Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Marquette, MI

863 
WWUS53 KMQT 042157
SVSMQT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

MIC013-042215-
/O.CON.KMQT.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180804T2215Z/
Baraga MI-
557 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR NORTHERN BARAGA COUNTY...

At 557 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Skanee, or 12
miles northeast of L'anse, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Baraga, L'anse, Skanee, The Huron Islands, Herman, Pequaming,
Assinins and Point Abbaye.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Marquette.

&&

LAT...LON 4703 8818 4703 8796 4697 8784 4690 8795
      4691 8804 4685 8805 4664 8841 4676 8860
      4715 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 224DEG 41KT 4688 8826 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

RJT

085 
WWUS53 KMQT 042207
SVSMQT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

MIC013-042216-
/O.EXP.KMQT.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180804T2215Z/
Baraga MI-
607 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN BARAGA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 615 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds to 40 MPH are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4703 8818 4703 8796 4697 8784 4690 8795
      4691 8804 4685 8805 4664 8841 4676 8860
      4715 8813
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 224DEG 41KT 4694 8817 

$$

RJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
340 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

The atmosphere has taken a different approach on how today would
unfold, with abundant cloud cover persisting through the better part
of peak heating and lack of cumulus to aid in development of
additional thunderstorms. After the morning showers/thunderstorms
that pushed through the Upper Peninsula from west to east, satellite
imagery indciated clouds will be lingering thru much of the morning.
Most of the cloud cover was mid/upr level, with stratus layer parked
over Marquette county and extending east through Alger county.
Mixing has finally eroded the bulk of the stratus deck, while focus
turned upstream to additional mid/upr level clouds still lifting
northeast from Minnesota and Westcentral Wisconsin towards the Upper
Peninsula. Regional radar continues to show an area of showers
lifting northeast towards the Apostle Islands and western Lake
Superior, but with a lack of convection at present. The instability
remains across the Upper Peninsula this afternoon/evening; however,
there is a lack of a trigger to develop and sustain convective
growth. Will maintain a mention of thunder this evening/overnight,
with the best chances prior to 6z then it looks like a lull in
activity through possibly mid-day Sun.

Abundant low-level moisture will linger tonight, with Td's hovering
well into the 60s to some locations tagging 70. Expect tonight will
remain mild with lows struggling to fall due to considerable
friction in mid-lvls from a low-level jet pushing 40-45kts. Then
expect Sun to start with less cloud cover, with the surface
realizing the warmth and quickly warming into the upr 70s by late
morning and likely into the 80s by midday. Could be a little slow
with the rate of warmth, but thinking is that the abundance of
moisture in the lowest 0-1km will absorb the bulk of the energy from
the sun and delay mid/upr 80s until early afternoon timeframe.

Guidance has been struggling to capture how Sun will evolve with
respect to convection, but it appears a weak lobe of vorticity will
be sliding east from Northcentral Minnesota late in the afternoon,
which should act as a trigger and help to grow convection coverage
further downstream into the late afternoon and evening hours across
the Upper Peninsula along a boundary.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

Shortwave moving into Ontario Sunday night will help amplify upper
troughing over the Great Lakes and push a cold front through the
area on Monday. Front will push through western half of area prior
to max heating Monday and thus best rain chances along and ahead of
the front will be confined to the eastern half of the U.P.

High pressure will build into the Upper Lakes behind the front
providing a mainly dry and seasonable rest of the week. A weak
shortwave in the northwesterly flow may trigger a shower on Thursday.
Upper ridging will build across the area next weekend with a return
to above normal temperatures.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

Stratus clouds have finally lifted for TAF sites, and expect VFR
conds to prevail for at least the next 6 hrs. The wildcard will be
on development to the west for thunderstorms, which would likely
impact IWD/CMX this evening before SAW. The best timing appears to
be between 22-24z and slightly later for CMX and SAW; however,
confidence remains low on this scenario. The remainder of the
forecast is a low confidence in timing and placement of
showers/thunderstorms, which will also dictate the placement of
any reduced CIGs and VSBYs associated with thunderstorms. In
addition to this, LLWS remains in the forecast with considerable
slug of winds expected in the mid-levels or at 2-3kft agl at
speeds between 40-45kts.

&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 337 PM EDT SAT AUG 4 2018

Increasing S-SW winds through tonigh, with winds gusting at times
between 15-25kts. Expect these winds to continue into Sun,
especially E half. Winds will diminish Sun. For the rest of the
forecast period, winds are forecast to remain below 15 kts.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for MIZ014.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...Beachler
MARINE...Beachler

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-051200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 /238 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible over West and central Upper Michigan
tonight.

For the Lake Michigan beaches in Schoolcraft County, a high swim
risk is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Monday.

For the Lake Michigan beaches in Schoolcraft County, a high swim
risk is expected on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-051200-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018 /238 PM CDT Sat Aug 4 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-051200-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
338 PM EDT Sat Aug 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Monday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

MZ