Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
333 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)...
Showers and thunderstorms were slow to develop across most of the
region ahead of a weak cold front that was moving south across KY
at this time. Some pre frontal storms developed earlier this
afternoon and these have moved mostly into central Virginia and
western North Carolina. Temperatures warmed into the upper 80s to
lower 90s before storms and clouds increased earlier this
afternoon a few degrees warmer than expected. For the rest of the
afternoon expect storms to fill in over central and southern
sections as storms move southeast from middle Tennessee and
central and southern KY. A few storms will be strong to possibly
severe due to high ML cape values of 1500 to 2500 J/KG and
afternoon heating. Heavy rainfall a threat to with precipitable
water values 1.8 to 2.0 inches if storms linger over the same
areas. Tonight storms will decrease with sunset and patchy areas
of fog will form. Saturday with lingering clouds and weak front
to the south Temperatures mostly lower to mid 80s. Rain chances
will be significant along southern border as front will linger
just south of Tennessee border. Higher pressure with drier air
mass will affect northeast half of forecast area with clearing
skies and no showers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)...
A weakening cold front will be continuing its push through the
Southern Appalachian Region on Saturday night. Associated
thunderstorm activity should be ongoing over the southern half of
the area Saturday evening...then slowly exiting the area late
evening/overnight. With residual moisture in place and weak
lift...scattered convection will be possible on Sunday...mainly
across southern locations and over higher elevations. The boundary
will be in the general vicinity on Monday and provide a slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms again mainly over southern areas
and across higher elevations. On Tuesday and Wednesday...a
secondary weak boundary will move into the area...creating an
additional chance of convection across the region. The second
boundary will remain across the area through the end of the
extended and continue to provide isolated to scattered convection.
As for temperatures...the extended period will begin with
cooler...near normal reading as more seasonal temperatures move in
behind the cold front. However...temperatures will begin to trend
higher through the week and by the end of the period...highs are
expected to be back into the upper 80s and low 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             71  83  69  86 /  50  50  30  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  69  83  67  86 /  40  20   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       69  83  68  87 /  40  20  10  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              67  80  62  85 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

TD/MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-071930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
312 PM EDT Fri Jul 6 2018 /212 PM CDT Fri Jul 6 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

...Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon and
Early Evening...

A frontal boundary will move south across the Southern Appalachians
late today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and early evening. Main concern will be damaging
winds, hail up to penny size, frequent lightning, and heavy
rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.

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