Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
318 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Little change to ongoing flood threat. High risk issued by WPC
earlier highlighting high QPF totals from near Waseca-Owatonna-Red
Wing and Eau Claire. Have 3 to 4 inch totals in the gridded
forecast, but we could see 5 to 8 inch totals in the
aforementioned band. Expect the heavier band associated with mid
level forcing over central MN to gradually diminish through 00z.
The deeper low level forcing over the southeast and its deeper
convection should also help this transition to over the southeast
portion of the cwa into the night. Expect diminishing trend after
06z over south central MN and by 09z to the far east. Most of the
convection should be ending by the time with more residual
lighter showers possible into early Wednesday/after 12z.

Following this system we should see decreasing clouds and much
drier air move into the area. Dewpoints are expected to drop off
to the upper 40s/mid 50s. Highs will be ranging a few degrees
other side of 70, making for a much more comfortable day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Highs pressure will dominate the weather through most of the week.
Next threat of rain arrive later in the weekend, into early next
week with models indicating the approach of another frontal
system. We went with blended guidance/low end PoPs for this.
Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend as the high drifts
east, but will range at or slightly below normal for several days.
The remnants of Gordon appear to drift off to the southeast of
the area late in the week as the Canadian high pressure system
holds firm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Will continue with the overall showers and thunderstorms through
the early evening over most of the area. KAXN will be on the edge
of any significant rain. The heaviest activity will develop from
SC and EC MN to WC WI later this afternoon and evening. MKT and
EAU will likely be the worst hit, with MSP and RNH on the heavier
rain band. Conditions will improve overnight and Wednesday
morning as drier air pushes in.

KMSP...MVFR to IFR conditions into early evening as main
precipitation shield moves through. May see a band of +Tera move
through into early evening with rain exiting after 06z Wed. MVFR
should break through midmorning with n-nw winds brining in drier
conditions.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Wed night...VFR. Wind N 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for WIZ016-023>028.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ074>076-
     082>084-091-092.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MNZ070-077-078-085-
     093.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

MNZ041>045-047>069-073-WIZ014-015-051730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Redwood-Polk-
Barron-
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota...west
central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Periods of thunderstorms are expected. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ016-023>028-051730-
Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-
Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
1230 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight. Periods of
thunderstorms are expected to produce very heavy rainfall and
several inches are possible. There is a Moderate Risk of excessive
rainfall.

There is also a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening. A few severe storms capable of damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon or evening.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
323 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WASECA                  44.09N 93.50W
09/04/2018                   WASECA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT LOCALIZED
            FLOODING ON HIS STREET. DID NOT PROVIDE
            WATER DEPTH ESTIMATION OR PHOTO.

&&

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

WIZ028-042200-
Eau Claire-
430 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAU CLAIRE
COUNTY...

At 430 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Requa, or 17
miles northeast of Whitehall, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairchild.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Funnel clouds from this shower/thunderstorm could briefly touch down
as weak tornadoes. People in the effected area should remain inside a
sturdy structure until the shower/thunderstorm passes.

LAT...LON 4460 9117 4464 9117 4471 9093 4460 9093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 243DEG 21KT 4458 9112

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
505 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

WIZ027-028-042230-
Chippewa-Eau Claire-
505 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHWESTERN EAU CLAIRE COUNTIES...

At 504 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Altoona, or 7
miles south of Eau Claire, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eau Claire, Altoona, Lake Hallie and Seymour.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 65 and 72.
 U.S. Highway 53 between mile markers 86 and 94.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Funnel clouds from this thunderstorm could briefly touch down as
weak tornadoes. People in the effected area should remain inside a
sturdy structure until the shower/thunderstorm passes.

LAT...LON 4470 9150 4472 9160 4490 9144 4486 9119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2204Z 219DEG 24KT 4476 9150

ETA