Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
243 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

Convection has commenced in South Dakota, and into far southwest
Minnesota as of 230 pm. These storms developed along a weak short
wave moving southeast across the Dakotas, combined with MLCAPES of
500-1000 J/KG. Although dew points have only risen into the 40s,
temperatures have managed to rise to near 80 or above. As with
previous discussion, this is a classic example of an inverted V
type of sounding which produces little rainfall, but gusty strong
winds. There was a report of a 46 knot wind gust near Pipestone,
Minnesota this afternoon as one of those thunderstorms moved
overhead and produced a strong downburst. This will be typical
across southwest, and into south central Minnesota during the late
afternoon, and early evening. Soundings are similar in these
areas, but instability rapidly drops off to the north/northeast.
Therefore, there could be isolated storms as far north as the Twin
Cities and Eau Claire, Wisconsin, but any strong storms should be
confined south of this area. This needs to be monitored but
overall chances of any type of severe weather is low. As daytime
heating ends, most of the activity will diminish with only
isolated showers possible through midnight as the main short wave
moves through the area. Sunday looks dry and seasonable with highs
back into the 70s and low humidity levels.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

The extended period will become more active by midweek as a series
of short waves move west to east, as a fast zonal type flow aloft
develops. Timing and strength of these systems will be problematic
due to the limited return flow from the Gulf Of Mexico, but
thunderstorms are still likely by midweek, and into next weekend,
but severe storms will be minimal. The best chances of widespread
or at least better coverage of precipitation will occur late
Tuesday/Wednesday as most weather models depict a fairly deep
trough moving overhead. Moisture looks to be adequate for
thunderstorms, but again, the strength of the storms will be
related to how much instability we obtain.

The next system looks to be Friday, or early next weekend. As said
before, timing and strength of these systems will be related to
upstream conditions and how each wave interacts with surface
features. Confidence is increasing on an active period, but not
necessarily severe. Temperatures will be near or slightly above
normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

High based showers/thunderstorms development is the main concern
this afternoon. Any activity should be isolated, but will monitor
in southwest/south central Minnesota (KRWF/KMKT) for anything
better than VCSH. This is the best area of VCTS this
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, winds will be south/southwest ahead
of the surface front moving southeast across central/east central
Minnesota this afternoon. Slowly winds will shift to the
west/north, and then north/northeast as the main surface front
slides south of Minnesota this evening. Any showers/thunderstorms
should occur before 4z across Minnesota/western Wisconsin.

KMSP...

Timing and how concentrated the showers/storms develop this
afternoon are the main concerns. 22-24z should be initiation time
near the airport, but confidence is low on how much activity
develops due to limited moisture. Will continue the same trend of
the previous TAF. Winds will be generally from the south/southwest
this afternoon, then shift to the west or northeast depending upon
where the surface low moves. Slowly winds will shift to the
north/northeast overnight and remain around 5-10 kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

Sun...VFR. Wind NNE 10G15 kts.
Mon...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Tue...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SSE 10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...JLT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1206 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
061715-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1206 PM CDT Sat May 5 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. A few of the stronger storms could produce gusty
winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Minor river flooding continues along portions of the Mississippi
River and the Minnesota River and its tributaries. The rivers
have crested and water levels are falling.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
437 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

MNZ059-052200-
Wright-
437 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT COUNTY...

At 436 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Cokato, or 15
miles northeast of Hutchinson, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Montrose, Cokato, Howard Lake, Waverly and Smith Lake.

This includes U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 115 and 132.

LAT...LON 4514 9388 4498 9393 4497 9402 4501 9426
      4514 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2136Z 283DEG 25KT 4506 9418

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
442 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

MNZ065-066-052215-
McLeod-Renville-
442 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND EAST
CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES...

At 442 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Stewart, or 12
miles southwest of Hutchinson, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brownton, Stewart, Sumter, Biscay and Lake Marion Regional Park.

This includes U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 99 and 114.

LAT...LON 4467 9450 4471 9450 4472 9456 4483 9455
      4483 9424 4472 9425 4464 9426 4463 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 287DEG 16KT 4472 9448

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
520 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

MNZ060-052245-
Hennepin-
520 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HENNEPIN COUNTY...

At 519 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Orono, or 16
miles west of Minneapolis, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Maple
Grove, Eden Prairie, Burnsville, Minnetonka, Edina, St. Louis Park
and Shakopee.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4484 9352 4489 9352 4490 9369 4507 9367
      4509 9328 4504 9328 4503 9321 4496 9321
      4488 9318 4484 9321 4481 9325 4478 9336
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 286DEG 27KT 4497 9361

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
533 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

MNZ068-069-052315-
Carver-Scott-
533 PM CDT SAT MAY 5 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN SCOTT AND
SOUTHEASTERN CARVER COUNTIES...

At 532 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Carver, or 21
miles southwest of Minneapolis, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eden Prairie, Lakeville, Shakopee, Savage, Chaska, Chanhassen, Prior
Lake, Victoria, Minnetrista, Jordan, Carver and Shorewood.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 77 and 80.

LAT...LON 4471 9375 4490 9368 4489 9352 4480 9351
      4481 9343 4478 9338 4479 9333 4464 9332
      4463 9328 4457 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 285DEG 27KT 4477 9361

jrb