Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
542 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Thunderstorms were developing this afternoon along an outflow
boundary that moved westward from near the La Crosse area earlier
this morning. These storms were pulse like and most will produced
gusty winds and very small hail this afternoon and evening. Some of
the wind gusts could produced isolated wind damage if the updraft
becomes strong enough. Otherwise, most of the activity will slowly
decrease in the evening, but may regenerate across central Minnesota
where a cold front lies this afternoon. This area does support
better wind shear which will led to more organized convection if
storms continue. Further to the south/southeast, dry conditions are
expected overnight with humidity levels remaining high.

Although heat indices this afternoon are unseasonably high for late
May, this air mass will begin to move southeast overhead and over
the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see
another heat advisory issued for the metro area for Tuesday, but it
won't be as warm/hot as it has been today. A more significant short
wave will begin to move eastward across the Dakotas on Tuesday. This
will lead to a better chance of precipitation developing Tuesday
afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 423 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Cooler weather and a more active weather pattern will set up for
later this week. There are several rounds of thunderstorms
possible. More detail will be added shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Main aviation concern is thunderstorm development this
afternoon/early evening as several outflow boundaries and a
surface front will likely be the initial point of these storms.
Current satellite indicated an area of enhanced clouds, mainly
altocumulus in south central Minnesota, which is the remnants of
the outflow from thunderstorms near La Crosse earlier today. This
is one area which will be monitor for thunderstorm development in
the next few hours. The other area is along the front in central
Minnesota which currently doesn't have any cumulus clouds
associated with it, but this will change in the next couple of
hours. My TAFs are based on the latest HRRR/RAP reflectivity
forecast and current satellite trends. This means that most of
the activity will begin along the outflow boundaries between
20-22z, and spread out rapidly from weak shear aloft. Therefore,
more development will occur along these outflow boundaries from
convection firing in this afternoon. When the storms develop,
there will be 10-15 minute time frame of gusty winds of 20-30 kts,
along with very heavy rainfall with vsbys dropping to MVFR or
IFR. Between the thunderstorms VFR conditions will continue with a
general east/southeast wind, becoming more south/southeast
Tuesday.

KMSP...

Only additional comments will be the best time frame for TSRA at
the airport will occur around 23-01z. This will likely be updated
once thunderstorms develop this afternoon. Any storms that
develop will be capable of producing wind gusts of 20-30 kts.
After this evening, the next best chance of precipitation will
occur Tuesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind S at 10G20 kts.
THU...Mainly VFR. Chc SHRA/TSRA. Wind NW at 10G20 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NE-E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ023>028.

MN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ051>059-064>067-
     073>078-082>085-091>093.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ060>063-068>070.

&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
117 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
117 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Excessive heat and humidity will lead to unseasonable high heat
index values this afternoon. Thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and tonight. A few storms will be capable of producing
strong down burst winds, and hail. These storms will likely
decrease in intensity, and coverage later this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday through Wednesday. A few
storms could be strong to severe. Gusty winds and hail are the
primary concerns.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Due to the isolated nature of the storms this afternoon and no
organized convection based on weak wind shear, skywarn spotter
activation is not anticipated.

jlt

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
557 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE BLAINE             45.20N 93.19W
05/28/2018                   ANOKA              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN AND INTERTWINED IN
            LIVE POWER LINES. REPORTED AT 128TH AND
            HARPER ST, BLAINE, MN.

&&

CARLYON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             1 NNE PRINCETON         45.58N 93.58W
05/28/2018  M0.50 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   PUBLIC

&&

CARLYON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
632 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

MNZ053-063-WIZ014-290000-
Washington-Chisago-Polk-
632 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN CHISAGO...NORTHERN
WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN POLK COUNTIES...

At 632 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Shafer, or 26
miles southeast of Cambridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Forest Lake, North Branch, Chisago City, Lindstrom, Scandia, Osceola,
St. Croix Falls, Stacy, Balsam Lake, Taylors Falls, Centuria and
Milltown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 133 and 142.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 0 and 5, and
between mile markers 7 and 22.
 U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 163 and 164.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4549 9231 4521 9250 4521 9264 4529 9302
      4536 9302 4558 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 221DEG 30KT 4537 9275

ETA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
639 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             2 E PEASE               45.70N 93.61W
05/28/2018  M1.00 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

MNZ053-WIZ014-290100-
Chisago-Polk-
657 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHISAGO AND POLK COUNTIES...

At 656 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Wolf Creek, or
23 miles east of Cambridge, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
North Branch, Chisago City, Lindstrom, Rush City, Osceola, St. Croix
Falls, Frederic, Luck, Balsam Lake, Taylors Falls, Centuria and
Milltown.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 near mile marker 144, and between mile markers 146 and
163.
 U.S. Highway 8 in Minnesota between mile markers 8 and 22.
 U.S. Highway 61 near mile marker 165.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4565 9215 4524 9243 4538 9297 4573 9307
      4573 9285 4564 9288 4565 9253 4573 9252
      4572 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 214DEG 29KT 4549 9276

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

MNZ085-093-290045-
Steele-Freeborn-
659 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN FREEBORN AND EASTERN
STEELE COUNTIES...

At 658 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Blooming
Prairie, or 11 miles northwest of Austin, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Owatonna, Blooming Prairie, Glenville, London, Hollandale, Hayward,
Merton, Moland, Myrtle, Steele Center and Bixby.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between mile markers 162 and 173.
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 176 and 182.

LAT...LON 4419 9316 4420 9305 4350 9305 4350 9334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 214DEG 29KT 4381 9310

jrb