Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
401 PM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and early
this evening generally ahead and along a weak inverted trof
generally located from north GA to the north central gulf coast
combined with a weak seabreeze circulation progged to shift inland
and move northward later this afternoon. With this better forcing
near the surface and aloft combined with decent instability and
lapse rates in the boundary layer, depicted by the latest hi res
model soundings across the region this afternoon, believe a few
strong thunderstorms could be possible, accompanied with gusty
straightline winds, possible from 35 to 45 mph, frequent cloud
ground lightning and periods of very heavy rain possible leading
to some minor flooding mostly in urban areas. Thunderstorms will
continue to move slowly to the west and northwest through this
evening weakening slowly afternoon sunset later this evening. For
late tonight skies will be partly cloudy to mostly clear with
isolated showers and thunderstorms redeveloping offshore and near
the coast overnight and early Wed. For wed the weak inverted trof
generally in the mid levels will move further west in response to
high pressure aloft approaching from the east. With this pattern
expect less coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the day
on Wed especially to the east compared to today with the best
coverage occurring over inland areas generally over the western
half of the forecast area during the late afternoon and early
evening hours. Movement will continue to be to the west at 10
knots or less. with the better forcing moving off to the west on
Wed the threat for stronger convection should be lower compared to
today.

Temperatures will continue to be near of slightly above seasonal
norms through Wed with lows tonight ranging from the lower to middle
70s for most inland areas and the upper 70s to near 80 along the
immediate coast. Highs Wed will range from the lower to middle 90s
for most inland areas and the upper 80s to near 90 along immediate
coast. 32/ee

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...A medium-
amplified upper level trough will extend from the Great Lakes
region to the Texas/Oklahoma border Wednesday evening. The
southern portion of this trough will dig south-southeastward,
reaching the lower Mississippi River region by Friday evening. A
surface ridge of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic
across the Gulf of Mexico will remain, keeping a mainly light
southwesterly surface wind across the forecast area through the
short term. Also, with the approach of the upper trough, a deep
southwest wind flow will keep precipitable water values around
2.0 inches.

The isolated to low-end scattered showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will dissipate rather quickly by evening, so kept the
entire forecast area rain-free Wednesday night. The combination
of decreasing stability on Thursday and Friday, upper level
impulses east of the trough passing overhead and with a seabreeze
pushing inland each day, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Thursday afternoon and numerous to definite showers and
thunderstorms are forecast throughout the entire day Friday. A few
of the stronger storms could have gusty winds up to 45 mph,
frequent lightning and heavy downpours. /22

.LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...Heading into the first half
of the weekend, mid level ridge to the south and broad long wave
trof extending southward from the Great Lakes keeps a potentially
active westerly flow aloft in place over the central Gulf coast.
Showers and storms likely Saturday. Sunday and Monday, forecasters
continue to see some differences in the 07.00Z geo-potential
height fields between the operational GFS and ECMWF. The GFS shows
a slightly faster eastward progression and more bullish deep trof
moving east across the OH River Valley/Appalachians and southeast
Sunday and Monday. In the other camp, the ECMWF maintains more
deep layer ridging over the Gulf to the south of its trof solution.
Considering the model differences, will maintain a mid range
chance of daily showers/storms late in the medium range. /10

&&

.MARINE...High pressure will continue over the north central gulf
through the week, leading to mostly a light southwest to westerly
wind flow over the marine area through Sat. Seas will range from 1
to 2 feet but locally higher near isolated to scattered
thunderstorms through the week. 32/ee

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  92  73  92  74  91  73  91 /  20  20  10  30  30  80  50  60
Pensacola   76  91  76  90  76  90  76  89 /  20  30  10  30  30  70  50  60
Destin      78  89  78  88  79  87  77  87 /  20  30  10  30  30  70  40  50
Evergreen   74  94  73  92  74  90  72  90 /  20  30  10  40  30  80  50  60
Waynesboro  72  92  72  91  72  89  72  89 /  20  30  10  40  50  80  50  60
Camden      74  94  73  92  74  90  72  90 /  20  40  10  40  50  80  50  50
Crestview   74  93  73  92  74  90  73  90 /  20  20  10  40  20  70  40  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-080915-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
402 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents along the beaches of
Alabama and the northwest Florida panhandle.

Heat index values around 105 are expected this afternoon, with
localized higher values possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Heat index values of 100 to 105 are expected Wednesday and
Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-080915-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
402 AM CDT Tue Aug 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
343 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NE HOLLINGERS ISLAND  30.58N 88.07W
08/07/2018  M47 MPH          MOBILE             AL   MESONET

            WEATHERFLOW MESONET STATION AT BUCCANEER
            YACHT CLUB (XBUC, 3 NE HOLLINGERS ISLAND)
            MEASURED A MARINE WIND GUST OF 47MPH.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT 30.63N 88.07W
08/07/2018  M41 MPH          MOBILE             AL   ASOS

            ASOS SITE AT MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT (BFM)
            MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 41MPH.

&&

MB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
502 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

ALZ053-055-072245-
Clarke AL-Monroe AL-
502 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN MONROE AND EAST CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM
CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles southeast
of Whatley, or 10 miles southeast of Grove Hill, moving south at 10
mph.

Half inch hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Whatley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8784 3170 8750 3145 8749 3141 8760
      3147 8783
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 344DEG 7KT 3159 8766

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
505 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

MSZ078-072245-
Stone MS-
505 PM CDT TUE AUG 7 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
STONE COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over McHenry, or 9
miles south of Wiggins, moving north at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3086 8934 3086 8904 3068 8905 3068 8924
      3065 8924 3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 160DEG 8KT 3072 8912