Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
955 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Showers and storms continue to maintain intensity with
westward propagation toward our northeastern zones. Went ahead and
sent one more quick update to increase POPs to 40-60% over
interior south central AL. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 930 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

UPDATE...A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated
with a weak shortwave trough and outflow boundaries continues to
move westward across the GA/AL line and toward the eastern FL
panhandle as of 9 PM. Satellite and radar trends show some
weakening of the southern extent of the AL/GA convection over the
past half hour, but enough residual instability could support a
continued westward propagation of this activity into our eastern
zones over the next 2-3 hours. We have bumped POPs up a bit (to
around 30-35%) along and east of a Greenville AL to Destin FL line
through the remainder of the evening. All other forecast elements
appear to be on track. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Much less in the way of convection noted across
the area early this evening, but a few SHRA could impact a few
locations for the next couple of hours. Also monitoring a stronger
storm that may approach interior portions of northwest FL and
adjacent south central AL near the vicinity of KCEW/K0J4 over the
next hour. Another round of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA can be
expected Wednesday afternoon. Brief strong/gusty winds and
lowered visibilities can be expected with the stronger convection
that develops. May have to monitor for very patchy MVFR fog/cigs
overnight. Otherwise, VFR generally expected to prevail through
the period. /21

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Wednesday/...An inverted upper level
ridge centered over the forecast area this evening will move west
to the lower Mississippi River region by noon Wednesday, while a
closed upper low pressure system over the western Atlantic also
moves westward and become centered over Cape Canaveral FL by late
Wednesday afternoon. A weak surface low pressure area across south
central Louisiana will drift westward, while the southern portion
of a ridge extending down the Appalachian Mountains to the
northeast Gulf of Mexico shifts west across the forecast area. A
few lingering showers and thunderstorms will dissipate throughout
the evening with loss of daytime surface heating, with additional
scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast along the western
Florida panhandle coastal sections late tonight. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms will encompass the entire forecast area on the
4th of July, with a cluster of numerous showers and thunderstorms
possible across the inland in the afternoon across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. A few of the stronger
afternoon storms will be capable of producing winds up to 35 mph.
/22

SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Friday night/...The next
upper low to impact the area enters the northeastern Gulf
Wednesday night as it rides westward along the southern periphery
of a persistent anticyclone over the Ohio Valley. While showers
and storms should initially remain offshore and along the
immediate coast, activity will spread inland throughout the day
Thursday with improving instability and upper forcing. Scattered
storms then continue across our area through Friday as a second
upper low quickly moves into the northeastern Gulf immediately
following the first one. Meanwhile, the upper high over the Ohio
Valley shifts west over the central Rockies as a massive ridge
builds over the Canadian Rockies and northern Plains. This shunts
the upper lows over the Gulf southwestward into the southwestern
Gulf. High temps both Thursday and Friday will continue to run in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Head indices could creep into the 100
to 105 degrees range for some locations. Lows stay in the low to
mid 70s. /49

LONG TERM /Saturday Through Tuesday/...A vigorous shortwave digs
into the northeastern U.S. over the weekend as a trailing ridge
extends from the central Plains northeast over the Great Lakes.
Beneath the Great Lakes ridge, high pressure at the surface forces
a cold front south into the Tennessee River Valley. The front
stalls and dissipates well before reaching our area, but before
that happens it manages to push a slug of deeper moisture (PWATs
~2.2 inches) south towards our area. This unseasonable moisture,
coupled with afternoon instability, will result in a wetter-than-
normal pattern straight through the weekend. Went with PoPs of
60-70% Saturday and Sunday to reflect this, though some guidance
had chances even higher over inland areas. Greater coverage in
showers and storms will mitigate daytime heating and limit high
temps to the mid and upper 80s each afternoon.

Heading into early next week, the upper high shifts back to the
eastern CONUS and we see a surface ridge build over the local
area. Thus, expecting a return to somewhat more seasonal rain
chances and temperatures. Afternoons will see highs in the low
90s and rain chances around 40-50%, and overnight hours will see
lows in the low to mid 70s and rain chances around 20-30%. /49

MARINE...A light to moderate southeasterly wind flow will diminish
and becoming easterly tonight into Wednesday as a weak surface ridge
of high pressure builds in from the east. A light to moderate east
to southeast flow will continue through early Friday as another weak
area of low pressure develops over the north central gulf, followed
by a light to moderate mainly southwesterly wind flow over the
weekend as high pressure rebuilds over the eastern and north central
gulf. /22

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CDT Wednesday for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
531 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-041045-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
531 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Rip Current Risk.

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase through the course of
the day. At this time, the main threat from storms will be locally
heavy rain resulting in the potential for localized flooding in poor
draining, lower lying areas. Other threats will be frequent
lightning and brief strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A moderate risk for rip currents will continue along the gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through Friday.

Thunderstorms will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall at times
resulting in the potential for localized flooding in poor draining,
lower lying areas. Other threats will be frequent lightning and brief
strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041045-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
531 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase through the course of
the day. At this time, the main threat from storms will be locally
heavy rain resulting in the potential for localized flooding in poor
draining, lower lying areas. Other threats will be frequent
lightning and brief strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to bring locally heavy rainfall at times
resulting in the potential for localized flooding in poor draining,
lower lying areas. Other threats will be frequent lightning and brief
strong wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-041045-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
531 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Environmental conditions support the development of waterspouts this
morning.

Thunderstorms will bring the potential for frequent lightning,
visibility reducing heavy rains, brief strong wind gusts, locally
higher waves and seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will continue to bring the potential for frequent
lightning, visibility reducing heavy rains, brief strong wind gusts,
locally higher waves and seas through Monday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
703 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

ALZ060-FLZ205-040045-
Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
703 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

At 703 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles southeast
of Florala, moving northwest at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florala, Laurel Hill and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3090 8639 3100 8660 3125 8629
      3115 8619 3100 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0003Z 124DEG 25KT 3091 8617

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1110 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

ALZ057-058-040500-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
1110 PM CDT TUE JUL 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1109 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Goshen,
moving west at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Luverne, Rutledge, Glenwood, Petrey, Highland Home and Lapine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3163 8659 3196 8655 3196 8641 3203 8641
      3204 8640 3205 8640 3205 8630 3197 8630
      3197 8620 3196 8618 3189 8617 3179 8620
      3179 8615 3166 8615 3166 8616 3165 8616
      3162 8618 3162 8615 3160 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 102DEG 23KT 3176 8613