Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
326 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...Isolated to scattered showers
and storms will continue to develop this afternoon and continue into
the evening hours. Current CU field suggest the greatest chance for
these showers and storms will be south of I-40 and across our
eastern mountains. However, any storms that develop over the
eastern mountains could still drift into central and northern valley
locations later this afternoon and evening. A few of these storms
may become strong to severe as we have a moist and unstable airmass
in place. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the main concerns.

Current thinking is that the activity developing near the cold front
across the Ohio River Valley will continue to develop and spread
southward this evening and overnight. Models show this activity
weakening as it draws closer to our area. The main question is does
it completely fall apart before reaching us. Showers and storms then
redevelop tomorrow morning across our northern areas out ahead of
the front. These showers and storms then continue to develop and
move southward toward the central and southern valley through the
day. With little to no shear in place the threat for severe weather
is very low. However, of few of these storms could again be strong
to severe as soundings are moderately unstable. The main threat for
tomorrow is again heavy rain and gusty winds.

Lows tonight will be in lower 70s for most. Highs will be cooler
tomorrow due to the cloud cover in place from showers and storms.
Highs in the low to mid 80s are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)...Upper level ridge
shifts west and upper level trough settles along east coast. A
weak cold front will also sink south of the region. Another upper
level ridge then builds over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Scattered showers and a few storms will continue Friday night as
front moves south. Saturday drier air mass filters into the
northern sections of the region but clouds continue in the south
closer to the front. Moisture will still be around southern
sections so there will be a chance of showers and storms. Highs
will be much cooler in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Saturday night
more dry air will filter in and lows will be mainly in the 60s.
Sunday and Monday the Upper ridge strengthens over the region and
this will keep rain chances very low and air mass still rather dry
with lower night time and day time temperatures. Tuesday through
Thursday the ridge begins to break down and moisture increases
from the south. Temperatures will creep back up to the lower 90s
and diurnal slight chance showers and storms will return.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  88  71  85 /  50  70  40  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  86  68  85 /  50  70  30  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       73  85  68  85 /  50  70  30  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  83  65  83 /  50  70  30   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

SR/TD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
328 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-061930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
328 PM EDT Thu Jul 5 2018 /228 PM CDT Thu Jul 5 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A frontal boundary will build south across the Southern
Appalachians on Friday, producing scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. There is a small chance that a few of these
storms may become strong to severe. Damaging winds, hail up to
quarter size, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Friday.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
559 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

TNZ035-067-052230-
Roane TN-Morgan TN-
559 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MORGAN AND NORTHWESTERN
ROANE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 559 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wartburg, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rockwood, Wartburg, Midtown, Harriman, Oakdale, Pine Orchard,
Dearmond, Coalfield and Frozen Head State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3582 8469 3587 8473 3589 8471 3590 8468
      3599 8472 3606 8479 3612 8453 3598 8443
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 053DEG 10KT 3602 8454

JLB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
608 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

TNZ044>047-052245-
Washington TN-Northwest Carter TN-Southeast Carter TN-Unicoi TN-
608 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN UNICOI AND SOUTHWESTERN CARTER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
EDT...

At 608 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hampton, or near Elizabethton, moving west at 10 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Johnson City, Elizabethton, Erwin, Central, Hampton, Midway, Pine
Crest, Banner Hill, Unicoi, Watauga, Limestone Cove, Milligan
College, Roan Mountain and Roane Mountain State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3611 8240 3638 8245 3636 8212 3619 8209
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 081DEG 8KT 3628 8220

JLB