Alert archive / Minnesota / Winter Storm Watches in 2018

Winter Storm Watch 12, NWS Twin Cities, MN

December 25, 201820 counties in Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this winter storm watch at Dec 25, 2018, 3:29 AM CST for 20 counties in Minnesota. It took effect at Dec 26, 2018, 6:00 PM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 25, 2018, 3:29 AM CST (09:29 UTC)
In effect from
Dec 26, 2018, 6:00 PM CST
Expired
Dec 26, 2018, 3:32 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Twin Cities, MN

Counties Benton County, MN, Chippewa County, MN, Douglas County, MN, Isanti County, MN, Kanabec County, MN, Kandiyohi County, MN, Lac qui Parle County, MN, Meeker County, MN, Mille Lacs County, MN, Morrison County, MN, Pope County, MN, Redwood County, MN, Renville County, MN, Sherburne County, MN, Stearns County, MN, Stevens County, MN, Swift County, MN, Todd County, MN, Wright County, MN, Yellow Medicine County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 00:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2018-12-25Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2018-12-25The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 19 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1630 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
97 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

574 
WWUS43 KMPX 250929
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
329 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...

.A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for areas along and west of a
line from Redwood Falls to Cambridge Wednesday evening through
Thursday night.

Snow will begin advancing into western Minnesota Wednesday 
afternoon with intensity increasing by evening. Snow, heavy at 
times, will continue through Thursday before intensity tapers off 
Thursday evening. Occasional light snow and freezing drizzle are 
possible Thursday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 
inches are possible across much of western and portions of central
Minnesota, mostly northwest of a line from Redwood Falls to Mora.
Along and east of that line, warm air aloft will surge northward 
late Wednesday night and Thursday which will turn the snow to rain
until Thursday evening. There is still some question as to where 
that sharp cut off from snow to rain will set up, so the Winter 
Storm Watch includes a few counties along that line. 

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-251730-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, 
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls
329 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday with
  light snow and freezing drizzle possible Thursday night. Total 
  snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high 
  as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

MNZ051-052-059-065-073-251730-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Sherburne-Isanti-Wright-Renville-Redwood-
Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Monticello, Olivia,
and Redwood Falls
329 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Sherburne, Isanti, Wright, Renville and Redwood 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

Borghoff
4 follow-up statements
742 
WWUS43 KMPX 251714
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF A MAJOR WINTER STORM WEDNESDAY 
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for areas along and west 
of a line from Redwood Falls to Cambridge Wednesday evening 
through Thursday night.

Snow will begin advancing into southwestern Minnesota late Wednesday
morning, with intensity increasing by evening. Snow, heavy at 
times, will continue through Thursday before intensity tapers off 
Thursday evening. Occasional light snow and freezing drizzle are 
possible Thursday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 
inches are possible across much of western and portions of central
Minnesota, mostly northwest of a line from Redwood Falls to Mora.
Along and east of that line, warm air aloft will surge northward 
late Wednesday night and Thursday which will turn the snow to rain
until Thursday evening. There is still some question as to where 
that sharp cut off from snow to rain will set up, so the Winter 
Storm Watch includes a few counties along that line.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-260115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, 
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday with 
  light snow and freezing drizzle possible Thursday night. Total 
  snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches and ice accumulations of 
  around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high 
  as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central 
  Minnesota. 

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

MNZ051-052-059-065-073-260115-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Sherburne-Isanti-Wright-Renville-Redwood-
Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Monticello, Olivia,
and Redwood Falls
1114 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible. 

* WHERE...Sherburne, Isanti, Wright, Renville and Redwood 
  Counties. 

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$
466 
WWUS43 KMPX 252044
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
244 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for areas along and west 
of a line from Granite Falls, to St. Cloud, and Mora from Wednesday
evening through Friday morning. 

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Redwood, Renville,
Wright, Sherburne, and Isanti counties due to uncertainties of 
the amount snowfall, and where the rain and snow line develops. 

Snow will begin advancing into southwestern Minnesota late
Wednesday morning, with intensity increasing by evening. Snow,
possibly heavy at times, will continue through late Thursday 
night before intensity tapers off. Occasional light freezing 
drizzle is possible but not expected to make a major impact vs. 
the snow. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches are likely in
the warned area, with lesser amounts in the watch area. 

Along and east of a Granite Falls, to St. Cloud, and Mora line, 
warm air aloft will surge northward late Wednesday night and 
Thursday which will turn the snow to rain until Thursday evening. 
There is still some question as to where that sharp cut off from 
snow to rain will set up, so the Winter Storm Watch includes a few
counties along that line.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-260445-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0011.181227T0000Z-181228T1800Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, 
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls
244 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO NOON CST
FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of heavy snow likely Wednesday night, through
  Friday morning. Some freezing drizzle possible. Total snow  
  accumulations of 8 to 13 inches and minor ice accumulations. 
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. 

* WHERE...Portions of central, and west central Minnesota.
  

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow...and or  
sleet...and ice are expected or occurring. Strong winds are also 
possible. This will make travel very hazardous. If you must 
travel...keep an extra flashlight...food...and water in your 
vehicle in case of an emergency.

&&

$$

MNZ051-052-059-065-073-260445-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Sherburne-Isanti-Wright-Renville-Redwood-
Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Monticello, Olivia,
and Redwood Falls
244 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 9 inches and ice accumulations of up to 
  one tenth of an inch possible. 

* WHERE...Sherburne, Isanti, Wright, Renville and Redwood 
  Counties. 

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

&&

$$

JLT
337 
WWUS43 KMPX 260450
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1050 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and 
west of a line from Granite Falls, to St. Cloud, and Mora from 
Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Redwood, Renville,
Wright, Sherburne, and Isanti counties due to uncertainties of
the amount snowfall, and where the rain and snow line develops.

Snow will begin advancing into southwestern Minnesota late
Wednesday morning, with intensity increasing by evening. Snow,
possibly heavy at times, will continue through late Thursday
night before intensity tapers off. Occasional light freezing
drizzle is possible but not expected to make a major impact vs.
the snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches are likely 
in the warned area, with lesser amounts in the watch area.

Along and east of a Granite Falls, to St. Cloud, and Mora line,
warm air aloft will surge northward late Wednesday night and
Thursday which will turn the snow to rain until Thursday evening.
There is still some question as to where that sharp cut off from
snow to rain will set up, so the Winter Storm Watch includes a
few counties along that line.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-261300-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0011.181227T0000Z-181228T1800Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, 
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls
1050 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Periods of heavy snow likely Wednesday night, through
  Friday morning. Some freezing drizzle possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 7 to 12 inches and minor ice accumulations.
  Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Thursday evening and
  overnight.

* WHERE...Portions of central, and west central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy 
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ051-052-059-065-073-261300-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
Sherburne-Isanti-Wright-Renville-Redwood-
Including the cities of Elk River, Cambridge, Monticello, Olivia,
and Redwood Falls
1050 PM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 8 inches along with minor ice
  accumulations.

* WHERE...Sherburne, Isanti, Wright, Renville and Redwood 
  Counties.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The 
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening 
  commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. 

&&

$$

jrb
989 
WWUS43 KMPX 260932
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
332 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for areas along and
north of a line from Canby to Litchfield to Cambridge, starting
this afternoon and lasting through Friday morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued to the southeast of the
Warning, down to a line from Redwood Falls to Glencoe to
Bloomington in Minnesota, continuing to Hudson to Menomonie to 
Chippewa Falls in Wisconsin.

Snow will begin advancing into southwestern Minnesota late 
this morning, with intensity increasing by evening. Snow, 
possibly heavy at times, will continue through late tonight before
intensity tapers off Thursday morning. Occasional light freezing 
drizzle is possible but not expected to make a major impact as
compared to the snow. Total snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches 
are likely in the Warned area where little to no rain is expected. 

In the Advisory area, warm air aloft will surge northward late
tonight through Thursday which will turn the snow to rain until 
Thursday evening, cutting into the accumulations and potentially
watering them down and diminishing them during the day Thursday.

MNZ051-052-261800-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KMPX.WS.W.0011.181226T2100Z-181228T1800Z/
Sherburne-Isanti-
Including the cities of Elk River and Cambridge
332 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze expected.

* WHERE...Sherburne and Isanti Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. The
  hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute 
  tonight and the morning commute Thursday, and potentially the 
  Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-261800-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0011.181226T2100Z-181228T1800Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls, 
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, 
Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls
332 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow 
  accumulations of 6 to 12 inches and ice accumulations of a 
  light glaze expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central 
  Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy
  blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The
  hazardous conditions will likely impact the evening commute 
  tonight and the morning commute Thursday, and potentially the 
  Thursday evening and Friday morning commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ059-065-073-261800-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0024.181226T2100Z-181227T1200Z/
Wright-Renville-Redwood-
Including the cities of Monticello, Olivia, and Redwood Falls
332 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Wright, Renville and Redwood Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute tonight
  and the morning commute Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

&&

$$

MNZ053-060>063-066-068-WIZ014>016-023-025-027-261800-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0024.181226T2100Z-181227T1200Z/
Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Carver-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Dunn-Chippewa-
Including the cities of Center City, Minneapolis, Blaine, 
St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson, Chaska, Osceola, Rice Lake, 
Ladysmith, Hudson, Menomonie, and Chippewa Falls
332 AM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM CST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 
  inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest and west central Wisconsin and 
  central and east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM CST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute tonight
  and the morning commute Thursday.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. 

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Dec 24, 11:40 PM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 24, 11:40 PM CST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1140 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 432 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

The main forecast challenge/concern is a weak storm system moving
across the region Tuesday which may generate some light snow
across far south central, and southeast Minnesota, as well as
portions of west central Wisconsin.

Several weak short waves were evident in the afternoon regional
satellite imagery. One was located in North Dakota, another in
southern Montana, and the last one was across Kansas. The main
forecast concern is the amount of moisture return, or increase in
moisture, once the southern Montana short wave moves across southern
Minnesota Tuesday.

Deeper moisture was evident with the system over Kansas this
afternoon, but the bulk of this moisture moves off to the southeast
of Minnesota by Tuesday morning. Therefore, if the depth of the
moisture is shallower then expected, precipitation will likely not
occur, or at least be non-eventful (drizzle/freezing drizzle
scenario). On the other hand, if deeper moisture does return, or at
least the southern Montana system becomes stronger, a period of
light snow will occur from the Twin Cities, south and east across
south central/southeast Minnesota, as well as a portion of west
central Wisconsin from late tonight, into late Tuesday
afternoon/evening. I won't be surprised to see a light dusting, or
up to an inch of snow fall if the two elements (deeper
moisture/stronger short wave) combine on Tuesday. Otherwise,
temperatures will average above normal tonight, through Tuesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 432 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

There continues to be high confidence in a winter storm impacting t
the upper midwest late Wednesday into Friday of next week, but
exact details in the track/timing/precip type/amounts are still
uncertain. Water vapor imagery shows this system coming ashore on
the northern California coast this afternoon which should allow
for better data sampling and hopefully improved consistency in the
guidance going forward. Guidance is in agreement with this wave
amplifying over the Four Corners region through Wednesday morning,
with subsequent inconsistency in the guidance with how much
phasing this trough has with the weaker northern stream of the
jet. The Euro/FV3 and to a lesser extent the Canadian models show
stronger phasing between the two systems, with a defined closed
low developing over the central plains and tracking into the Upper
Midwest. the GFS shows less phasing resulting in a less organized
and more progressive wave, which results in a further south and
faster track of the low compared to other guidance. Have trended
towards the aforementioned FV3/Euro solution which fits well
within the ensemble guidance envelope and has shown a fairly
consistent northwest track with the low, from north central Kansas
through northern Iowa and eventually into the Great Lakes. This
track places the rain/snow line over the southern portions of
Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with an obvious large
implication on snowfall impacts and impacts.

Expect impacts to begin Wednesday evening as strong warm-air advection
brings a broad shield of precipitation over the area. Initially
temperatures look cold enough for snow to fall across most of the
area, but the rain/snow line will advance north into central MN
and west-central WI overnight as the low approaches. This
rain/snow line will linger over central/southern Minnesota and
west-central Wisconsin through much of Thursday but details are
uncertain on where exactly this line will set up and for how long.
Plenty of mesoscale features will influence how cooling with in
the storm influences this, which we just cannot model at this
range. However as the low departs east into northern Wisconsin
Friday morning, we do expect enough cold air to filter in and
change all precipitation back over to snow.

What we do know is that this system will be quite wet with PW values
approaching 2.5-3 standard deviations above the mean, and that
areas north of this rain/snow line will see the heaviest snow.
Guidance continues to show this area being from western Minnesota
intro central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. 6+ inches of snow
looks likely for these areas, with potential for a foot in areas
that see the heaviest banding given the impressive moisture and
lift this storm is working with. Additionally, winds gusting up
to 30 mph Thursday night and Friday will result in low visibility
and areas of drifting/blowing snow. Further south and east,
amounts are less clear as periods of rain Thursday will cut down
on potential snowfall totals and likely melt what snow these areas
received Wednesday night. How much snow falls Friday morning
after the change over to snow over these areas will depend on the
strength of deformation in the wrap- around region and how long it
lingers over the area, but there is certainly still potential for
impactful snowfall further south into eastern/southern MN and
west-central WI on Friday.

Arctic air spills into the upper midwest behind this system with
Friday night and Saturday looking quite cold. Temperatures
moderate a bit towards the New Year but should still remain close
to average. Will have to monitor the potential for another round
of light snow from a clipper New Years Eve into New Years Day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

VFR conditions will give way to MVFR clouds pushing up from the
south overnight. Could see some flurries or snow showers at
times. Winds will be easterly throughout.

KMSP...

VFR conditions early this morning, but then should see MVFR
ceilings to the south push up at KMSP by the morning rush. Could
see ceilings below 1700 ft, but as of now went more optimistic.
Winds will generally be out of the east.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...MVFR/IFR with -SN developing. A couple inches possible
early, then changing to RA late. Wind E at 5-10 kts, bcmg gusty
late.

THU...IFR/LIFR with -RA likely, becoming -SN late. A couple
inches possible Thu night with winds E/NE at 10G20kts becoming NW
at 20G30kts.

FRI...IFR/MVFR cigs likely with -SN, possible BLSN. Wind N 15G20
kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JRB
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 24, 6:16 PM CST, 9 hours 13 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
616 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
260030-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
616 PM CST Mon Dec 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Winter storm remains on track to bring significant snow
accumulations across western and central Minnesota.

Areas to the south and east will see more of a wintry mix.

Blowing snow will be likely Thursday night and Friday.

Those with travel plans should pay close attention to the
forecast in the coming days when details become more certain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 25, 2:44 PM CSTWinter Storm WarningMPXBenton, Chippewa, Douglas, Isanti, Kanabec, Kandiyohi and 11 more3 days

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Minnesota, 2018Every winter storm watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.