Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...The mid/upper level ridge will
continue to dominate our weather in this persistent pattern. Gradual
moistening is occurring, and as expected convection coverage is
higher today than yesterday. Should see isolated to scattered
convection again tomorrow, with the highest PoPs across the south
and higher terrain areas. It will be hot again tomorrow afternoon,
similar to today. Will not stray far from MAV temps.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...
Anomalously strong ridging over the region will continue to be the
main story early in the extended while a breakdown in the ridge mid
to late week will bring increasing chances for scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Models have been consistently showing the ridge
strengthening through early this week with 500 mb heights in excess
of 590 dam on Monday and Tuesday. NAEFS anomalies indicate this
would place the ridge in the 99th percentile for this time of year.
This is a strong signal for hot, above normal temperatures through
early week. Expect to see temperatures continue to be 5 to 10
degrees above normal with heat indices approaching 100. This is
forecast to be just below heat advisory criteria, but it will be
hot, nonetheless. Could be within a few degrees of record highs or
record high minimums on several days.

With strong ridging, expect mostly dry conditions early in the week.
With differential heating along the terrain, expect the higher
elevations to be a focus for convective development in the
afternoons. There will be plenty of energy for those thunderstorms
that can develop with MUCAPE of between 2000 to 3000 J/Kg. Still,
with weak wind shear around or less than 10 kt, expect convection to
be short-lived and very pulse-like in nature. A few of these
thunderstorms could make their way into the lower elevations, but
expect them to be mainly confined to the mountains and plateau.

A shortwave trough across the Northeast CONUS and a trailing surface
front across the Ohio Valley will weaken the ridge on Wednesday and
Thursday with PoPs on the increase, especially across northern
sections of the forecast area. Still have questions about the setup
for later in the week as the GFS is at odds with other global models
such as the ECMWF and Canadian. The GFS shows ridging trying to hold
on while the ECMWF and Canadian both show troughing amplifying
across the region. Regardless, the weakening of the ridge will
likely lead to higher PoPs and better chances of scattered precip.
There does seem to be good agreement that this probably isn't the
end of the ridge. Global models continue to show additional ridging
trying to build back in next weekend with the hot, above normal
pattern trying to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  94  73  94 /  30  30  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  20  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       72  93  72  92 /  20  20  20  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  92  69  90 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

LW/JB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-181900-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
250 PM EDT Sun Jun 17 2018 /150 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

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