Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
612 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Two areas of concern for precipitation chances over the next
several hours, especially before noon. The first area will be driven
by a complex of storms that are currently moving across northeast
Iowa. This area will likely force more development across south
central, and southeast Minnesota, as well as west central Wisconsin
prior to daybreak. The best coverage will occur in west central
Wisconsin where instability remains favorable. The other area of
concern is a complex of storms in eastern Nebraska. This area will
likely enhanced moisture advection at mid-levels across far south
central Minnesota during the morning. How far north the
precipitation develops remains questionable, but it will likely stay
south of the Twin Cities metro area. However, mid-high level
moisture will likely hold onto most of the southeastern 1/4 of
Minnesota through the early afternoon. This may hold temperatures
from rising into the lower 80s, but a strong sun angle continues, so
80s are still likely, especially in western Minnesota where more
sunshine is expected.

A weak frontal boundary will stall just south of the Minnesota
border this afternoon with weak high pressure holding across the
region through early evening. By the late evening, and especially
after midnight, return flow and strong moisture advection will
commence with precipitation redeveloping along the Iowa border. This
area of precipitation will likely spread northward toward Sunday
morning across most of southern Minnesota, as well as west central
Wisconsin.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Not much changes from the status quo for the long term, it will
continue to be the haves and have nots in terms of rainfall. 7-day
QPF from WPC paints widespread 5 to 10 inches from southeast NE
to southern WI, with a relatively tight gradient on either side of
the swath. Unfortunately this means little meaningful rainfall
for those that have been missed repeatedly last month and even
more excessive rainfall for those that have been hammered in the
past few weeks.

The culprit continues to be a seasonably hot ridge over the mid
Atlantic states that refuses to budge. Disturbances, nightly LLJs,
and a nearly stalled surface boundary will be the focus for
nearly continuous thunderstorm complex development mostly to our
south and east. Confidence is quite low through at least mid week
in terms of timing and PoP potential locally. In addition, even
though models show occasional northward surges of the front into
the CWA, most notably Sunday and Tuesday, we've been told this
story before, and not too surprisingly the running QPF totals have
been trending down recently here while increasing south and east.
Given the low confidence, however, couldn't identify any targets
of opportunity for PoP removal so the forecast as a whole is
likely too high for rainfall potential.

The front sags a bit further south late week with high pressure
building into the Upper Midwest, increasing forecast confidence
some late in the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

Confidence remains high that areas of IFR/MVFR cigs/vsby from
west central-central Minnesota, and eastward into south central
Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin, will continue for a few
hours this morning. KAXN will likely see VFR in the next couple of
hours as drier air continues to move southward over western
Minnesota. Elsewhere, boundary layer moisture remains high through
15-18z which leads to these MVFR/IFR conditions to continue. KEAU
may not see VFR conditions until after 20z. Winds will become
northerly this morning as a weak frontal boundary and mixing in
the boundary layer continues to work southward. Confidence is low
but enough that a few SHRA/TSRA are possible toward 12z in
southern Minnesota, especially near KMKT/KRWF.

KMSP...

Confidence is high that MVFR cigs will continue through 15z, with
a slow decrease between 15-17z. After 18z, confidence is higher
that VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon, and
overnight. MVFR cigs and SHRA/TSRA chances develop after 12z
Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sun night...MVFR cigs possible. Slgt Chc TSRA early. Wind N 5 kts.
Mon...MVFR/IFR with -SHRA/TSRA possible. Wind ESE at 10G15 kts.
TUE...MVFR/IFR with -SHRA/TSRA possible early. Wind SSW 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
356 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
020900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
356 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Patchy dense fog will continue for areas of west central and
central Minnesota this morning.

Isolated non-severe thunderstorms will occur in portions of south
central, and southeast Minnesota, as well as west central
Wisconsin through 9 am.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday. The
probability for severe weather is low, but heavy rainfall is
possible at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
343 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

MNZ041>044-047>050-054>057-064-011200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Yellow Medicine-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls,
Princeton, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison, Benson,
Montevideo, Willmar, and Granite Falls
343 AM CDT Sat Sep 1 2018

...PATCHY DENSE FOG THROUGH SUNRISE...

An area of low clouds and fog has expanded over west central and
central Minnesota overnight. Some areas have experienced
localized dense at times. This area of fog will continue through
sunrise with patchy areas of dense fog from Montevideo, northeast
to Alexandria and Long Prairie. If driving this morning, please be
extra cautions in those areas.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
625 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               44.74N 92.48W
08/31/2018  M2.00 INCH       PIERCE             WI   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
813 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

WIZ027-011400-
Chippewa-
813 AM CDT SAT SEP 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY...

At 813 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Tilden, or 7
miles north of Eau Claire, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Chippewa Falls, Lake Hallie, Lake Wissota, Cadott, Boyd, Tilden,
Bateman, Jim Falls and Eagleton.

LAT...LON 4487 9153 4505 9157 4514 9112 4490 9103
TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 251DEG 26KT 4496 9146