Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
744 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Little change to ongoing flood threat. High risk issued by WPC
earlier highlighting high QPF totals from near Waseca-Owatonna-Red
Wing and Eau Claire. Have 3 to 4 inch totals in the gridded
forecast, but we could see 5 to 8 inch totals in the
aforementioned band. Expect the heavier band associated with mid
level forcing over central MN to gradually diminish through 00z.
The deeper low level forcing over the southeast and its deeper
convection should also help this transition to over the southeast
portion of the cwa into the night. Expect diminishing trend after
06z over south central MN and by 09z to the far east. Most of the
convection should be ending by the time with more residual
lighter showers possible into early Wednesday/after 12z.

Following this system we should see decreasing clouds and much
drier air move into the area. Dewpoints are expected to drop off
to the upper 40s/mid 50s. Highs will be ranging a few degrees
other side of 70, making for a much more comfortable day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Highs pressure will dominate the weather through most of the week.
Next threat of rain arrive later in the weekend, into early next
week with models indicating the approach of another frontal
system. We went with blended guidance/low end PoPs for this.
Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend as the high drifts
east, but will range at or slightly below normal for several days.
The remnants of Gordon appear to drift off to the southeast of
the area late in the week as the Canadian high pressure system
holds firm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 731 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Rain will move across the region this evening and taper off
overnight. The threat for thunder has decreased to removed it from
all TAF sites. Clouds will become MVFR/IFR, but northwest winds
should bring in drier air so expect VFR conditions to return for

KMSP...
MVFR/IFR conditions possible as ceilings lower overnight. The risk
of thunder has decreased considerably, so have removed mention
from the TAFs. Winds will become northwest and should bring in
drier air which will lift cloud bases. VFR conditions will return
on Wednesday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...VFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ016-023>028.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ074>076-
     082>084-091-092.

     Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ070-077-078-
     085-093.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

WIZ028-050045-
Eau Claire-
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Eau Claire...

At 648 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS over Eau Claire. 1 to 2 inches have already fallen and
we expect another 1 to 2 inches in the next hour.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Eau Claire, Altoona, Augusta, Fall Creek, Ludington, Foster,
Brackett, Lake Eau Claire County Park, Allen and Seymour.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 60 and 87.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 92.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4459 9114 4460 9165 4473 9165 4486 9160
      4485 9092 4484 9092
TIME...MOT...LOC 2348Z 180DEG 0KT 4476 9130

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
703 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

MNZ085-093-050100-
Steele-Freeborn-
703 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Steele...Freeborn...

At 701 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS over Owatonna and surround areas of Steele and Freeborn
Counties. Two to three inches of rain has fallen in some of these
areas, and another inch or two may fall in the next hour. Creeks are
running very high and standing water in low areas of roadways can be
expected.
.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Owatonna, Albert Lea, Blooming Prairie, Medford, Clarks Grove,
Ellendale, Glenville, Geneva, Emmons, London, Hartland and
Hollandale.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 1 and 49.
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 149 and 173.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 166 and 182.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4351 9356 4385 9347 4385 9341 4407 9341
      4419 9338 4419 9305 4350 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0001Z 180DEG 0KT 4389 9329

CCS

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