Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Morristown, TN

701 
WGUS74 KMRX 272214
FFSMRX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Morristown TN
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

TNC091-163-VAC191-520-272222-
/O.CAN.KMRX.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-180527T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Sullivan TN-Johnson TN-City of Bristol VA-Washington VA-
614 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHEASTERN
JOHNSON AND SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF BRISTOL IS
CANCELLED...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat. Washington County, VA law enforcement reported that the 
flooding near the Holston Lake has subsided and no additional 
reports of flooding has been recieved. Please continue to heed any 
remaining road closures and high water crossing.

LAT...LON 3661 8165 3659 8168 3657 8168 3657 8169
      3656 8169 3653 8232 3660 8231 3660 8230
      3661 8230 3669 8229 3676 8168 3667 8164
      3661 8163

$$

DH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Monday)...
Modest diurnal heating this afternoon has allowed for building of
instability across the higher terrain of east TN and southwest
VA/NC.  With that, a few scattered showers and thunderstorms have
initiated, all amidst weak steering flow aloft.  Therefore, am
expecting some additional development along any outflow boundaries
through the evening, thus the fcst features widespread likely pops.
Some heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out with these storms,
especially given weak motions.  Otherwise, partly/mostly sunny skies
will prevail ahead of sunset tonight.  Am expecting convective
coverage to diminish through most of the overnight, however with
enough elevated instability present to support a few rogue showers.
Toward sunrise guidance favors the the first tropical-like wave of
moisture advecting across the southern Appalachians in association
with TC Alberto's nearing landfall.  With that, modest moist sely
upsloping is expected across the southern facing slopes of southeast
TN and southwest NC providing some focusing for sustained convection
into/through mid morning Monday. Opted not to make any changes to
the current Flash Flood Watch with this issuance as the focus of
greatest QPF hasn't shifted.  Given fcst pwats approaching 1.9-2.0
inches, cannot rule out localized QPF amounts along the US64
corridor (especially in the upslope regions) of 2-3 inches through
the end of the period Monday evening. Elsewhere, think
scattered/numerous showers are a good bet, with chances being less
likely further north therefore pops are maximized in the likely
range across the south with chances northward.  High temperatures on
Monday will near normal levels.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)...
The extended continues to look unsettled and wet with abundant
tropical moisture as the remnants of Subtropical Storm Alberto move
inland across the Southeast CONUS. On Monday night, bands of rain,
some of which could be heavy, will become more likely as the
remnants of Alberto approach. The widespread cloud cover and
precipitation will continue to keep max temperatures closer to
normal and will keep minimum temperatures well above normal. PW
values of between 1.75 to 2.0 inches will be near the climatological
max for this time of year. The abundant moisture will continue
through at least the middle of the week with a continued chance for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding. When combined with
southerly/southeasterly winds ahead of Alberto, upslope flow along
the southern Cumberland Plateau and along the eastern slopes of the
Southern Appalachians may produce enhanced rainfall totals in these
areas. At this time, it looks like the best combination of tropical
moisture and lift will be Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
with highest rainfall totals across the southern Cumberland Plateau,
the southern valley, and SW NC. In addition to the localized flash
flooding threat from heavy rain, will have to monitor rivers that
originate in western NC, the Sequatchie River, and rivers and creeks
across the southern valley as runoff may lead to river rises toward
the middle of the week. The ECMWF and GFS have shown good agreement
and run to run consistency over the past couple of days. Global
models continue to show the remnant center of Alberto moving
northward across Middle TN Tuesday night and Wednesday and moving
into the Great Lakes region by Thursday and Friday. This would lead
to some drier weather and lower PoPs late in the week. There could
be a frontal boundary or weak trough move through late in the week
which could lead to some additional rain and thunderstorms, but do
not feel comfortable going above chance PoPs at this time. Overall,
late next week and next weekend look to be much drier at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             68  81  70  79 /  50  50  80  90
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  80  68  82 /  40  40  60  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  81  69  82 /  40  30  60  80
Tri Cities Airport, TN              64  79  65  81 /  40  40  50  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     evening for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     evening for Blount Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Monroe.

VA...None.
&&

CDG/JB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-281945-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
341 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 /241 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening. The primary threats from any of these
storms will be cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall. Any
locations that have received recent heavy rainfall could see an
enhanced threat of localized flash flooding with additional
accumulations.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Moisture associated with subtropical storm Alberto will spread
across the region in earnest beginning early Monday morning and
lasting through late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning.
This has the potential to bring occasional heavy rainfall to the
Southern Appalachian Region. This may lead to localized flash
flooding. In addition, river rises may occur midweek due to the
heavy rain and runoff, especially those rivers which originate in
western North Carolina.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected, but reports of flooding or
severe weather is appreciated.

CDG