Alert archive / California / High Surf Warnings in 2018

High Surf Warning 2, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

December 14, 20186 counties in California

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA issued this high surf warning at Dec 14, 2018, 2:27 PM PST for 6 counties in California. It took effect at Dec 16, 2018, 9:00 AM PST. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 14, 2018, 2:27 PM PST (22:27 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 16, 2018, 9:00 AM PST
Expired
Dec 17, 2018, 9:00 PM PST
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

Counties City and County of San Francisco, CA, Marin County, CA, Monterey County, CA, San Mateo County, CA, Santa Cruz County, CA, Sonoma County, CA

The radar

The San Francisco radar (KMUX), 53 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Oakland, CA (KOAK), launched 12:00Z, 10.5 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2018-12-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Oakland, CA at 12:00Z on 2018-12-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 213 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
213 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
269 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

890 
WHUS46 KMTR 142227
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
227 PM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell will impact the coast Sunday
into Monday with breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-150700-
/O.NEW.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
227 PM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM PST
MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a High
Surf Warning, which is in effect from 9 AM Sunday to 9 PM PST
Monday. 

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will create
  breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with favored locations occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet.

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day Sunday, 
  peaking Sunday night into Monday morning. Waves will begin to 
  gradually subside late Monday night into Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing
  over large rocks and jetties. They can easily move large logs
  and other beach debris and cause localized beach erosion.
  Localized coastal flooding is possible. Use extreme caution 
  near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of 
  sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. The 
  surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents and breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, life threatening
waves will impact the shoreline. It is advised that people remain
off of and away from the shoreline during this event.

&&

$$
9 follow-up statements
427 
WHUS46 KMTR 150456
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
856 PM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell will impact the coast
Sunday into Monday with breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-151300-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
856 PM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with favored locations 
  occasionally exceeding 50 feet. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day Sunday, 
  peaking Sunday night into Monday morning. Waves will begin to 
  gradually subside late Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. They can easily move 
  large logs and other beach debris and cause localized beach 
  erosion. Localized coastal flooding is possible. Use extreme 
  caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be 
  capable of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean 
  water. The surf zone will be dangerous due to strong currents 
  and breaking waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, life threatening
waves will impact the shoreline. It is advised that people remain
off of and away from the shoreline during this event.

&&

$$
418 
WHUS46 KMTR 151137
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
337 AM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest seen this 
season so far, will impact the coast Sunday into Monday with 
breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-160700-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
337 AM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will create
  breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally exceeding
  50 feet in spots. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day Sunday, 
  peaking Sunday night into Monday morning. Waves will begin to 
  gradually subside late Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing
  over large rocks and jetties. They can easily move large logs
  and other beach debris and cause localized beach erosion.
  Localized coastal flooding is possible. Use extreme caution near
  the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of sweeping
  people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold water
  shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an 
  involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good 
  swimmer. The surf zone will be very dangerous due to strong 
  currents and powerful breaking waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, life threatening
waves will impact the shoreline. It is advised that people remain
off and well away from the shoreline during this event.

&&

$$
407 
WHUS46 KMTR 152157
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
157 PM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast Sunday into Monday with breaking 
waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-160730-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
157 PM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will create
  breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally exceeding
  50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day Sunday, 
  peaking Sunday night into Monday morning. Waves will begin to 
  gradually subside late Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing
  over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily move large
  logs and other beach debris and cause localized beach erosion.
  Localized coastal flooding is also possible. Use extreme 
  caution near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable 
  of sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. 
  Cold water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause
  an involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good 
  swimmer. The surf zone will be very dangerous due to strong 
  currents and powerful breaking waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging 
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
015 
WHUS46 KMTR 160638
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
1038 PM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast Sunday into Monday with breaking
waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-161700-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
1038 PM PST Sat Dec 15 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 9 PM
PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day Sunday, 
  peaking Sunday night into Monday morning. Waves will begin to 
  gradually subside late Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily 
  move large logs and other beach debris and cause localized 
  beach erosion. Localized coastal flooding is also possible. 
  Use extreme caution near the surf zone as these large waves 
  will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and 
  turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac 
  arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex 
  causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will 
  be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
738 
WHUS46 KMTR 161650
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
850 AM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast today into Monday with breaking 
waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-170600-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.181216T1700Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
850 AM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build through the day, peaking
  tonight into Monday morning. Waves will begin to gradually 
  subside late Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily 
  move large logs and other beach debris and cause localized 
  beach erosion. Localized coastal flooding is also possible. 
  Use extreme caution near the surf zone as these large waves 
  will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and 
  turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac 
  arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex 
  causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will 
  be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
221 
WHUS46 KMTR 170519
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
919 PM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast tonight through Monday with 
breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-171500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
919 PM PST Sun Dec 16 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST MONDAY...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build overnight and peak through 
  Monday morning. Waves will begin to gradually subside late 
  Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily 
  move large logs and other beach debris and cause localized 
  beach erosion. Localized coastal flooding is also possible. 
  Use extreme caution near the surf zone as these large waves 
  will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and 
  turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac 
  arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex 
  causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will 
  be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
463 
WHUS46 KMTR 171431
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
631 AM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast tonight through Monday with
breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-180500-
/O.CON.KMTR.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
631 AM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will build overnight and peak through 
  Monday morning. Waves will begin to gradually subside late 
  Monday night into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily 
  move large logs and other beach debris and cause localized 
  beach erosion. Localized coastal flooding is also possible. 
  Use extreme caution near the surf zone as these large waves 
  will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and 
  turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac 
  arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex 
  causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will 
  be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
435 
WHUS46 KMTR 171456 CCA
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
656 AM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...A powerful west to northwest swell, the largest so far this
season, will impact the coast tonight through Monday with
breaking waves of 25 to 40 feet...

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-180500-
/O.COR.KMTR.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181218T0500Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
656 AM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...HIGH SURF WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM PST THIS
EVENING...

* WAVES AND SURF...A powerful west to northwest swell will 
  create breakers of 25 to 40 feet, with breakers occasionally 
  exceeding 50 feet at favored break points along the coast. 

* TIMING...Energetic waves will peak today before gradually
  subsiding late tonight into Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to 
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and 
  washing over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily 
  move large logs and other beach debris and cause localized 
  beach erosion. Localized coastal flooding is also possible. 
  Use extreme caution near the surf zone as these large waves 
  will be capable of sweeping people into the frigid and 
  turbulent ocean water. Cold water shock may cause cardiac 
  arrest, and it also can cause an involuntary gasp reflex 
  causing drowning, even for a good swimmer. The surf zone will 
  be very dangerous due to strong currents and powerful breaking 
  waves. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves are
expected to pound the shoreline, bringing potentially damaging
and life-threatening conditions. It is advised that people remain
away from the shoreline during this event, especially staying off
rocks, jetties and beaches.

&&

$$
668 
WHUS46 KMTR 180447
CFWMTR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
847 PM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...A large WNW swell will continue to impact the coast Monday
night through late Tuesday...

.The very large, very long period WNW swell that arrived late 
Sunday has decreased both in terms of period and overall wave 
height but will remain large enough to be a coastal hazard through
the day Tuesday. As a result, a high surf advisory will replace
the high surf warning at 9PM this evening. Large breaking waves 
in the surf zone with coastal run up will continue to be a hazard 
even as the waves diminish through Tuesday. NW swell energy is 
expected to rebuild once again later this week.



CAZ006-505-509-529-530-181500-
/O.EXP.KMTR.SU.W.0002.000000T0000Z-181218T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KMTR.SU.Y.0004.181218T0500Z-181219T0100Z/
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
847 PM PST Mon Dec 17 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM PST TUESDAY...
...HIGH SURF WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 9 PM PST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in San Francisco has issued a High
Surf Advisory, which is in effect until 5 PM PST Tuesday. 

* WAVES AND SURF...A large WNW swell of 16 to 22 feet at 17 to 19
  seconds will create breakers of 20 to 30 feet. Locally larger 
  breakers are possible at favored break points along the coast.

* TIMING...Wave energy has peaked and will remain large but
  gradually subside Monday night through Tuesday. 

* IMPACTS...Large breaking waves along the coast will lead to
  increased wave run-up on beaches with waves topping and washing
  over large rocks and jetties. These waves can easily move large
  logs and other beach debris and cause localized beach erosion.
  Localized coastal flooding is also possible. Use extreme caution
  near the surf zone as these large waves will be capable of
  sweeping people into the frigid and turbulent ocean water. Cold
  water shock may cause cardiac arrest, and it also can cause an
  involuntary gasp reflex causing drowning, even for a good
  swimmer. The surf zone will be very dangerous due to strong
  currents and powerful breaking waves. 

A High Surf Advisory Means That High Surf Will Affect Beaches In
The Advisory area...producing rip currents and localized beach
erosion.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high surf warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf warning went out at Dec 14, 9:54 AM PST, 4 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 14, 9:54 AM PST, 4 hours 33 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
954 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will produce light rain today
and tonight, especially for areas north of the Golden Gate.
Scattered showers may continue into Saturday, mainly for the North
Bay. A stronger and wetter system is then expected to produce
widespread rain across our entire region Sunday afternoon and
Sunday night. A return to dry weather is expected late Monday
through early Thursday as an upper level ridge builds into the
area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 08:40 AM PST Friday... Satellite imagery
shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the forecast
area early this morning. These high clouds are associated with an
advancing cold frontal boundary which will bring generally light
rain to the North Bay and even lighter precipitation to most
portions of the San Francisco Bay Area and Santa Cruz mountains
later today and tonight. Southerly winds increased ahead of this
system with gusts up to 50 mph reported at the higher peaks and
ridges across the region overnight.

Confidence is high that the surface frontal boundary will stall
out as the upper level support exits the region, however, light
precipitation is expected to continue over the North Bay as a
weaker secondary pulse interacts with the lingering mid level
moisture left behind by today/tonights system. An extended
duration of very light precipitation is then possible over
Sonoma, Marin, and possibly Napa counties as a result of this
stalled air mass boundary. Total accumulations of around a quarter
of an inch are possible for North Bay valley urban locations,
while locally 1/2-2/3 are possible over the highest peaks/ridges
of the North Bay. Precipitations will see the greatest disparity
across the immediate SF Bay Shoreline, where up to .20 is possible
along the San Mateo/San Francisco shorelines but as little as a
few hundredths are possible on the south and east sides of San
Jose.

A potent storm system is then set to impact the forecast area
primarily Sunday into Monday, with widespread moderate to locally
heavy rainfall, gusty southerly winds, and the largest waves
along the coast so far this season. See the BEACHES sections for
more information on the conditions along the coastline and
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION for more details on the upcoming storm
systems. Current forecast looks on track with only a few minor
tweaks made to the grids this morning. The main forecast
challenge of the day will be fine tuning the details of the two
upcoming storm systems and the likely issuance of a High Surf
Warning for the upcoming significant WNW swell train SUN-MON.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...as of 03:32 AM PST Friday...Overnight
satellite imagery reveals widespread mid-upper level clouds
spreading over California. The high clouds are associated with
storm system moving in to the PacNW and a cold front off CA. Hard
to see it on satellite given the high clouds, but several stations
around the region are reporting patchy fog. Have added patchy fog
to the N and E Valleys, SF Bay and the Bay Shoreline this
morning. No reports of dense fog, but 1-5 mile range seems likely.
Two other notable items overnight are the temps and wind. The 24
hour trend showing many locations running a few degrees warmer
than last night given the high clouds. Southerly winds have also
ramped up as the cold front slowly approaches from the west. Winds
are strongest over the higher terrain - Santa Rita Peak has gusts
up to 35 mph.

The cold front currently off the coast will track eastward today
bringing a chance of precip to the Bay Area. There could be a few
pre- frontal showers over the coastal mountains early today, but
the best chance for precip will occur with the front this
afternoon. Rainfall chances continue to be highest mainly north of
the Santa Cruz Mountains. A few showers are possible across the
south, but less likely. The frontal boundary still appears to
stall over the Bay Area late today and eventually lift northward
back over the North Bay. The timeline looks like this - precip
develops over the North Bay this afternoon, moves south and
stalls/weakens early tonight and lifts north early Saturday. Total
rainfall with this front will be up to a 0.10" southern areas,
0.25-0.50" Santa Cruz Mts and North Bay and 0.10-0.25" SF
Bay/East Bay. Lingering showers over the North Bay will continue
through early Sunday.

The much advertised and anticipated potent storm system is still
on track for Sunday. Moisture and lift will increase through out
the day on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west.
Unlike today's cold front the weekend system will have more
moisture to work with. Latest guidance shows the front tapping
into a plume of 1.1-1.35" PWAT. Integrated water vapor transport
(IVT) is still projected to be over 500 kg/m/s, which would be an
Atmospheric River in the moderate category. Given the PWATs and
IVT values moderate to heavy rain will be possible Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night as the front pushes through. Brief
heavy rain may lead to ponding on roads and minor urban/small
stream flooding. Weather Prediction Center does have portions of
NorCal in excessive rainfall threat on Sunday, but not the Bay
Area specifically. All that being said, did increase rainfall
amounts with system number two for Sunday into Monday. Rainfall
will be greatest over the North Bay and higher terrain - 1-3"
locally 3+" North Bay and Santa Lucias. Other locations will
generally be 0.50-1" and lesser amounts in some rain shadowed
locations and southern Monterey/San Benito. In addition to rain,
winds will once again increase on Sunday with gusts in the 30-40
mph range.

Drier weather returns on Tuesday/Wednesday with weak ridging
aloft. The ridging will lead to a brief warm up midweek as well.

The extended forecast is more uncertain as long range models show
another system impacting the region, but details vary on timing
and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION....as of 9:50 AM PST Friday...A mix of VFR-MVFR
conditions expected as visibility and cloud bases lower ahead of a
weak frontal boundary approaching the region. Southerly winds
will also increase through late morning ahead of the boundary.
Light rain and briefly lower ceilings possible across the San
Francisco Bay Area terminals with lingering precipitation over the
North Bay into tonight. VFR conditions more likely to persist for
the Monterey Bay terminals as the frontal boundary stalls to the
north.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR conditions to persist through the morning
with an increase in southerly winds. Wind gusts increase to around
20 KT early this afternoon with increased probability of light
rain and MVFR ceilings developing. Winds diminish and overall
flight conditions improve late this evening as the boundary stalls
and shifts northward overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions to persist with high level
cloud deck over the region. Should see FEW/SCT lower clouds
develop ahead of a weakening frontal boundary yet confidence is
low for any MVFR and/or -RA over the terminals through the
forecast period.

&&

.BEACHES...as of 6:15 AM PST Friday...A potent storm system passing
south of Aleutian Islands will move nearly due east over the coming
days. This eastward trajectory will create a dynamic fetch zone
where the strongest winds of the storm system will continuously
increase the energy within a swell train on the southern flank of
the storm, resulting in a very large, long period WNW wave train
aimed at the California coast. Very long period forerunners will
arrive through the day Sunday and will bring a significantly
increased risk of rip currents and sneakers waves to the coast. The
largest waves are then forecast to arrive Sunday night through
Monday morning, with peak swells of 17 to 21 ft at 19 to 21 seconds
currently expected. Large breaking waves of 25 to 40 ft will be
possible at west and northwest facing locations, with breakers up to
or exceeding 50 ft at favored break points along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...as of 3:44 AM PST Friday...Increasing southerly winds
will develop today ahead of an arriving frontal boundary. In
addition, a moderate northwest swell will generate steep fresh
swell through Friday, bringing locally hazardous seas to small
craft vessels. A very large, long period northwest swell will
arrive late this weekend and continue into the first part of next
week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tday...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
             SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm
             SCA...Rough Bar Advisory for SF Bar
             SCA...Mry Bay from 10 AM
             SCA...SF Bay from 10 AM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP/MM
AVIATION: RGass
MARINE: Canepa

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Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 14, 5:40 AM PST, 8 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
540 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

CAZ006-505-509-529-530-151400-
San Francisco-
Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore-
San Francisco Peninsula Coast-Northern Monterey Bay-
Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast-
540 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the San Francisco Bay Area.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will bring rain to the Bay Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A very large long period northwest swell is expected to begin
arriving on Sunday and continue into the first part of next week.
This will result in hazardous beach conditions due to:

*  large run-up waves, strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and
   strong longshore currents.

A high surf warning will likely be issued once the wave energy is
within 48 hours of arriving.

Also, an active weather pattern is expected to continue Saturday
through Monday morning. A stronger and wetter system is expected
to produce widespread rain across our entire region Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night along with locally strong and gusty
winds.

Hazards associated with the second system include:

*  Possible period of moderate to heavy rain, which may result in
   temporary local flooding of low lying areas and ponding on
   roadways.

*  Locally strong and gusty winds, especially along the coast and
   in the hills.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

A return to dry weather is expected late Monday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge builds into the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
No spotter activation is expected.

CAZ506>508-510>513-516>518-528-151400-
North Bay Interior Valleys-North Bay Mountains-
San Francisco Bay Shoreline-East Bay Interior Valleys-
East Bay Hills and the Diablo Range-Santa Cruz Mountains-
Santa Clara Valley Including San Jose-
Southern Salinas Valley/Arroyo Seco and Lake San Antonio-
Santa Lucia Mountains and Los Padres National Forest-
Mountains Of San Benito County And Interior Monterey County
Including Pinnacles National Park-
Northern Salinas Valley/Hollister Valley and Carmel Valley-
540 AM PST Fri Dec 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for the San Francisco Bay Area.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A cold front will bring rain to the Bay Area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

An active weather pattern is expected to continue Saturday
through Monday morning. A stronger and wetter system is expected
to produce widespread rain across our entire region Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night along with locally strong and gusty
winds.

Hazards associated with the second system include:

*  Possible period of moderate to heavy rain, which may result in
   temporary local flooding of low lying areas and ponding on
   roadways.

*  Locally strong and gusty winds, especially along the coast and
   in the hills.

Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

A return to dry weather is expected late Monday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge builds into the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
No spotter activation is expected.

Nearby

High Surf Warnings in California, 2018Every high surf warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.