Flood Watch 2, NWS Missoula, MT

411 
WGUS65 KMSO 060915
FFAMSO

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Missoula MT
315 AM MDT Sun May 6 2018

MTZ001-061015-
/O.CAN.KMSO.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-180506T1900Z/
/00000.0.SM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kootenai/Cabinet Region-
315 AM MDT Sun May 6 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for the Yaak River near Troy has been cancelled. A
flood warning has been posted in its place.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
339 AM MDT Sat May 5 2018

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible
today, increasing across the area this afternoon and evening.
Locations across northwest Montana near the Canadian border and
across central Idaho into southwest Montana stand the best chance
to see a storm this afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler today due to cloud cover across the region.

A more organized system is still expected Sunday afternoon into
Monday across much of western Montana and central Idaho. The
atmosphere will destabilize enough to have a fairly widespread
threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.
Atmospheric moisture will be abundant with this system, which
could lead to some locally heavy rain, along with small hail and
gusty winds. The heaviest rain is still anticipated through
portions of central Idaho into west- central Montana. The
convective nature of storms could cause a threat to vulnerable
burn scars due to locally very heavy rain.

A cool down is anticipated for Monday behind Sunday's weather
system. Precipitation will likely linger across western Montana,
though amounts will begin to taper off.

One big concern going into early next week is the potential for
river and small stream flooding as snowmelt accelerates due to
warm overnight temperatures and continued above normal high
temperatures. This is especially true across western Montana,
where many rivers are already running very high, if not over flood
stage. River forecast models continue to trend toward earlier
rises and slightly higher peak flows for next week at several
river points. Stay tuned for updates as several rivers are
expected to exceed flood stages by the mid part of next week.

Warm and dry conditions are expected for Tuesday into early Wednesday,
warming temperatures to roughly 10 degrees above normal for this
time of year. The next weather system approaches the region late
Wednesday into Thursday, with northwest Montana currently being
favored for the heavier precipitation. Confidence in the forecast
for Friday and beyond is not great due to model inconsistencies.

&&

.AVIATION...Mid to high level cloud cover will be fairly common
today ahead of an approaching disturbance. Another round of
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated this afternoon and
evening, with the highest threat again occurring across northwest
Montana and through central Idaho into southwest Montana. KSMN and
KBTM stand the highest potential at seeing a thunderstorm this
afternoon. Otherwise, general winds will be relatively light and
from the west to southwest in the higher elevations.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&