Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
355 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

Main forecast problems are thunderstorms and precipitation
chances and any additional precipitation aggrivating flooding.
Unsettled weather pattern forecast through Monday over the area.
Upper low over northern Montana begins to drop southeast into the
central Rockies and central High Plains tonight into Sunday.

For the near term an upper shortwave trough is rotating around upper
low on the South/North Dakota border, This has caused convection
to develop over southeast South Dakota into northeast Nebraska.
There is about 1500 J/Kg of ML CAPE over eastern Nebraska with no
CIN. There is little bulk shear except in the 0-1Km layer. Expect
thunderstarms may continue to develop further south of the storm
near Knox County. Visible satellite imagery shows an area of
agitated cumulus from Knox County to near Platte County. So
thunderstorms may develop over that region his afternoon and then
spread east.

Models suggest an MCS may move across southern Kansas and northern
Oklahoma tonight. The question is how much this will impact
precipitation chances over Nebraska on Sunday. At this time it
appear some shower and thunderstorm will move across in the early
morning hours over eastern Nebraska.

As upper trough over Monatna moves into the high plains tommorow,
thunderstorm chances increase in eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa by midday Sunday and continues through the
evening.Thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight
on Sunday night as another MCS moves east across northern Kansas
and possibly the southern tier of counties in Nebraska. This will
have to be watched closely on Sunday night if there is a northward
trend for the MCS to move across. This may warrant a flood watch
over the southeast part of Nebraska as this area was inudated with
heavy rain this past week. Precipitation chances will continue
into Monday and Tuesday as upper low is cutoff off southeast South
Dakota on Monday amd moves into southern Minnesota aon the day
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

After Upper low exits the area on Tuesday, upper level ridging
begins to move into the area. Temperatures begin to warm up into
the 90s. There is a chance of thunderstorms on early Thursday and
Saturday morning as nighttime convection rides over the upper
ridge and moves across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018

A few isolated TSRA may pop up in the vicinity of KOMA for a few
hours this afternoon. Otherwise...VFR expected thru the fcst pd.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DEE

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