Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
652 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Main concern is convective trends overnight into Monday.

Main corridor of instability remains off to the west and this trend
should continue through the evening. We will continue the
categorical PoP trend for that region with chance PoPs into central
portions through midnight. The far east will remain dry through the
night. Expect forcing with northern stream exiting/shearing trough
will slide off to the northeast overnight and should weaken. Forcing
will then be redirected farther south late tonight into Monday as the
upper circulation moves east/southeast over northern Missouri and
southern Iowa. Expect deeper convection developing this region
overnight and will likely steal some of the better moisture and
impede better influx into eastern MN. Still believe we will some
some convection develop and lift over mainly the southern third of MN
into Monday with east central MN really on the cutoff of any
significant moisture. Could see some heavier QPF into portions of
west central MN into the evening as the upper trough slides off to
the northeast taking the better deformation with it. Heavier rains
will develop mainly south of MN into Monday. Thicker cloud cover and
rain chances should limit temperatures Monday, with 70s common over
the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

For the long term period, quasi-zonal flow develops aloft. We look
to have a few dry and mild days in the wake of Monday's system until
a decent mid-level shortwave traverses the westerly flow regime on
Thursday night and Friday. Model agreement is quite good regarding
this feature, so have confidence to include likely POPS at this
point.  There isn't a surface trough that passes with this feature,
so the threat for severe storms looks marginal at best. Next
weekend, however, models do prog a surface trough to nose into the
region attendant with some shortwave energy upstairs. There are more
notable differences between the GFS and ECMWF, however, so lower
confidence exists regarding temporal and spatial details. Therefore
we only included low POPs at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

Not expecting too much eastward progress in the showers and
thunderstorms tonight from western MN. This activity will weaken
to showers as it finally advances eastward across eastern MN and
western WI Monday. Cigs will be VFR tonight, but will likely
become MVFR Monday.

KMSP...A few stray showers are possible tonight, but the best
chance for any rain will wait until Monday morning. Cigs will
deteriorate during that time as well.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...MVFR possible early, then VFR. Wind NNW at 10G15 kts.
Wed...VFR. Wind W at 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Wind SW 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

MNZ041>043-047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092-201800-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-
Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-Faribault-
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible later this
afternoon into tonight. The threat for severe weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday across the area. The
probability for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ044-045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-201800-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Le Sueur-
Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-
Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
1255 PM CDT Sun Aug 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west central
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms possible tonight. The threat for severe weather is
very low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Monday across the area. The
probability for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
729 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

MNZ041-048-200145-
Pope-Douglas-
729 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Pope...Douglas...

At 727 PM CDT...Thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from near Alexandria and Carlos to eastern Pope
county. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible over the next
couple hours.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Alexandria, Glenwood, Carlos, Miltona, Garfield, Belle River, Grove
Lake, Villard, Gilchrist, Nelson, Forada and Westport.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 97 and
114.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4541 9513 4541 9541 4596 9552 4611 9526
      4611 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 193DEG 3KT 4593 9538 4548 9524

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
843 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

MNZ054-056-064-200245-
Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Lac Qui Parle-
843 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

Chippewa...Yellow Medicine...Lac Qui Parle...

At 841 PM CDT...thunderstorms with heavy rain were located along a
line extending from near Milan to southwest of Montevideo and
southwest of Granite Falls. Storms are drifting slowly northward.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible over the next couple
hours.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Montevideo, Granite Falls, Dawson, Clarkfield, Wood Lake, Milan,
Maynard, Hanley Falls, Watson, Boyd, Hazel Run and Granite Falls
Airport.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 21 and 52.
 U.S. Highway 59 between mile markers 97 and 107.

This includes Prairies Edge Casino Resort.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4515 9597 4507 9565 4491 9545 4489 9546
      4489 9548 4480 9548 4462 9552 4480 9587
      4488 9606
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 195DEG 5KT 4501 9591 4487 9575 4474 9555

BORGHOFF