Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Omaha, NE

679 
WWUS53 KOAX 110714
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
214 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NEC023-067-095-109-151-155-159-110730-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180511T0730Z/
Lancaster NE-Seward NE-Jefferson NE-Saline NE-Butler NE-Saunders NE-
Gage NE-
214 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN LANCASTER...SEWARD...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...SALINE...
SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHWESTERN SAUNDERS AND NORTHWESTERN GAGE
COUNTIES...

At 214 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles west of Brainard to 4 miles east of Beaver
Crossing to near Gilead, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Lincoln, Seward, Crete, Fairbury, Milford, Wilber,
Friend, Utica, Dorchester, Valparaiso, De Witt, Plymouth, Beaver
Crossing, Staplehurst, Western, Garland, Pleasant Dale, Dwight, Bee
and Ulysses.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 136 in Nebraska between mile markers 144 and 162.
 Highway 92 in Nebraska near mile marker 409.
 Interstate 80 in Nebraska between mile markers 366 and 395.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4015 9737 4120 9737 4109 9671 4069 9678
      4009 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0714Z 279DEG 39KT 4115 9712 4080 9720 4014 9744 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KERN

545 
WWUS53 KOAX 110728
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
228 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NEC023-067-095-109-151-155-159-110737-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-180511T0730Z/
Lancaster NE-Seward NE-Jefferson NE-Saline NE-Butler NE-Saunders NE-
Gage NE-
228 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN LANCASTER...SEWARD...
NORTHERN JEFFERSON...SALINE...SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHWESTERN SAUNDERS
AND NORTHWESTERN GAGE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 230 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty 
winds to 40 to 50 mph are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
southeastern and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4015 9737 4120 9737 4109 9671 4069 9678
      4009 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0727Z 280DEG 39KT 4113 9698 4078 9706 4012 9730 

$$

KERN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1139 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

A prominent mid-level trough is forecast to evolve across the
Interior West into Friday with broader-scale, downstream ridging
occurring across the Plains. Afternoon water vapor imagery hints
at weak impulse embedded within this flow regime over WY which
is combining with moist, upslope flow --north of a surface front
stretched diagonally across NE-- to foster thunderstorms over
eastern WY. Coalescing storm-scale outflows and the nocturnal
strengthening of a LLJ will foster upscale growth of storms into
an MCS which will likely track across northeast NE tonight, to
the cool side of the front which will re-orient along I-80. A
strong to severe storm or two is possible with the primary hazard
being damaging wind gusts. South of the surface front,
considerable strengthening of a cap attendant to the eastward
advection of an elevated-mixed layer plume into the central Plains
will likely inhibit the southward expansion of the MCS into
southeast NE and southwest IA.

On Friday, lingering clouds across northeast NE into west-central
IA and hot, humid conditions south of the surface front will lead
to a potentially large temperature gradient across our area by
afternoon (e.g. upper 50s north to around 90 south). While the air
mass south of the front will become moderately unstable by mid to
late afternoon, strong capping and slight mid-level height rises
cast considerable uncertainty on surface-based storm initiation.
The more probable scenario is for elevated storms to develop north
of the surface boundary late Friday evening with a risk for large
hail and locally damaging winds.

By this weekend, the surface front settles to the south of our
area while the western U.S. system cuts off over the Great Basin.
We will remain under the influence of ridging aloft, however
persistent low-level warm and moisture advections to the north of
the surface front will maintain a chance of thunderstorms across
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

The primary uncertainty in the long term is the evolution of the
aforementioned western U.S. cutoff low. Given that this system
will be part of a larger Rex block, the models vary when the block
will break down and the trough will edge east into the Plains.
Nonetheless, it does appear that a southwesterly mid-level flow
regime will be maintained across the central Plains through early
next week with a surface boundary in the area. As such,
precipitation chances will remain in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

Thunderstorms will be imminent at KOFK, lingering through about
10z at KOFK, affecting KLNK 09-12z, and KOMA 10-13z. Winds could
gust up to 35 knot at KOFK and KLNK. Then MVFR clouds develop
along and north of a frontal boundary that stalls across the
region. Clouds eventually go to IFR at KOFK by 12z. Additional
thunderstorms possible at KLNK/KOMA 12/02-06z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
342 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111045-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
342 PM CDT Thu May 10 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible after 9 PM,
mainly over northeast Nebraska. Locally damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard. Isolated severe storms are possible again
late Friday afternoon into evening from portions of southeast and
east-central Nebraska into southwest Iowa.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Thursday

Off-and-on thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast this
weekend through the middle of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely not be needed tonight or Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

NEZ030-110630-
Boone NE-
1251 AM CDT FRI MAY 11 2018

...Significant Weather Advisory for BOONE COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1250 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Wolbach, or 32 miles east of Ord, moving northeast
at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albion, St. Edward, Cedar Rapids, Primrose, Loretto and The Highway
14 And 56 Junction.

LAT...LON 4167 9829 4191 9784 4153 9783 4153 9788
      4151 9789 4151 9804 4150 9804 4150 9809
      4148 9810 4148 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0550Z 240DEG 34KT 4147 9833

FOBERT