Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
748 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

Main concerns in the short term forecast will be the potential for
showers and thunderstorms this morning and again late this afternoon
into tonight. Heavy rainfall potential will also be a concern,
especially over the western U.P.

Today and Tonight: Intermittent shower and thunderstorm potential
will continue through this time period as shortwaves slide through
the area. Overall confidence in exact timing and placement of the
better chances of showers and thunderstorm is low, especially for
this evening through tonight. Any shower and thunderstorm activity
will have the potential to produce very heavy rainfall as strong
moisture transport continues into the area on a strong southerly low
level jet. This will continue to push PWAT values up to nearly 200
percent of normal at 1.5 to 2 inches. Enhanced convergence on the
nose of the low level jet early this morning is helping to force
some showers and thunderstorms across the western U.P. and portions
of northern MN and western WI. At the same time, a shortwave sliding
through the area will help to steepin lapse rates, allowing MU CAPE
values to jump up into the 1500 to 3000 J/KG range.  Overall shear
values are a bit lower than yesterday, which should help to limit
overall intensity of the storms early in the day. Hi-Res guidance
has additional scattered showers and thunderstorms sliding into the
western U.P. by around 12Z/16, then diving to the south toward the
better instability through the morning hours. Again, heavy rainfall
potential will be the main concern with these showers and storm,
especially over the western U.P. where heavy antecedent rainfall
occurred over the past 24 hours.

Later in the afternoon into tonight, at least one more shortwave
is progged to slide through the area at the same time that a very
slow moving cold front starts to edge toward the western U.P. This
will, again, lead to additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall. The severe
weather threat this afternoon into this evening will hinge
largely on the amount of cloud cover that lingers throughout the
day from the morning convection. Deep layer shear values are
progged to be in the 20 to 30 knot range for the most part, which
would lend a bit less support to widespread severe weather
potential outside of some small hail and gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

Ring of fire scenario continues with a deep 500 mb trough in the
western U.S. and a strong ridge across the eastern U.S. with the
upper Great Lakes on the northern periphery of the ridge. This will
continue to make forecasting difficult as any shortwave that comes
by could kick off convection and periods of convection will continue
through Mon. Sunday looks to be the warmest day with the least
convection before the cold front moves through on Sunday night and
slowly sinks south on Monday. Overall, severe threats will be large
hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall and will extend the flash
flood watch until 18z Mon as potential continues to exist for heavy
rainfall in the storms.

In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb closed low over the
central Rockies 12z Tue with a broad 500 mb ridge over the sern U.S.
and a shortwave ridge over the northern and central plains. A rex
block forms 12z Wed with a ridge topping the closed low over the
central Rockies with the ridge over B.C. and Alberta. The closed low
gets ejected out into the central plains 12z Thu with the ridge
moving through the Canadian Rockies. This low then moves north into
the northern plains 12z Fri and this moves an upper trough into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Sat.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 748 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

VFR conditions should generally prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this
fcst period. Clusters of shra/tsra will be roaming the Upper Lakes
region and may impact the terminals intermittently during this fcst
period. Confidence in location and timing of these shra/tsra remains
low, but it appears the best chance will be early this morning at
all TAF sites and then tonight over the western TAF sites. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be possible during these heavier events.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 420 AM EDT SAT JUN 16 2018

Winds will generally remain between 10 to 20 knots through the end
of the weekend. However, additional areas of showers and
thunderstorms through Sunday night may result in some very gusty
erratic winds, maybe even as high as 35 knots for a brief period.
Winds will relax into early next week with speeds generally around
or less than 15 knots, with perhaps a brief uptick towards 20 knots
on Monday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
  Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for MIZ002-009.

Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
405 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-171200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
405 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 /305 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. A few storms
could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. A few storms
could also produce heavy rainfall. See the flood watch product for
further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday. There is potential
for strong to severe storms Sunday through Sunday night with
large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Heavy rain
will be possible over west and central Upper Michigan through
Monday with any stronger or persistent thunderstorms. See the
flood watch for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-171200-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
405 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 /305 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. A few storms
could be severe and could contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts. A few storms could also produce heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a potential for strong to severe storms Sunday through
Sunday night with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
threat. Heavy rain will be possible. Thunderstorm chances continue
through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

LMZ221-248-250-171200-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
405 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. A few storms
could be severe and could contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts. A few storms could also produce heavy rainfall. Dense fog
is expected tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Thunderstorm chances continue through Monday. There is potential
for strong to severe storms Sunday through Sunday night with large
hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Heavy rain will
be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind
damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in
Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National
Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or
Twitter.

07

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