Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The main concern in the short term is areal extent of lower clouds
today and any shower threat into the evening.

Latest satellite showing lower clouds have advanced north to north
of the Minnesota River to south of the metro. Flow under the upper
ridge is beginning to turn more southerly per trend of 925mb flow
off the RAP/HRRR. This should lift lower clouds into the metro this
morning. Question remains if there will be any significant mixing to
bring breaks in the lower cloud deck. Will bring the clouds to near
a Willmar/MSP/EAU line for now. Temperatures under the thicker
clouds should remain in the 60s with some lower 70s where there will
be a little more sunshine into central MN. Some marginal CAPE
developing into the evening over the northern portion of the cwa in
max heating and there is a small threat of isolated showers in the
evening. This was indicated on the NAM/RAP and the 00z ECMWF. Will
have to monitor cloud trends for area of max heating is these do
materialize.

Still a small threat of thunder into south central MN overnight as
frontal boundary remains fixed over southern IA. It still could clip
the far south overnight so we retained the small chance PoP there.
Overnight lows should remain warmer as there does appear to be some
remaining cloud cover and dewpts will be a bit higher.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

The long term continues the threat of showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday night into Thursday. Cooler and drier conditions build
into the area Friday with the next surge of moisture arriving for
the weekend.

The upper trough will move through the region Wednesday night
affect mainly the eastern portion of the CWA for Thursday.
Instability remains with MUCAPEs forecast around 800 J/kg into
Thursday afternoon across west central WI so will maintain
thunder threat into the evening.

Drier and somewhat cooler conditions follow this trough as high
pressure moves through. Temperatures will cool back into the 70s
over eastern area with more clouds and still low/mid 80s to the
west.

The longer term deterministic models bring another western CONUS
trough moving across east Saturday/ Saturday night. We should see
more cloud cover with this trough and overall severe threat looks
limited. MUCAPEs are progged to increase to around 1000 J/kg over
the west Saturday afternoon as the trough approaches. Will carry
thunder threat east over the CWA into Saturday evening. Following
this system the models diverge on overall timing of the next
possible frontal boundary Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

VFR conditions with scattered thunderstorms bringing MVFR and
gusty winds at times this afternoon. Storms will become more
widespread this evening, but should diminish overnight as they
move west to east. Another round of showers, and possibly some
thunderstorms are should develop for Wednesday morning.

KMSP...
VFR conditions with scattered thunderstorms bringing MVFR and
gusty winds at times this afternoon. The best window for storms
will be after 22Z. Storms will become more widespread this
evening, but should diminish overnight. Another round of showers,
and possibly some thunderstorms are should develop for Wednesday
morning through Wednesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...VFR with MVFR/-SHRA possible. Wind NW at 10G20kt.
FRI...VFR/MVFR. Wind E at 10G15kt.
Sat...VFR with MVFR/TSRA. Wind SE at 10 bcmg NW at 10kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ060>063-068>070.

&&

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
112 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
301815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
112 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Heat index values this afternoon will be in the mid to upper 90s
across much of east and south central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and become
widespread this evening. A few storms will be strong to severe and
capable of producing damaging winds, large hail and heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms will be possible again Wednesday and Wednesday
night. A few storms could be strong to severe. Gusty winds is the
primary concern.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ074-075-083-300000-
Brown-Blue Earth-Nicollet-
627 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BROWN...
NORTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND CENTRAL NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 627 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Searles, or
near New Ulm, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
New Ulm, Nicollet, Courtland, Lafayette, Klossner, New Ulm Airport
and Searles.

This includes U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 100 and 120.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4417 9452 4445 9453 4445 9415 4427 9413
      4418 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 179DEG 19KT 4425 9440

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E RICE LAKE           45.50N 91.70W
05/29/2018                   BARRON             WI   STORM CHASER

            12 INCH TREE SNAPPED IN HALF.

&&

CARLYON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ082-083-300000-
Blue Earth-Watonwan-
630 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN BLUE EARTH AND
EASTERN WATONWAN COUNTIES...

At 630 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lewisville, or
20 miles north of Fairmont, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. James, Lake Crystal, Madelia, Lewisville, Garden City, South
Branch, La Salle, Grogan and St James Airport.

This includes U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 38 and 42.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4385 9461 4411 9467 4411 9437 4412 9436
      4412 9413 4385 9423
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 179DEG 19KT 4393 9449

EAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
636 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ093-300000-
Freeborn-
636 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FREEBORN COUNTY...

At 636 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Northwood
Municipal, or near Northwood, moving north at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Glenville and Myrtle.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4361 9329 4364 9308 4350 9309 4350 9324
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 179DEG 19KT 4349 9315

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ082-091-300015-
Watonwan-Martin-
641 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A DANGEROUS SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MARTIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN WATONWAN COUNTIES...

At 641 PM CDT, a dangerous snow squall was located near Fairmont,
moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this dangerous squall.

Locations impacted include...
Fairmont, Truman, Welcome, Ceylon, Iowa Lake, Okamanpedan Lake,
Granada, Northrop, Ormsby, Fairmont Airport, Imogene and Wilbert.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 91 and 108.

LAT...LON 4350 9466 4387 9470 4387 9436 4385 9436
      4385 9431 4350 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 171DEG 25KT 4370 9452

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

MNZ091-300015-
Martin-
648 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MARTIN COUNTY...

At 647 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Northrop, or
near Fairmont, moving north at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fairmont, Truman, Welcome, Ceylon, Iowa Lake, Okamanpedan Lake,
Granada, Northrop, Fairmont Airport, Imogene, Wilbert and Foxlake.

This includes Interstate 90 between mile markers 91 and 108.

LAT...LON 4350 9466 4384 9470 4385 9431 4350 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 171DEG 25KT 4370 9448

ETA