Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
239 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

As of early this afternoon, a cold front stretched southwest to
northeast across western MN, already having moved through Alexandria
and quickly approaching the St. Cloud area as it moves southeast.
Some clearing today has helped steepen low level lapse rates and
latest RAP analysis and forecast indicates 1,000-2,000 j/Kg of CAPE
along and south of the front through the afternoon.  A few very
spotty cells are beginning to break out across southern and central
MN in the warm sector where temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s
with dew points in the mid 60s.

Expecting additional thunderstorm development through the afternoon,
but an analysis of model soundings indicate a long skinny-CAPE setup
with mainly speed shear, but a lack of directional shear. The slight
risk area clipping far eastern MN and western WI still looks to be
our best bet to get strong storms as the afternoon wears on with
more time to destabilize in the warm sector.  The skinny CAPE and
unidirectional deep shear environment will produce scattered
thunderstorms along the front through the afternoon, but most storms
should be sub-severe.  A few strong storms would pose a risk of
damaging winds, and possibly large hail.

The front will clear the area from west to east, with clearing skies
likely tonight behind the front.  Cold air advection will ensue for
Thursday, with a stratocu deck expected to drop in from the north as
we remain in deep cyclonically curved flow on the west side of the
deep upper trough.  Highs tomorrow will be held in the upper 60s to
low 70s with northwest winds of 10-20 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Quiet & pleasant to start of the long term period with a broad area
of high pressure across the northern plains & northwest flow aloft
keeping our temperatures a few degrees below normal & skies, for the
most part, sunny. Can't rule out some precip chances Saturday &
Sunday as the jet aloft pivots over the area & cooling temperatures
aloft allows for some diurnally-driven scattered showers &
thunderstorms. Chances look a little better on Sunday afternoon
compared to Saturday as a bit more of an organized vorticity maxima
passes over the area. Regardless, expect most areas to stay dry for
most of the the weekend given the scattered coverage so expect a
cooler & partly sunny weekend, but be prepared for a passing shower
or two.

Beyond the weekend, we remain under the deep upper-level trough over
the Great lakes with 500 mb heights on the order of 2 standard
deviations below the mean for late July/early August. A few
perturbations aloft will continue to pass overhead & potentially kick
off a few scattered showers & thunderstorms each afternoon but
otherwise things are expected to stay dry. Temperatures slowly
rebound back into the mid-80s by Wednesday as the ridge over the
southwest begins to build back into the upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Mainly VFR this afternoon, but scattered showers and thunderstorms
are still possible along an approaching cold front. The front is
just moving through the Alexandria area, and winds there have
turned northwesterly where they will stay for the remainder of the
forecast period. The front will continue slowly southeast with
scattered showers and storms, and winds will turn northwesterly
behind the front as it moves through. Skies will be mostly clear
after the front has passed, but deep cyclonic flow with the trough
coming in behind the front will lead to an MVFR stratocu deck
coming in from the north tomorrow morning.

KMSP...Thunderstorm coverage along the front is expected to be
isolated to scattered, so kept any mention out of the TAF for now
due to better chances of being dry this afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thursday...VFR. Northwest wind 5 to 15 kt.
Thursday night...VFR. Northwest wind 5 kt or less.
Friday...VFR. Northwest wind around 5 kt.
Friday night...VFR. Variable wind less than 5 kt.
Saturday...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or less.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...SPD

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
123 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

MNZ043>045-049>053-056>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-261830-
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-
Washington-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-
Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-
Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
123 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area this
afternoon. A few storms could be strong or severe with large hail
and damaging winds possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.
The risk for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

MNZ041-042-047-048-054-055-261830-
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-
123 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday and Monday afternoons.
The risk for severe weather is low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             1 NNE WINNEBAGO         43.78N 94.17W
07/25/2018  E1.00 INCH       FARIBAULT          MN   PUBLIC

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
428 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             1 SSE SANBORN           44.20N 95.12W
07/25/2018  E1.00 INCH       REDWOOD            MN   PUBLIC

            MOSTLY DIMES WITH A FEW UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
            HEAVY RAIN ALSO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
428 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

MNZ061-252200-
Anoka-
428 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ANOKA COUNTY...

At 428 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cedar, or 13
miles south of Cambridge, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will be near...
  Ham Lake and East Bethel around 435 PM CDT.
  Lino Lakes around 445 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Oak Grove, Bethel,
Cedar and Centerville.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4538 9302 4517 9302 4516 9303 4532 9342
      4542 9336 4542 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 288DEG 34KT 4535 9330

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
446 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             EAST BETHEL             45.36N 93.23W
07/25/2018  M0.88 INCH       ANOKA              MN   PUBLIC

&&

AMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
451 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             3 SE DARFUR             44.02N 94.79W
07/25/2018  M1.50 INCH       WATONWAN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY WFO FSD.

0430 PM     HAIL             2 E DARFUR              44.05N 94.80W
07/25/2018  M1.50 INCH       WATONWAN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY WFO FSD.

0425 PM     HAIL             6 W COMFREY             44.12N 95.02W
07/25/2018  M1.00 INCH       BROWN              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL WAS QUITE JAGGED, NOT ROUND.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
502 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

MNZ082-083-091-092-252230-
Blue Earth-Watonwan-Martin-Faribault-
502 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN FARIBAULT...
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN...SOUTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
WATONWAN COUNTIES...

At 502 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Truman, or 15
miles north of Fairmont, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winnebago, Truman, Lewisville, Granada, South Branch, Northrop,
Huntley and Guckeen.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 108 and 116.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 16 and 25.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4383 9461 4398 9446 4379 9405 4360 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 307DEG 36KT 4386 9445

ETA