Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1202 PM CST Thu Nov 8 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...A surface boundary along the coast will combine
with a boundary along the I65 corridor this afternoon. Along and
north of the boundaries, IFR or lower conditions will prevail, south
low end MVFR to VFR. As the forecast moves into tonight, guidance is
advertising the combined boundaries and the accompanying lower
conditions moving south across the area, with IFR or lower
conditions covering more of the area. Later tonight into Friday,
more general southerly flow becomes reestablished and the boundary
moves back north, spreading MVFR to VFR conditions northward. IFR
conditions will be persistent north of the boundary. Western Florida
Panhandle areas will see improving conditions first, with points
further inland seeing improving conditions through the morning into
the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 954 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...Package updated, mainly to bump temperatures down.
Greatest drop is northwest of the I65 corridor, with a cold pool
being maintained by light showers moving northeast across the pool
along with thick cloud cover across the entire area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 623 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...LIFR ceilings and areas of IFR fog (locally down to
LIFR) will impact the region early this morning. Ceilings should
slowly rise to IFR to low end MVFR levels late this morning
through this afternoon. Scattered to numerous SHRA and a few TSRA
will develop over the area today. Another round of IFR to LIFR
ceilings and fog may impact the area again late tonight through
early Friday morning. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Nov 8 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Thursday night/...A moist west to southwest
pattern aloft remains prevalent across the central Gulf Coast region
early this morning on the base of broad cyclonic mid level flow that
encompasses much of the CONUS. A weak stationary frontal boundary
continues to stretch from coastal southeast Mississippi through
southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. Surface observations
indicate that areas of fog have developed across our forecast area
early this morning, but visibility values have mostly remained above
advisory level criteria. Localized dense fog remains possible
through the early morning hours, especially along and ahead of the
frontal boundary. We will continue to monitor local observations
closely.

The next in a series of shortwave impulses will lift northeastward
from the Lower Mississippi Valley toward Alabama this morning.
Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms associated
with this feature are already developing over northern Louisiana and
central Mississippi as of 430 AM CST. The past few runs of the HRRR
along with the 08.00z WRF-ARW are in agreement that scattered to
locally numerous showers and storms will develop later this morning
into this afternoon over our area. It currently appears the best
chance of convection will clip our northwestern zones this morning,
and also across southern and southeastern portions of the forecast
area along the boundary later this morning into this afternoon. We
will maintain rather high POPs in the 60-70% range over these areas
today. A zone of enhanced instability with MLCAPE values between
1000-1500 J/KG along the surface boundary may support a few stronger
storm cells primarily southeast of a Pensacola FL to Andalusia AL
line this afternoon. Brief strong wind gusts in excess of 40 mph
will be possible in these locations. We otherwise expect cooler
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s over interior southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama behind the front today, with
readings in the mid to upper 70s over locations along and southeast
of I-65. A chance of showers may linger into the evening, mainly
over our eastern zones. Yet another shortwave trough axis will bring
increasing rain chances east of the Mississippi Valley late tonight.
Additional patchy fog development appears to be a good bet again
across much of our area late tonight, possibly becoming locally
dense in spots. /21

SHORT TERM /Friday Through Saturday night/...Wet conditions
continue through Friday with a much cooler and drier airmass
moving in Friday night And Saturday in the wake of a cold front.
This will bring much colder air into the region with highs on
Saturday only in the mid and upper 50s with lows Saturday night
in the upper 30s and low 40s inland to upper 40s near the coast.
/13

LONG TERM /Sunday Through Wednesday/...A deep upper trough digs
across the plains early next week which induces sfc low
development across the northwestern Gulf Sunday night into Monday.
The ECMWF is much sharper with the trough which results in the
sfc low rapidly moving northeast into southeast Louisiana and into
central Alabama by Monday night. The GFS is slower to dig the the
trough and keeps the sfc low south of the area and over the Gulf,
before moving it inland near the Florida big bend. This eventual
evolution will have to be watched as the ECMWF solution would
favor a chance of strong thunderstorms as a warm sector develops
across the area. Rain chances decrease on Tuesday with dry
conditions for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another shot of colder
air flows into the region which looks to bring the coldest
temperatures yet of the season. /13

MARINE...A light onshore flow will generally prevail over the
marine area through early Friday morning. The exception will be
light offshore flow during the overnight and early morning hours in
the vicinity of bays and sounds. A cold front will move south across
the marine area late Friday, bringing a strong offshore flow and
building seas to the coastal waters through late Saturday. Small
Craft Advisories effective Friday through Saturday will likely be
issued within the next 12 hours. A light to moderate easterly flow
will develop Sunday. Increasing onshore flow returns Monday before
the next cold front brings strong offshore flow again late Monday
into Tuesday. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
247 PM CST THU NOV 8 2018

ALZ060-082130-
Covington AL-
247 PM CST THU NOV 8 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CST...

At 246 PM CST, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Opp, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Covington County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 8631 3121 8637 3130 8619 3110 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 251DEG 21KT 3116 8626