Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
300 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...Upper heights continue to
rise across the southern Appalachians this afternoon atop weak
high pressure at the surface allowing for ample heating. With
that, convective initiation has occurred across the higher terrain
of both the mtns/Plateau. Further heating this afternoon is
expected to favor additional coverage in the southern TN valley as
convective temps are reached/exceeded. Guidance still seems to
suggest that any weak capping will hold for valley locations north
of I40. Thus, the fcst features high end chance to low likely
pops close to the GA/AL/TN lines, tapering to slight chances along
I40, then down to non mentionable levels closer to KY. As for
threats today, any convection that does occur could reach to
heights supportive of small hail. Likewise, given relatively weak
motion vectors, think storms could also present a concern for
brief heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding, although not
likely. Otherwise, coverage will diminish with heating loss
tonight leading into a partly cloudy evening. Ample moisture in
the decoupled BL could lead to another night of patchy fog, the
most dense of which is favored in the valleys of extreme northeast
TN and southwest VA, as well an any locales receiving good
rainfall today. Much the same on Monday as mainly diurnal heating
induced convection is favored while a weak upper disturbance
amidst the broader H5 flow rotates atop the FL gulf coast. With
that, pops will be a bit higher as deeper moisture advects
northward, therefore the fcst will feature regionwide likely pops
on Monday. Temperatures on Monday with remain slightly above
normal levels

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...The Northeastern
U.S. upper trough amplifies early in the period helping to push a
frontal boundary south through the forecast area. There will be a
higher chance of showers and thunderstorms across the forecast
area on Tuesday ahead of the front. However, probability will be
dropping across much of the area through the end of the work week
as drier and slightly more stable air filters into the region.
Moisture and instability will be gradually increasing over the
weekend ahead of another Midwest upper trough. A few more showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across the area in this
environment, so raised pops into a higher chance category over the
weekend. High temperatures will be generally in the lower and
middle 80s through Wednesday, and then may inch up a bit into the
middle and upper 80s in the slightly drier airmass behind the
boundary. Lows will be mainly in the lower and middle 60s,
although may be a little warmer as moisture returns later in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  82  66  82 /  40  60  30  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  68  82  64  82 /  20  60  30  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  84  65  83 /  20  60  30  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  82  61  80 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

CDG/TH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
304 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-211915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
304 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 /204 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the afternoon hours. Some of these storms could become
strong with small hail, gusty winds, cloud to ground lightning,
and brief heavy rainfall being the primary threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

CDG

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