Areal Flood Warning 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
633 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Updated to include 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Not much to talk about in the short term as any precipitation will
be confined to the Upper Level low moving across the Southern
Plains. A few high cirrus clouds will linger across Minnesota and
Wisconsin, but there is no chance of precipitation over the next
36 hours.

Temperatures will be similar to Saturday, only they should be
slightly warmer based on the air aloft. For that reason blended in
yesterday's highs to capture the fine details, and adjusted to the
model guidance. A lazy area of surface high pressure to the east
will keep light southerly winds in place across the region today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

No significant changes to the longer term forecast. Continued the
trend of a drier forecast for Tuesday along I-94, since the main
forcing and precipitation will be across the southwest part of the
forecast area. Thursday's precipitation will be focused more to the
northeast, so continued that trend in the forecast as well. Neither
one of these two systems will produce much precipitation, with
most locations seeing less than 0.25 inches. Meanwhile did scale
back temperatures on Friday since northwest flow and cold air
advection in the wake of Thursday's system should keep afternoon
highs on the cooler side of guidance.

Split flow remains in place across North America. Most of the
precipitation that falls across the country is tied to the upper
level cutoff low that is currently over the Southern Plains and will
eventually make its way up the east coast. On Tuesday a northern
stream shortwave will move along the International border, while
another wave originating from the Pacific Northwest slides along the
Missouri River Valley. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be in between
these two features so it is looking less likely that precipitation
will occur across the region Tuesday, especially considering the
22.00 ECMWF.

Thursday's upper level trough is a bit stronger, and there is more
widespread QPF being generated by the forecast models. However
this is a positively tilted trough so not sold that there will
actually be precip when the time comes.

As for temperatures, the Upper Midwest is right on the gradient
between the cold air to the north and warm air to the south. The
ECMWF wants to keep the forecast area in the warm air, while the GFS
and GEM are more aggressive with the southern extent of the cold
air. It all depends on how strong the cyclogenesis is Thursday into
Friday across the Great lakes region. Stronger cyclogenesis will
wrap the cold air farther south, while a more progressive ECMWF
gives the Upper Midwest just a glancing blow of the cold air before
returning adiabatically warmed air from the High Plains eastward
toward the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Ridging extending from high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes will continue to keep things quiet across the area through
the period with VFR conditions persisting. Winds will remain
light, with a slow shift from southeast to south over time.

KMSP...No concerns at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Monday afternoon and Monday night...VFR. Variable wind 5 kt or
less.
Tuesday...VFR. Slight chance of a rain shower. Northeast wind 5 to
15 kt.
Tuesday night...VFR. North wind around 10 kt.
Wednesday...VFR. Variable wind around 5 kt.
Wednesday night...VFR. South wind 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest 10
to 15 kt late.
Thursday...MVFR possible with a chance of rain. Southwest wind 10
to 15 kt shifting northwest 10 to 20 kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
230815-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
303 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota...and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Minor river flooding is likely along the Minnesota River from
Montevideo to Mankato, and elevated flows will eventually make it
downstream. Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this
time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

jrb