River Flood Warning 36, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Counties added to Flash Flood Watch which is now in effect through
this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

WV/IR imagery this morning showing near meridional flow over the
central and southern Plains resulting in a northward trajectory of
precip extending southward from the CWA all the way into OK.
Meanwhile GOES imagery was revealing the continuous influx of
moisture has pushed PWAT values close to 200 percent of normal over
eastern KS and most of the CWA.

Unfortunately precip chances remain in play over the next couple
days prompting WPC to include most of eastern Nebraska and southwest
Iowa in a slight risk for excessive rainfall today through
Wednesday.

Models advertise near meridional flow with embedded impulses
remaining in place over the central and southern Plains through
today. Radar mosaic the last several hours suggest area of precip
currently lifting out of northeast KS will take a slight turn to
the west through this morning with additional accumulation focused
over areas already in a Flash Flood
Watch...Seward/Butler/Jefferson/Lancaster/Gage counties. Given
this have opted to extend the Watch up through early afternoon.

Fast westerlies with a series of embedded impulses coupled with a
very moisture rich environment will mean prolonged periods of
additional rainfall will be possible then the next couple days.
Precip activity will continue tonight via persistent moist 315k
isentropic upglide. Wednesday morning a cold front is progged push
into the northern CWA. As the boundary drift farther south models
show focus for rain accumulations shifting to areas along and
south of the I-80 corridor Wednesday evening through Thursday
night. And as of now total accumulations per WPC suggest amounts
ranging 2 to 3 inches could be realized by early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Medium range models in rather good agreement showing rather
progressive large scale pattern through the extended periods along
with a series of embedded shortwave trofs crossing the region. And
with ample moisture expected to be in place additional rounds of
precip activity will be possible next weekend into early next week.

Below normal highs on Saturday in the lower/mid 70s. Warming
trend beginning Sunday then bringing highs to near normal in the
mid/upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Messy aviation forecast with MVFR to IFR conditions at KOFK much
of the forecast period. Conditions are mostly VFR in the KOMA and
KLNK areas for now, but will likely see deterioration of ceilings
down to MVFR or lower. IFR ceilings possible at KOMA and KLNK
mainly after 00Z. Winds will start out mainly from the south or
southeast but shift to west and then to northwest behind a weak
cold front that will be moving through the region.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NEZ051-053-065>068-
     078-088>090-092.

IA...None.
&&

UPDATE...DEE
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Miller

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
627 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

NEZ051-053-065>068-078-088>090-092-050130-
Saunders-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-
Johnson-Pawnee-
627 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional rounds of thunderstorms lifting out of eastern Kansas
may be accompanied by heavy rainfall into the early evening
hours. Because of the increasing chance for localized flooding a
Flash Flood Watch is in effect through this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rain will be possible
through Wednesday night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into early next week.

With potential for heavy rain the next few days, additional river
flooding could develop.

Minor flooding should continue along the Missouri River upstream
of Lewis and Clark Lake in northwest Knox county and along the
Missouri River south of Brownville.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. However,
spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over two inches
to the National Weather Service at Omaha.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050-052-091-093-050130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Douglas-
Nemaha-Richardson-
627 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Additional rounds of thunderstorms lifting out of eastern Kansas
may be accompanied by heavy rainfall into the early evening
hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rain will be possible
through Wednesday night.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into early next week.

With potential for heavy rain the next few days, additional river
flooding could develop.

Minor flooding should continue along the Missouri River upstream
of Lewis and Clark Lake in northwest Knox county and along the
Missouri River south of Brownville.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. However,
spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts over two inches
to the National Weather Service at Omaha.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
403 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
09/04/2018                   LANCASTER          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING NEAR 73RD AND O STREETS, PARTIES HAD TO BE
            RESCUED FROM A FLOODED VEHICLE. TIME FROM DISPATCH. ALSO
            REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
445 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NNE LINCOLN           40.89N 96.65W
09/04/2018                   LANCASTER          NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER INUNDATED THIS AREA. WATER WAS 3 TO 4 FEET DEEP
            COVERING 75 TO 100 FOOT SECTION OF THE ROAD. AT THE TIME
            OF THE REPORT, THE WATER WAS NOT FLOWING MUCH. REPORT
            FROM LINCOLN PD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
447 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLOOD            MURDOCK                 40.93N 96.28W
09/04/2018                   CASS               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING REPORTED IN THE MURDOCK AREA, ALSO ON THE
            NORTHWEST SIDE OF LOUISVILLE LAKES AREA.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
509 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     FLOOD            WEEPING WATER           40.87N 96.14W
09/04/2018                   CASS               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR FLOODING IN WEEPING WATER CAMPGROUND AREA, ON THE
            LOWER LEVEL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
621 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DOUGLAS                 40.59N 96.39W
09/04/2018  M3.50 INCH       OTOE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.5 INCHS OF RAIN SINCE 6 PM LAST EVENING. BEFORE THAT
            THE RAIN AMOUNT FOR THIS EVENT WAS 3 INCHES, SO THAT PUTS
            THEIR STORM TOTAL UP TO 6.5 INCHES.

0605 AM     HEAVY RAIN       DOUGLAS                 40.59N 96.39W
09/04/2018  M3.50 INCH       OTOE               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.5 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE 6 PM LAST EVENING. BEFORE THAT
            THEY HAD ABOUT 3 INCHES. THIS PUTS STORM TOTAL FOR THE
            PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO 6.5 INCHES.

&&