Areal Flood Warning 15, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
249 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Elevated thunderstorms developed along the moisture gradient
across Southwestern and Central MN with heavy rain and wind gusts
near 30- 35 kts. Clearing and an increase in MUCAPE has been
noticed across South Central MN. This clearing trend is expected
to continue through the early afternoon and help destabilized the
boundary layer with near 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE expected by 21Z
(according to the RAP). The surface low will continue to deepen as
it progresses northeastward with its placement over the NE/IA/SD
border at 1930Z.

An Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather remains in place due to the
concern for severe wind, tornado, and hail during the late afternoon
and evening. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold
front with the main mode being linear. However, a few isolated cells
could develop ahead of this line. Bulk shear is expected to be near
60 kts by 00Z across Southern MN and Western WI as 850 mb winds
increase to 50 kts.  LCL values are expected to be near 1000 m and
DCAPE will be near 1300 J/kg, so severe winds will be possible along
the cold front. SFC to 1 km shear will be near 30-40 kts which is
supports the tornado potential.

Storms are expected to exit to the east overnight by 06Z with cold
air advection to follow. Winds will be windy with gusts near 25-30
kts common Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Surface high pressure will be in place to start the long term
period, which will make for a cool start to Saturday morning. With
light winds and clear skies, expect lows to dip into the mid 30s
from parts of central MN across west central WI. Therefore areas
north of I-94 will have the potential for the first frost of the
season. High pressure prevails through the weekend and brings quiet
and dry weather, with highs in the 60s on Saturday. Temps moderate a
tad on Sunday as the high pressure begins to shift southeast and
southerly flow develops. Expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Monday and Monday night there is decent agreement amongst the models
that a decent shortwave trough will move across the north central
CONUS and push a front across the area. Have included high chance
POPs.

Behind this system temperatures cool down slightly below normal,
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

MVFR/IFR ceilings will prevail through this period. Two rounds of
thunderstorms are expected. The first round is a cluster of
thunderstorms that will continue lifting north through Central MN
and Western WI this afternoon. The second round is expected to
develop as a line over Southwestern MN and lift northwest into
Western WI this evening. After that, status and breezy westerly
to northwesterly winds will follow and continue through Friday
morning.

KMSP... Thunderstorm chances will continue through the early
afternoon. There may be a gap in activity near 21Z before the
next round of thunderstorms arrives after 23Z. Thunderstorm
activity is end near 01Z, but low clouds and breezy winds will
continue. MVFR/IFR conditions are anticipated through late Friday
morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri PM...VFR. Wind NW 15G25 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...AMK
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...AMK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1021 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

MNZ051>053-058>063-065>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-211530-
Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-
Washington-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-
Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-
Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
1021 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin
and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in south
central and east central Minnesota, as well as in west central
Wisconsin. The primary risk will be strong winds. Large hail and
heavy rain will also be possible, along with a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon
and early evening.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>057-064-211530-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Yellow Medicine-
1021 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon. The threat for severe
weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
433 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE BROOKLYN CENTER   45.07N 93.31W
09/20/2018  E2.00 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER CALLED TO REPORT PONDING FROM HEAVY
            RAINFALL. NO PHOTO PROVIDED.

&&

CTG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
450 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

MNZ060-062-063-070-202315-
Washington-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-
450 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED...

Very heavy rain with the potential for localized flooding will affect
the following counties...

Washington...Dakota...Hennepin...Ramsey...

At 449 PM CDT...Additional thunderstorms were moving into the Twin
Cities metro area. These will bring the potential for an additional
inch or more of rain to locations that have already seen 1 to 3
inches of rain this afternoon. This could lead to flooding of urban
and poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Eagan, Woodbury, Burnsville,
Apple Valley, Edina, Maplewood, Richfield, Cottage Grove and Inver
Grove Heights.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause ponding of water in
urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
drainage areas and low lying spots. Do not attempt to travel across
flooded roads. Find alternate routes. It takes only a few inches of
swiftly flowing water to carry vehicles away.

LAT...LON 4473 9333 4479 9333 4478 9338 4480 9340
      4482 9340 4489 9332 4499 9295 4494 9287
      4489 9289 4482 9301 4472 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 239DEG 0KT 4464 9342

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

MNC019-053-123-202315-
Hennepin-Carver-Ramsey-
521 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING EXPECTED...

Thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause minor flooding in the
following counties...

Hennepin...Carver...Ramsey...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
  thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
  Overflow of water will result in minor flooding of poor drainage
  locations in the area. Up to two inches of rain have already
  fallen.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Minneapolis, St. Paul, Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth, Eden
  Prairie, Minnetonka, Edina, St. Louis Park, Maplewood, Roseville
  and Brooklyn Center.

Additional rainfall of around an inch is expected over the area
through 6 PM. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

This includes the following streams and drainages...Battle Creek...
Bass Creek...South Fork Ninemile Creek...Riley Creek...Ryan Creek...
Bevens Creek...Carver Creek...Bassett Creek...Minnehaha Creek...
Chaska Creek...Bluff Creek...Mississippi River...Ninemile Creek...
Minnesota River and Purgatory Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4473 9379 4479 9381 4497 9358 4507 9339
      4510 9328 4504 9328 4504 9323 4511 9322
      4510 9300 4505 9298 4498 9299 4489 9332
      4482 9340 4480 9357

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
543 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CEYLON                  43.53N 94.63W
09/20/2018                   MARTIN             MN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
550 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WELCOME                 43.67N 94.62W
09/20/2018                   MARTIN             MN   STORM CHASER

            NUMEROUS LARGE BRANCHES DOWN.

&&

TDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
551 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

MNZ060-066>069-075-076-083-202315-
Le Sueur-Blue Earth-Hennepin-McLeod-Carver-Sibley-Scott-Nicollet-
551 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2018

...A LINE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN HENNEPIN...LE SUEUR...
EASTERN SIBLEY...WESTERN SCOTT...NORTHEASTERN MCLEOD...NORTHERN BLUE
EARTH...CARVER AND EASTERN NICOLLET COUNTIES...

At 550 PM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Silver Lake to near New Sweden to
near Lake Crystal. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mankato, Chaska, Chanhassen, North Mankato, St. Peter, Waconia,
Mound, Orono, Victoria, Belle Plaine, Minnetrista and Glencoe.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 14 between mile markers 116 and 134.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 45 and 84.
 U.S. Highway 212 between mile markers 116 and 126.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4405 9426 4493 9422 4500 9360 4472 9361
      4429 9366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 237DEG 56KT 4492 9412 4449 9413 4412 9416

JLT