Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 PM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...

Convection has largely been tied to the higher terrain of the
mountains and plateau regions so far today. Still expect it to
fill in somewhat over the valley so the 40-50% PoPs in the
forecast through this evening for those locations appear ok for
now. Time will tell if those are too high.

Otherwise, the region will remain beneath flat upper ridging over
roughly the southern half of the United States through the period.
More specifically, a weakness located beneath the subtropical high
located off the coast of the Carolinas and another over the New
Mexico and Texas border will be situated overhead. This weakness
will allow for another round of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms again tomorrow, mainly over the higher terrain. A
few isolated showers may also linger into, or form during, the
overnight hours tonight but typical diurnal trends should nix most
convection within a few hours of sunset this evening. Confidence
in how much skies clear out tonight is not high. Added in some
higher cloud cover over the major river valleys across the CWA to
hint at the possibility of some fog or low clouds tonight. But it
probably be hit and miss given possible cloud cover.

Temperatures tomorrow should be fairly similar to today, with mid
to upper 80s possible for lower elevations expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)...

Little change is needed to the previous forecast as a large ridge
over the western Atlantic continues to be the dominant feature
for the long term period. The ridge will gradually build westward
through the early part of the period, becoming positioned over the
central Appalachians by Wednesday/Thursday. Will see a trend
toward less convection, and temperatures will generally run
slightly above normal for the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  86  71  87 /  40  40  30  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  87  68  87 /  40  50  30  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       70  87  69  87 /  30  50  30  30
Tri Cities Airport, TN              66  86  65  87 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

CD/LW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
311 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-310715-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
311 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 /211 AM CDT Thu Aug 30 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Slow-moving thunderstorms may be capable of producing localized
flooding and strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

TNZ047-301900-
Southeast Carter TN-
235 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM EDT...

At 234 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elk Park, or 7 miles west of Beech Mountain, moving west at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Roane Mountain State Park, Elk Mills, Roan Mountain and Hampton Creek
Cove State Park.

LAT...LON 3615 8201 3616 8216 3632 8214 3629 8198
      3627 8196 3627 8195 3626 8195 3626 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 094DEG 10KT 3621 8202

CED

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