Beach Hazards Statement 17, NWS Marquette, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
322 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018

We are finally entering into a much quieter couple of days, but at
least for much of today conditions will be dreary and fall like
before improving tomorrow.

RAP analysis shows that the sfc trough has pushed east to near
Georgian Bay, with the typical lag in the 500 mb trough back near
western Lake Superior. Sfc ridging will gradually work its way into
the region today, which will eventually clear the cloud cover from
west to east but not until later this afternoon and evening.

In the meantime, upslope flow is leading to areas of drizzle north
central this morning, with some enhanced convergence leading to
heavier drizzle near Marquette. Some light fog has also formed in
the interior west, but is not expected to become dense with winds of
4-7 kts.

Remnant light showers will remain possible this morning
across the east before clearing out as forcing exits during the day.
Additionally, most high resolution guidance is picking up on some
morning showers that will affect mainly the Ironwood area before
noon. This activity will be aided by lake moisture as cooler air
runs over the warmer sfc waters and a weak mesoscale boundary seen
earlier on the KDLH radar over the arrowhead of MN.

Seasonally cool temps will only reach the upper 50s north and low to
perhaps mid 60s south this afternoon. With skies expected to be
clear overnight, winds becoming light to calm, and mid and upper
levels drying out, enhanced radiational cooling will lead to
overnight lows in the 40s with a few of the usual cool spots
dropping into the upper 30s. Better chances for areas of dense fog
are expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018

Nam shows a 500 mb ridge across the southern half of the U.S. 12z
Thu with a trough in the Pacific NW. The trough slowly moves east
into the northern plains and upper Great Lakes Fri night. Pcpn comes
into the area late Thu night and then moves across the area Fri into
Fri night.  Did not make many changes to the going forecast.

In the extended, The GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge in the sern
U.S. with a broad trough over the west and a shortwave in the
northern plains 12z Sat. Upper pattern changes little on Sun with a
sfc front stalling to the southeast of the area. Differences show up
12z Mon with the ECMWF having a closed 500 mb low in central
California while the GFS has a broad trough across the Rockies. This
difference remains through Tue. The ECMWF builds a ridge into the
upper Great Lakes 12z Wed while the GFS has a shortwave remaining
over the upper Great Lakes. Temperatures look to stay above normal
for this forecast period and will be humid for the most part.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 106 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018

Lingering low-level moisture and an upslope northerly wind will
likely keep LIFR conditions in place into the morning hrs at
KIWD/KSAW. At KCMX, less favorable upsloping should allow MVFR
conditions to prevail. Some -dz/-shra will also be possible,
especially at KIWD as cyclonic flow and cool air mass add a lake
component to the -shra. Drier air will make inroads into the area
today as high pres approaches from the w and nw. This will result
in improvement to VFR from nw to se thru the day.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 321 AM EDT WED AUG 29 2018

North winds to around 20 knots will develop this morning, especially
over the eastern half of the lake as low pressure slides to the
southeast of the area. A few 25 knot gusts cannot be ruled out in
the Marquette bay between Big Bay and Munising today. These winds
will diminish tonight, and will remain at or below 15 knots until
late Thursday evening, when they will increase up to 20 knots by
early Friday morning across much of the lake and 25 knots Friday
night over the east half. Winds will then remain below 15 knots
until Tuesday.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KCW
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KCW
MARINE...KCW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
348 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-301200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
348 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 /248 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper
Michigan and central Upper Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A high swim risk is expected today for the Lake Superior beaches
of Marquette and Alger Counties. See the latest beach hazards
statement for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible late Thursday night in the far west,
then again Friday afternoon through Saturday for the west and
central and again on Labor Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LSZ162-240>251-263>267-301200-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
348 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 /248 AM CDT Wed Aug 29 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake
Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible across western Lake Superior late
Thursday night and across all of Lake Superior Friday afternoon
into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

LMZ221-248-250-301200-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
348 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms return to the forecast Friday night and Saturday
then again on Labor Day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.

07