Wind Advisory 14, NWS Morristown, TN

873 
WWUS74 KMRX 170333
NPWMRX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1133 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...The Strongest Winds Associated With Florence Have Passed...

TNZ018-043-045>047-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170445-
/O.EXP.KMRX.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-180917T0400Z/
Johnson-Southeast Greene-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-Southeast Carter-
Lee-Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
Including the cities of Mountain City, Cedar Creek, Erwin, 
Elizabethton, Roan Mountain, Jonesville, Wise, Norton, Gate City,
Lebanon, and Abingdon
1133 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

The strongest winds associated with the remnants of Tropical
Depression Florence have passed, therefore the wind advisory will
be allowed to expire on schedule.

$$

CDG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
348 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...
Remnants of Florence is moving across northern South Carolina this
morning and will move north to northwest into the area overnight.

Bands of light to moderate rain, some locally heavy, moving across
southwest Virginia, northeast and central sections of Tennessee,
and northern Plateau. This band is in response to strong 850mb jet
pulling abundant tropical moisture with the main forcing being
isentropic lift.

The strong 850mb jet will lift north of the area soon after
midnight ending the more concentrated rain band. Any flooding
issues (localized at best) will diminish greatly after midnight
with more scattered showers in nature early Monday morning.

In regard to the strong 850mb jet (50-55kts), feel strong and
gusty winds will continue to be felt over the higher elevations,
such as High Knob. Isolated down trees are possible, so will
continue with the wind advisory for southwest Virginia and
northeast Tennessee Mountains through midnight.

For Monday, remnants of Florence will be north of the area. Models
are in good agreement with pulling a trough axis through the
region. Airmass will be marginally unstable with plenty of
moisture remaining (PWs near 2 inches). Scattered to broken areas
of showers are expected with a thunderstorm possible over the
southeast Tennessee. Some localized heavy rains are definitely
possible.

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
The remnant low of Florence will continue to move away from the
region on Monday night and Tuesday morning with a trough over the
Southern Appalachians. Expect cloud cover to remain with some
lingering showers overnight, but should see a decrease in precip
late Monday night and Tuesday morning as the surface trough axis
moves east. This will result in NW flow advecting drier air near the
surface with subsidence aloft as ridging increases from the west.

With drier air across the region and anomalously strong upper-level
ridging, over the 90th percentile of climatology, expect dry
conditions over the area for Wednesday and Thursday with the
potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm (10 percent) on
Thursday across the higher terrain as low-level moisture begins to
return from the south. By Friday, ridge axis shifts to our east with
southwesterly flow resulting in a return of low-level moisture and
slight chance PoPs across the higher elevations on Friday.

This weekend, models show an upper trough and surface low across
Quebec with a trailing cold front through the Great Lakes and Ohio
Valley moving slowly south and east. Upper-level flow becomes nearly
zonal across CONUS with winds paralleling the front and slowing its
progress south. For this reason, do not believe the cold front will
make it far enough south to significantly affect our weather next
weekend and backed off higher Superblend PoPs. However, a diurnal
trend will be expected in PoPs through the weekend with chance PoPs
in the higher elevations and mostly slight chance in the lower
elevations.

With the anomalous ridge through the week, expect anomalous
temperatures which will be about 5 to 10 degrees above normal most
days from midweek through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  82  69  88 /  40  40  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  79  68  85 /  70  70  50  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  78  68  85 /  70  80  50  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  78  67  82 /  80  70  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Johnson-Northwest
     Carter-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Washington-Wise.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
337 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-171945-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
337 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 /237 PM CDT Sun Sep 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The remnants of Florence will track across the southern
Appalachian region through tonight. Expect rain to be light to
moderate, possibly heavy at times. Localized flooding is possible
across southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, and Smoky
Mountains. Gusty easterly winds out ahead of the storm will
affect the higher elevations of eastern Tennessee and southwest
Virginia this evening.

In addition, since the headwaters of the French Broad, Pigeon,
and Nolichucky Rivers originate from the western North Carolina
mountains, these streams will become bank full or go into flood
beginning later today or tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.