Fire Weather Watch 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

.Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

Little going on in short term. Sunshine expected again Sunday.
Only real concern is southerly winds developing into Sunday
afternoon. Should be able to see some guts to 35 mph to the west.
Gusty wind will extend into west central WI as well. Expect
temperatures to climb into the upper 60s east and lower 70s west
with some downslope possible to the lee of the Buffalo Ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

Longer term concern remains thunder potential Sunday night
through frontal passage into tuesday evening.

We will continue thunder threat developing into Sunday night with
low level jet in place and increasing mid level instability. Some
severe threat with steep mid level lapse rates/CAPE and decent
shear indicated into Monday. Timing of front still looks to be
Tuesday afternoon s the upper trough swings across North Dakota/
Northwest MN. Instability is best during this period, perhaps a
little overdone on the GFS with 60 plus dewpoints indicated.
Nonetheless, still could see some hail/wind with passage into
Tuesday evening. Monday still looks warm with readings warming to
around 80 to the west and the 70s to the east.

Following the front, cooler readings should end the week, closer
to normal. Some potential of thunder returning again Thursday as
another trough moves east and surface system travels to the south
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

VFR conditions throughout. South Southeasterly winds will
increase with afternoon gusts near 25-30kts on Sunday.

KMSP...
VFR conditions throughout. South Southeasterly winds will
increase with afternoon gusts near 25-30kts on Sunday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SSW 15G25 kt.
Tue...VFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind SSW at 20G30 kt.
Wed...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind W at 10G15 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 CDT Sat Apr 28 2018..

After coordination with surrounding offices and MNDNR/WIDNR we issued
Fire Weather Watch for eastern MN and much of west central Wisconsin
for low RH to around 20 percent and winds gusting 30-35 mph in
the afternoon. Conditions will improve into Sunday evening.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for WIZ014-015-023>026.

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-093.

&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRB
FIRE WEATHER...DWE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
908 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
300215-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
908 PM CDT Sat Apr 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday due to gusty
south winds and low humidity.

Thunderstorms are possible Sunday night through Tuesday evening.
There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms west of I-35
Monday night.

Minor river flooding continues along the Minnesota River and its
tributaries. These elevated flows will bring the Mississippi
River into flood stage Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb