Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...
A cold front, currently located near Nashville, will slowly move
into the area from the west tonight. Training cells may give a small
risk of localized flooding problems through the evening. Lightning
activity will remain isolated. With the mid to upper level flow from
SW to NE, parallel to the front, the front will make very slow
eastward progress through tomorrow, becoming positioned along the
spine of the Appalachians by the end of the day. With a moist air
mass to the east of it, PoPs will remain in the high chance to
likely range, with QPF amounts averaging around a half inch in the
eastern sections. Broken to overcast cloud cover through the day
will hold high temps in the 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...
The forecast starts out with a relatively decent pop due to the
early week frontal boundary in the vicinity. Trended pops back a
bit later Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, as convergence
weakens along the boundary. On Wednesday, models try to bring a
weak upper level wave back into the Mid Mississippi Valley region
with some low level troughiness developing across the Mid South.
Because there will be some instability and lift present from this
weak system, used a broadbrushed pop for showers and thunderstorms
and generally maintained this idea into Thursday with a
decreasing pop trend into the weekend. The latter part of the
forecast gets a little interesting with Florence predicted to move
onshore along the Southeast Atlantic Coast, with with the center
line path of the confidence cone indicating that the rather strong
tropical circulation may cross the North Carolina border just
north of the Greater Myrtle Beach area in South Carolina sometime
Friday morning. For our late week weather, tried to stay with a
scenario that utilizes increasing subsidence along with a slightly
drier easterly or northeasterly flow ahead of Florence. Of course
there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in this forecast, and
late week weather conditions will come into better focus in the
next few days. Temperatures will remain rather warm in the
extended, with highs and lows several degrees above normal;
especially later in the week, if the drying and subsidence concept
occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  79  67  85 /  80  50  20  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  70  79  65  84 /  80  50  30  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  77  65  84 /  80  50  20  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  79  64  84 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-101915-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 9 2018 /206 PM CDT Sun Sep 9 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms tonight could bring periods of heavy
rain. Some locations that see multiple rounds of prolonged heavy
rain could experience flooding, especially in poorly draining
locations. The most likely areas to see potential flooding issues
would be in southwest Virginia, and northern portions of the
Cumberland Plateau.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Monday. Some
locations that see multiple rounds of prolonged heavy rain could
experience flooding, especially in poorly draining locations. The
most likely areas to see potential flooding issues would be in
the Tennessee mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

TNZ036-067>069-071-086-092045-
Anderson TN-Northwest Monroe TN-Roane TN-Loudon TN-Knox TN-
NW Blount TN-
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LOUDON...SOUTHWESTERN KNOX...
SOUTH CENTRAL ANDERSON...NORTHWESTERN BLOUNT AND SOUTHEASTERN ROANE
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Loudon, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Knoxville, Oak Ridge, Maryville, Clinton, Lenoir City, Alcoa, Loudon,
Farragut, Louisville, Rockford, Friendsville, Philadelphia, Karns,
Tellico Village, Bearden and Bradbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8436 3571 8451 3612 8420 3586 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 224DEG 28KT 3570 8437