Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
602 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Large scale pattern will pretty much remain stagnant the next couple
days, consisting of a large upper level high pressure dome centered
over the southwestern CONUS in additions to a downstream low
situated over Quebec with a trof extending southward through the
eastern CONUS. By Sunday night models prog a cut off low organizing
over the mid MS valley region.

Regional radar this afternoon showing isolated activity from
northern NE into western SD being kicked off by a few upper
impulses revealed via KUDX/KLNX VWP. CAMS indicate precip
activity will expand in areal coverage west of the CWA this
evening and gradually spread eastward into the CWA later tonight.

Precip chances continue the Saturday through Monday in response to
elevated mid layer lapse rates along with a series of minor
impulses ejecting out of the northern High Plains and dropping
into the central Plains. Models seem to be in good agreement
focusing axis of heaviest rainfall roughly from southwest SD to
southeast KS. As of now, it appears that portions of the CWA
western periphery will experience generous 3 day rainfall totals
with up to an inch or so possible.

With northwest flow prevailing aloft the next several days, below
normals temperatures are expected Saturday through Monday with highs
topping out in the mid 70s and lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

Large scale pattern becomes more progressive in response to the
western CONUS ridge breaking down with flow transitioning to
zonal. This will allow for a modest warming trend to begin late
next week with highs pushing into the low/mid 80s. Otherwise, both
the GFS/ECM suggest possible precip next Wednesday night in
response to a relatively weak cold front migrating into the
central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

A series of weak mid-level perturbations will translate through
the mid MO Valley tonight into Saturday, contributing to
potentially multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms. Winds
will remain light and generally variable in direction. Ceilings
will gradually lower overnight, but are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
401 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-281115-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
401 PM CDT Fri Jul 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms over much of the area
tonight ans Saturday. Severe storms are not expected.

Minor flooding will continue on the Missouri River around
Brownville.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Thunderstorm chances continue from Saturday night into Monday
night. Severe storms are not really expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through Saturday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
732 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

NEZ016-017-280100-
Pierce NE-Antelope NE-
732 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL PIERCE AND
NORTHEASTERN ANTELOPE COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 731 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Orchard, or 32 miles east of O'neill, moving southeast
at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plainview, Brunswick and Royal.

LAT...LON 4244 9803 4244 9802 4231 9769 4207 9790
      4228 9818
TIME...MOT...LOC 0031Z 303DEG 27KT 4232 9803

MEAD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
755 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

NEZ016-017-030-031-280130-
Madison NE-Pierce NE-Boone NE-Antelope NE-
755 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MADISON...SOUTHWESTERN
PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN ANTELOPE AND NORTHEASTERN BOONE COUNTIES UNTIL
830 PM CDT...

At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Oakdale, or 25 miles west of Norfolk, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Norfolk, Neligh, Battle Creek, Oakdale, Meadow Grove and Tilden.

LAT...LON 4214 9805 4230 9782 4207 9740 4184 9795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 328DEG 32KT 4213 9790

MEAD

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