Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 PM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...

The focus of the short-term forecast will be on the cold front
approaching from the west. Current radar imagery indicates a line of
showers and storms developing along this boundary across the
Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures are in the the low to mid 80s with
dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s, producing SBCAPE values of
1500-2500 J/Kg across the region. The main upper level trough is
well to the north across the Great Lakes but 0-6 bulk shear values
are around 20-30 kts. Seeing a minor increase in PW values ahead of
the boundary with some low-level convergence. PW values range from
around 1.4-1.6 inches, which is around the 50th-75th percentile for
early June. Forecast thinking has not really changed from previous,
expect there will be a few strong to marginally severe storms this
afternoon through about 6pm. Damaging winds, hail up to quarter
size, and localized flash flooding from heavy rainfall will be the
main impacts. Models all indicate that the front will move through
rather quickly this afternoon and evening with dry air moving in
overnight. Dewpoints are currently in the upper 50s to low 60s
across W TN.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler tonight with lows in the mid
50s to low 60s. The drier air and winds around 5-10 mph should
prevent any widespread fog formation tonight. A beautiful day is
forecast on Monday with dewpoints in the 50s highs in the upper 70s
and low 80s with no rain chances.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)...

Dry northwesterly flow will continue over the Southern
Appalachian Region Monday night into Tuesday for continued dry
conditions and normal to slightly below normal seasonal
temperatures. Tuesday night...a broad...weakening boundary will
settle south and into our northern areas. There may be enough
moisture and lift associated with the boundary to generate a few
isolated showers...possibly with a stray rumble of thunder. By
Wendesday...the boundary should weaken just enough to minimize
the chance of convection but should still generate a few bands of
clouds...so expect a mainly dry day. Model and run consistency
becomes rather poor through the rest of the extended and
confidence is low. The current tend is towards a dry Thursday.
Friday is shaping up to be a transition day with the next system
moving into the region for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             61  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  82  57  82 /  10   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  82  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              55  78  54  79 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

MA/MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
313 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-040715-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
313 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018 /213 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today as a cold front swings through, especially during the
afternoon. Some of these storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds the primary threat. Large hail and localized
flooding will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

TNZ069-071-031945-
Knox TN-NW Blount TN-
253 PM EDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KNOX AND NORTH CENTRAL
BLOUNT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Knoxville, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Maryville, Alcoa, Louisville, Rockford, Eagleton Village,
Lake Forest, Bearden, Powell and Seymour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8397 3599 8412 3610 8397 3590 8377
      3590 8378 3589 8378
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 321DEG 11KT 3595 8397

mjb

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