Alert archive / Michigan / Wind Advisories in 2018

Wind Advisory 2, NWS Marquette, MI

September 21, 20186 counties in Michigan

NWS Marquette, MI issued this wind advisory at Sep 21, 2018, 4:23 AM EDT for 6 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Sep 21, 2018, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 14 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 21, 2018, 4:23 AM EDT (08:23 UTC)
In effect from
Sep 21, 2018, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Sep 21, 2018, 10:00 PM EDT
In force
14 hr
Issued by
NWS Marquette, MI

Counties Alger County, MI, Houghton County, MI, Keweenaw County, MI, Luce County, MI, Marquette County, MI, Schoolcraft County, MI

The radar

The Marquette radar (KMQT), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 00:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 251 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2018-09-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2018-09-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 340 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
512 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
340 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
454 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

826 
WWUS73 KMQT 210823
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...Strong winds expected today...

MIZ001-003-211700-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.180921T1500Z-180921T2200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
this evening. 

Hazardous Weather:

 * Plan on northwest winds to increase this morning. From late
   morning through mid afternoon, expect sustained winds of 25 to
   35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will
   occur along the west shore of the Keweenaw Peninsula and also
   in high terrain locations. Winds will quickly diminish late 
   this afternoon and will become light this evening. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot
   weakened trees.

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur. 
   
 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ005>007-085-211700-
/O.NEW.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.180921T1600Z-180921T2300Z/
Marquette-Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising,
Newberry, and Seney
423 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Wind
Advisory, which is in effect from noon today to 7 PM EDT this
evening. 

Hazardous Weather:

 * Plan on northwest winds to increase late this morning. During
   the afternoon, expect sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with
   gusts of 45 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will occur along the
   lakeshore from Harvey east to Munising, Grand Marais and Crisp
   Point. Winds will quickly diminish early this evening and will
   become light during the night. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot
   weakened trees.

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur. 
   
 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times,
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off
   Lake Superior.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

Rolfson
4 follow-up statements
297 
WWUS73 KMQT 211046
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...Strong winds expected today...

MIZ001-003-211900-
/O.EXT.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.180921T1200Z-180921T2200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Strong west winds will become northwest this morning. For much
   of the day, expect sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 
   of 45 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will occur along the west 
   shore of the Keweenaw Peninsula and also in high terrain 
   locations. Winds will quickly diminish late this afternoon and 
   will become light this evening. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ005>007-085-211900-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.180921T1600Z-180921T2300Z/
Marquette-Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Gwinn, Marquette, Grand Marais, Munising,
Newberry, and Seney
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Plan on northwest winds to increase late this morning. During 
   the afternoon, expect sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with 
   gusts of 45 to 50 mph. The strongest winds will occur along 
   the lakeshore from Harvey east to Munising, Grand Marais and 
   Crisp Point. Winds will quickly diminish early this evening 
   and will become light during the night. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

Rolfson
224 
WWUS73 KMQT 211801
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE...

MIZ006-007-220200-
/O.EXT.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180922T0200Z/
Alger-Luce-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, and Newberry
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to
   55 mph will continue through much of this evening. The 
   strongest winds will occur along the lakeshore. Winds will 
   diminish late this evening and will become light during the 
   night. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-212200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180921T2200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph will
   continue into early this evening. The strongest winds will
   occur along the west shore of the Keweenaw Peninsula and also
   in high terrain locations. Winds will quickly diminish late
   this afternoon and will become light this evening. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ005-085-212300-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180921T2300Z/
Marquette-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Gwinn, Marquette, and Seney
201 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to
   50 mph will continue into this evening. The strongest winds
   will occur along the lakeshore. Winds will diminish this 
   evening and will become light during the night. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

Titus
412 
WWUS73 KMQT 211920
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...
...FROST EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...

MIZ006-220330-
/O.NEW.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.180922T0500Z-180922T1300Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180922T0200Z/
Alger-
Including the cities of Grand Marais and Munising
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. 

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to 
   55 mph will continue through much of this evening. The 
   strongest winds will occur along the lakeshore. Winds will 
   diminish late this evening and will become light during the 
   night. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost.

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ005-085-220330-
/O.NEW.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.180922T0500Z-180922T1300Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180921T2300Z/
Marquette-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Gwinn, Marquette, and Seney
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday. 

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 
   50 mph will continue into this evening. The strongest winds 
   will occur along the lakeshore. Winds will diminish this 
   evening and will become light during the night. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost.

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ002-004-009>014-084-220330-
/O.NEW.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.180922T0500Z-180922T1300Z/
Ontonagon-Baraga-Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-
Southern Schoolcraft-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Ontonagon, L'Anse, Ironwood, Iron River, 
Iron Mountain, Menominee, Escanaba, Gladstone, Manistique, 
Kenton, and Sidnaw
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 /220 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 9 AM
EDT /8 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ to 9 AM
EDT /8 AM CDT/ Saturday. 

Hazardous Weather:

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland 
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost.

Impacts:

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation.
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ001-003-212200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180921T2200Z/
Keweenaw-Northern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Houghton, and Hancock
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 50 mph 
   will continue into early this evening. The strongest winds 
   will occur along the west shore of the Keweenaw Peninsula and 
   also in high terrain locations. Winds will quickly diminish 
   late this afternoon and will become light this evening. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost.

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times.

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ007-220200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180922T0200Z/
Luce-
Including the city of Newberry
320 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with gusts of 45 to 
   55 mph will continue through much of this evening. The 
   strongest winds will occur along the lakeshore. Winds will 
   diminish late this evening and will become light during the 
   night. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost.

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times,
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off
   Lake Superior.

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold.

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 mph
   are expected or occuring.

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

Titus
932 
WWUS73 KMQT 220058
NPWMQT

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
858 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...FROST EXPECTED INLAND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...

MIZ006-220900-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180922T0200Z/
/O.CON.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.180922T0500Z-180922T1300Z/
Alger-
Including the cities of Grand Marais and Munising
858 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 20 to 20 mph with gusts of 45 mph
   will continue through late evening. The strongest winds will
   occur along the lakeshore. Winds will diminish by midnight  
   become light during the night. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland 
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ002-004-005-009>014-084-085-220900-
/O.CON.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.180922T0500Z-180922T1300Z/
Ontonagon-Baraga-Marquette-Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-
Southern Schoolcraft-Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Ontonagon, L'Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, 
Ironwood, Iron River, Iron Mountain, Menominee, Escanaba, 
Gladstone, Manistique, Kenton, Sidnaw, and Seney
858 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018 /758 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/
TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ SATURDAY...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland 
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost. 

Impacts:

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.
 
 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

MIZ007-220200-
/O.CON.KMQT.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180922T0200Z/
Luce-
Including the city of Newberry
858 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

Hazardous Weather:

 * Sustained northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 45 mph
   will continue through late evening. The strongest winds will
   occur along the lakeshore. Winds will diminish by midnight  
   and will become light during the night. 

 * Temperatures will fall into the 30s with light winds inland 
   from the Great Lakes tonight, leading to the development of 
   frost. 

Impacts:

 * The strong winds will break some tree limbs and may uproot 
   weakened trees. 

 * Sporadic powers outages may occur.

 * Driving high profile vehicles will be difficult at times, 
   especially along M-28 where the road is exposed to winds off 
   Lake Superior. 

 * Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
   Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 

Precautionary/Preparedness Actions:

 * A Wind Advisory means that frequent wind gusts of 45 to 57 
   mph are expected or occuring. 

 * A Frost Advisory means that widespread frost is expected.

 * Prepare, plan, and stay informed. Visit www.weather.gov/mqt

&&

$$

07

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Sep 21, 1:31 AM EDT, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 21, 1:31 AM EDT, 2 hours 52 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
131 AM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 423 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

...Strong early fall storm with multiple hazards through Fri...

Deepening low pressure systems in the Upper Great Lakes in the fall
usually spell active weather. Next 24 hours is no exception with
mutliple hazards.

Large scale trough has shifted to northern Plains with primary sfc
low at 19z around 1000mb in northeast NE. Based on temps/dwpnts and
winds, sfc warm front stretches from low across northern IA and into
far southern WI/southern Lk MI and southern lower MI. Downright
steamy south of the front with lower 90s over lower 70s from
northern IA into northern IL. Meanwhile, Upper Michigan remains well
to the north of warm front stuck in stable low-level airmass with
stratus and expanding shield of light rain. Showers/t-storms btwn
these two distinct airmasses have been firing since this morning
over southern MN and based on latest high res models that are
initializing well, these t-storms are expected to lift from wcntrl
WI into western Upper Michigan by early this evening. Also still
watching for possible isold t-storms to develop farther east into
cntrl WI in the next few hours. Thus far think this is a low risk
since instability is nil in this area.

Thus far, all storms upstream in MN and WI are mostly rooted aloft
as they are firing on northern edge of MUCAPE gradient since the sfc
front is still well south of there. However, there still could be
risk of stronger wind gusts in stronger storms or even heavier
showers as the low-level jet overhead this evening is over 50 kts
from the SSW. At this point think bigger hazard will be heavy rain
with PWATS over 1.75 inches advecting into Upper Michigan on nose of
stronger H925-H7 moisture transport. At this point, think the system
remains progressive enough to keep flooding hazard mitigated. Issued
an SPS for western tier of Upper Michigan as don't think a flash
flood watch is needed. Could see the need for an flood advisory once
radar trends are more evident so will be more of a nowcast issue.
Later this evening or early overnight, signal that line of t-storms
crosses west to east across Upper Michigan. Already seeing start of
a broken line of t-storms southeast SD into northeast NE. Certainly
a risk that these t-storms could be strong given the shear (0-1km
shear alone is over 50 kts and oriented perpendicular to expected
line) and overall strong dynamics/strong wind fields aloft. Best
expectation for arrival in western UP is 03z with exit east of Upper
Michigan around 09z. At the least should see brief heavy downpours
and gusty winds as this line moves through.

Attn late tonight turns to synoptic effects behind the exiting low
pressure system which slides east of Lk Superior on Fri morning. NW
winds 30-40 mph on Lake Superior will spread across all of northern
Upper Michigan by Fri aftn. Strongest wind gusts will be along Lk
Superior shore. Strong winds will result in building waves on Lk
Superior and have issued a lakeshore flood advisory for Marquette
through northern Luce county. Could need another lakeshore flood
advisory for tip of Keweenaw but will let mid shift decide on that.
Otherwise, day will feature falling temps and breezy conditions
across all of Upper Michigan. Lake effect rain showers expected with
sufficient mositure to H7 and sufficient instability as lake to top
of inversion delta t/s exceed 13c.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

After the late week shortwave slides east with a frontal boundary
following close behind, optimal radiational cooling conditions
develop Fri ngt across the Upper Peninsula. High pressure arrives
and should erode any lingering clouds with much cooler air aloft and
light winds. Current temperature guidance suggests temps could fall
into the lower 30s across the Central/Western portions of the Upper
Peninsula, and could easily see the traditional cold spots falling
into the upper 20s before daybreak Saturday.

The mid-lvl trough mainly stays north of the area; however, a
secondary frontal boundary is just north of Superior Saturday. This
could introduce additional clouds and a slight chance for showers.
The longwave pattern begins to flatten into a quasi-zonal
orientation, which may produce a day or two in the extended with
quiet weather. Although due to the faster mid-lvl flow the ability
for systems to easily traverse the Northern CONUS will bring small
chances for showers with temps in the 60s and cool overnights in the
30s to low 40s closer to Lake Superior and Michigan.

Tue/Wed of next week will start to focus on a system expected to
develop over the Central Rockies. This system will have much cooler
air sliding south from Canada mid-week, and will eventually arrive
across the Great Lakes. While we anticipate some moderation to the
airmass by late next week, guidance has been suggesting much colder
air to arrive for a brief period late next week.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 128 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2018

IFR conditions will continue into this morning as the rain and low
clouds move through. Look for a low-level jet with winds up to 50
kts to move out this morning at CMX and SAW which will likely cause
LLWS. Conditions will improve this afternoon. Expect gusty winds
today to 30-40kt at KSAW/KCMX, strongest at KCMX. Winds at KIWD
will gust to 30kt.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 423 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

Through tonight low pressure currently ejecting out of the central
Plains will track across Lake Superior into early Friday morning. As
the area of low pressure deepens, expect east gales up to 45 kts,
strongest over west half between Isle Royale and Duluth. As the low
pressure system exits east of Lake Superior on Friday, winds will
shift north-northwest and produce yet another round of gales across
all of Lake Superior. Peak winds could push 45 kts Fri aftn,
strongest over eastern Lake Superior. Friday night high pressure
will gradually slide eastward, reducing wind speeds across Lake
Superior. On Saturday, expect the winds to become southwest between
20 and 30 knots as a weak low pressure system tracks across Lake
Superior. On Sunday, winds will switch around and become northeast
around 20 to 25 knots. Expect southeast winds to 30 kts Mon into Tue
over Lake Superior, strongest over the east half.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Lakeshore Flood Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for MIZ005>007.

Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for LSZ264>267.

  Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for LSZ162-
     263.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ250-251.

  Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for LSZ242>245-248-249.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ221-248-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...Beachler
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLA
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 20, 3:10 PM EDT, 13 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-211915-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 /210 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms, some strong, may be possible this evening. Any
strong storm that develop will have the potential to contain
gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

In addition to the thunderstorm threat, heavy rainfall outside of
thunderstorms may be possible this evening in portions of western
Upper Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Breezy conditions, especially for locations along the Great Lakes
shorelines, will create high waves and potentially cause minor
beach erosion. See current Lakeshore Flood Advisory for
additional details.

Areas of frost may develop in the interior sections of Upper
Michigan by dawn Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
at our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-211915-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018 /210 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Increasing winds and waves tonight with gale force winds
developing for the open waters of Lake Superior. See the latest
Marine Weather Message for more details.

Thunderstorms containing gusty winds may be possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Breezy conditions and increased wave heights will continue into
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
at our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter.

LMZ221-248-250-211915-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
310 PM EDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Rest of Today and Tonight

Increasing winds and waves tonight with gale force winds
developing for the Bay of Green Bay. See the latest Marine
Weather Message for more details.

Thunderstorms containing gusty winds may be possible this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Breezy conditions and increased wave heights will continue into
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to submit reports to the National
Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports
at our webpage, Facebook page, or on Twitter.

Beachler

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 20, 10:58 PM EDT, 5 hours 25 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1058 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 ESE WAKEFIELD         46.44N 89.83W
09/20/2018  M1.81 INCH       GOGEBIC            MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WKFM4, 6 ESE WAKEFIELD.

0956 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W ECHO LAKE           46.61N 88.91W
09/20/2018  M1.75 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KTNM4, 8 N KENTON.

1031 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WSW TWIN LAKES        46.88N 88.86W
09/20/2018  M1.73 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MC008, 1 WSW TWIN LAKES.

1013 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 SSW PELKIE            46.78N 88.66W
09/20/2018  M1.70 INCH       BARAGA             MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION PIEM4, 3 SSW PELKIE.

1019 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NE ARNHEIM            46.95N 88.45W
09/20/2018  M1.54 INCH       HOUGHTON           MI   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MC031, 2 NE ARNHEIM.

&&

JSS
Local storm report, Sep 20, 11:04 PM EDT, 5 hours 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1104 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE CHASSELL          47.00N 88.40W
09/20/2018  M38 MPH          HOUGHTON           MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION 45025, 6 ESE CHASSELL.

1011 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST HOUGHTON CO AIRPORT     47.17N 88.49W
09/20/2018  M36 MPH          HOUGHTON           MI   ASOS

            ASOS STATION CMX, HOUGHTON CO. AIRPORT.

1000 PM     HIGH SUST WINDS  7 N KEWEENAW POINT      47.50N 87.70W
09/20/2018  M36 MPH          LSZ244             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION WDB9821, 6 N KEWEENAW POINT.

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 48 ENE ROCK OF AGES     48.22N 88.37W
09/20/2018  M36 MPH          LSZ264             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION PILM4, PASSAGE ISLAND ISLE
            ROYALE.

1000 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 28 ESE KEWEENAW POINT   47.18N 87.22W
09/20/2018  M36 MPH          LSZ266             MI   BUOY

            BUOY STATION STDM4, STANNARD ROCK.

&&

JSS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Marquette, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 20, 11:01 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningMQT29 min
Sep 21, 4:30 AM EDTBeach Hazards StatementMQTSchoolcraft16 hr
Sep 21, 3:20 PM EDTFrost AdvisoryMQTAlger, Baraga, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton and 5 more18 hr
Sep 21, 4:33 PM EDTSmall Craft AdvisoryMQT16 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in Michigan, 2018Every wind advisory in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.