Tornado Warning 7, NWS Twin Cities, MN

725 
WWUS53 KMPX 272223 RRA
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC131-272232-
/O.CAN.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Rice MN-
523 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL RICE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central and southeastern Minnesota...and west central
Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4440 9304 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256
      4457 9255 4457 9251 4449 9236 4429 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 242DEG 47KT 4437 9297 

$$

MNC049-272300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Goodhue MN-
523 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GOODHUE COUNTY...
    
At 522 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado 
was located east of Nerstrand in Goodhue County, or 11 miles 
southeast of Northfield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Welch around 545 PM CDT.
  Red Wing around 550 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hader,
Vasa and Wastedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4440 9304 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256
      4457 9255 4457 9251 4449 9236 4429 9302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 242DEG 47KT 4437 9297 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

BORGHOFF

348 
WWUS53 KMPX 272233
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC049-272300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Goodhue MN-
533 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL
GOODHUE COUNTY...
    
At 533 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Wastedo, or 15 miles southwest of Red Wing, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Red Wing and Welch around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Vasa
and Wastedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256 4457 9255
      4457 9251 4451 9240 4439 9284 4447 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 230DEG 52KT 4446 9282 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JRB

099 
WWUS53 KMPX 272241
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
541 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC049-272300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Goodhue MN-
541 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE COUNTY...
    
At 541 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Vasa, or near Red Wing, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Red Wing around 545 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Vasa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256 4457 9255
      4457 9251 4451 9240 4446 9270 4453 9280
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 239DEG 49KT 4452 9268 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JRB

159 
WWUS53 KMPX 272249
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
549 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC049-272300-
/O.CON.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Goodhue MN-
549 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE COUNTY...
    
At 548 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Red Wing, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Goodhue County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256 4457 9255
      4457 9251 4451 9240 4450 9258 4458 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 270DEG 49KT 4456 9255 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

JRB

154 
WWUS53 KMPX 272308
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
608 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNC049-272317-
/O.EXP.KMPX.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180827T2300Z/
Goodhue MN-
608 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN GOODHUE COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4462 9262 4460 9258 4460 9256 4457 9255
      4457 9251 4451 9240 4450 9258 4458 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 239DEG 49KT 4469 9225 

$$

JRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
209 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

A very potent atmosphere this afternoon with 0-6KM wind shear
increasing to 40-50 kts by late in the day, and through the evening.
This will coincide with MLCAPEs of 2000-3500j/kg across the warm
sector in southern Minnesota. As of 130 pm, stronger storms were
developing near KSTC where elevated instability was noted. These
storms were also following the frontal boundary to the northeast
which will lead to further development over the next hour.

The main show for southern Minnesota later today has already begun
in southeast South Dakota, and northeast Nebraska. This is where the
main short wave and increasing wind shear was noted. As per SPC, an
enhanced area of severe storms is likely later today in the warm
sector across southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin.
The main threat will be damaging straight line winds as forward
propagating shear vectors will increase above 50 kts later today.
Thus, once these storms become surface based, severe straight line
winds will increase. Several of the CAMS suggest this scenario this
afternoon, and into the evening. Once this activity moves off to
eastern Wisconsin tonight, there remains enough elevated
instability, associated with a deep upper level trough over the
Dakotas, to produced isolated/scattered showers/storms overnight,
and Tuesday. However, the severe weather threat will decrease
significantly after midnight. Tuesday will also see a substantial
decrease in the humidity levels as dew points drop into the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

The long term period will start off post-frontal with dry and cooler
weather.  The next chance of appreciable rainfall looks to come on
Friday, when an upper level shortwave embedded in a longwave
trough moves through. This will bring thunderstorms to the area,
but the severe risk looks best to our south.

By tomorrow night, the front will have finally cleared the entire
forecast area, with dry northerly flow spreading southward across
the area and a relatively cool night ahead. With the upper level
trough overhead, and dry high pressure moving in at the surface,
overnight lows in the 40s will be common across much of MN and
western WI, with some low to mid 50s mixed in across the metro and
far southern MN. Wednesday will be a quiet day with high pressure
still over the Upper Midwest. Highs will top out in the low 70s
under partly cloudy skies.

The surface high will slide to our east Thursday, leading to
southerly low level winds and increasing dew points especially in
western MN. 850H warm air advection will continue into the night as
lead shortwave energy arrives, which will bring a chance of
overnight thunderstorms to the area.  Given the instability in the
area and shortwave energy continuing to move through in pieces,
there could be continuous isolated to scattered storm activity
during the day Friday.  The highest likelihood of storms comes
Friday night when the main shortwave and associated surface trough
move in, with widespread thunderstorm activity looking fairly
reasonable.

High pressure looks to follow that system setting the stage for a
pleasant Labor Day Weekend across the region.  However, the ECMWF is
still at odds with the GFS and is indicating a chance for rain for
Labor Day itself.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

There is a high probability of TSRA across most of southern
Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this afternoon, through
the early evening. There are some minor timing differences,
but confidence remains high that MPX Taf sites from KRWF to KRNH
will see a line of storms from 20z to 01z. Outside of the main
complex/line of storms, isolated/scattered activity is likely, but
timing and areal coverage is problematic. Any of these storms
will be capable of producing very strong winds, and hail. Based on
this line segment, a half hour to an hour of IFR conditions are
likely. After 01z, the bulk of the stronger storms will move east
of the MPX Taf sites. MVFR/IFR cigs are possible toward Tuesday
morning with winds slowly becoming northwest.

KMSP...

The best scenario is between 22-01z for the strongest storm
activity moving across the airport. As said before, there will be
a half hour or an hour of IFR conditions with strong westerly
winds. Winds will remain south this afternoon, light and variable
overnight, and northwest on Tuesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Wed...VFR. Wind NW at 5-10kt bcmg S Wednesday night.
Thu...VFR. Wind SE at 10G20kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 AM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281700-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1147 AM CDT Mon Aug 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe weather has become increasingly likely this afternoon
across southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin this
evening. The main threats are damaging winds, large hail, and
heavy rainfall. A few tornadoes are also possible. Southwest
Minnesota will likely see storms after 2 pm, with areas to the
east, and northeast, likely seeing the bulk of the activity
between 3 pm and 7 pm. Most of west central Wisconsin will see
thunderstorms after 7 pm.

High heat and humidity are likely again this afternoon, primarily
over east and south central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin
ahead of the cold front. Those who are active outdoors will be at
risk for heat illness if precautions are not taken.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

More thunderstorms are expected Thursday night and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed as early as 2-3
pm across southwest, and west central Minnesota. Spotter
activation will likely be needed in south central, and east
central Minnesota after 4 pm. West central Wisconsin will likely
need spotter activation after 5 pm.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             2 E WESTPORT            45.72N 95.14W
08/27/2018  M1.25 INCH       STEARNS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED QUARTER TO HALF
            DOLLAR SIZED HAIL.

&&

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
417 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNZ043-049-050-272200-
Benton-Morrison-Stearns-
417 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BENTON...
NORTHEASTERN STEARNS AND SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTIES...

At 417 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Elmdale, or 13
miles southwest of Little Falls, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Little Falls, Albany, Avon, Pierz, Royalton, Holdingford, Randall,
Upsala, Swanville, Bowlus, Flensburg and Rice.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 146 and 155.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 134 and 168.

LAT...LON 4616 9437 4616 9418 4577 9388 4556 9457
      4575 9465 4590 9464 4603 9465 4619 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 239DEG 38KT 4582 9452

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
425 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW TRUMAN            43.83N 94.45W
08/27/2018                   MARTIN             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE BRANCHES AND A TREE DOWN. ESTIMATED
            WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH.

&&

ETA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
435 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNZ043-049>051-272245-
Benton-Morrison-Sherburne-Stearns-
435 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Benton...Morrison...Sherburne...Stearns...

At 434 PM CDT...A line of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
was along a line extending from Little Falls to Watkins, moving east
at 40 mph.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
St. Cloud, Little Falls, Sauk Rapids, Waite Park, St. Joseph, Cold
Spring, Collegeville, Foley, Rockville, Clearwater, Richmond and
Avon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 150 and 178.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 146 and 193.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

LAT...LON 4598 9381 4598 9377 4545 9375 4540 9401
      4542 9405 4539 9407 4532 9446 4532 9450
      4589 9455 4616 9391 4616 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 240DEG 33KT 4589 9434 4511 9439

BORGHOFF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
507 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

MNZ044-045-052-053-272245-
Isanti-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Chisago-
507 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KANABEC...NORTHWESTERN
CHISAGO...MILLE LACS AND NORTHWESTERN ISANTI COUNTIES...

At 507 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from Isle to near Dalbo. Movement was
northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mille Lacs Lake, Princeton, Mora, Rush City, Milaca, Brunswick,
Onamia, Isle, Foreston, Ogilvie, Wahkon and Grasston.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 157 and 163.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 179 and 227.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4625 9344 4615 9343 4616 9306 4598 9306
      4598 9314 4574 9314 4573 9285 4564 9289
      4556 9376 4598 9377 4598 9381 4621 9381
      4625 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 2207Z 247DEG 41KT 4614 9348 4562 9345

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
515 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KASOTA                  44.29N 93.96W
08/27/2018                   LE SUEUR           MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE KASOTA AREA.

&&

SPD