Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
700 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...The strongest convection has moved offshore as of
02.00Z, but there is still some scattered SHRA and a few TSRA
across the region, including near KMOB/KBFM/KPNS. We will leave
VCTS near KMOB/KBFM for the next couple of hours with still a few
TSRA within the vicinity of these terminals, and VCSH with weaker
convection near KPNS. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA may continue
through the night with upper level low near the vicinity of the
region. Numerous to widespread SHRA/TSRA is expected Monday,
especially during the late morning and afternoon, so have
prevailing TSRA at all terminals starting mainly after 18Z for
now, but this timing may need to be moved back a little earlier.
Localized MVFR to IFR conditions possible near storms as well as
with patchy early morning fog over interior northwest FL and
south central AL Monday morning, but VFR should otherwise
prevail. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...Thunderstorms will continue to
develop across the region for the rest of the afternoon and likely
lingering into at least the early evening hours, particularly across
the southern half of the area. This is in response to MLCAPES of
1500-2000 J/kg along with the slow westward moving upper level low
and precipitable waters around 2.2 inches. While convection will
likely diminish late this evening, will leave a chance of storms in
the forecast for the southern half of the area given the tropical
airmass and the upper level low. What is uncertain is how much
convection may develop along the coast during the early morning
hours. By this time, the mid to upper low and attendant surface low
is progged to be right along and just offshore of the coast by early
Monday morning. While most guidance has been consistent in keeping
the bulk of the convection offshore, is is possible convection will
increase closer to the low center and impact coastal areas prior to
daybreak. At this point, we will go with high chance pops (40-50%)
for coastal areas during the early morning hours, but will have to
keep an eye on the potential of an increased coverage.

The low pressure system will continue gradually moving westward on
Monday, with the axis of highly anomalous deep layer moisture
persisting over the area. Showers and storms will develop near the
coast in the morning with development spreading inland through the
day. The greatest coverage of storms is likely to be over the
western half of the area tomorrow due the presence of a deeply
reflective trough that extends north from the center of the low
(best low level convergence focus), however rain remains likely
further east.

We will maintain the limited risk of localized flooding through
Monday as the storms will be very efficient rain producers. PNS for
example, recorded 0.62" of rain in 9 minutes a little earlier today,
showing how quickly the rain can accumulate and why localized
flooding is likely wherever storms may train. Given a better focus
for storms tomorrow over the western zones as mentioned above, we
will have to carefully monitor this area for an increase in the
flood threat. 34/JFB

SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...The low
pressure system continues pushing off to our west through Tuesday.
However, enough deep tropical moisture lingers over our western
counties to support higher PoPs (70-80%) and the potential for
heavy rain in stronger storms. Over our eastern counties, drier
air moving in from the east will limit the heavy rain potential
and rain chances (PoPs around 30-40%), though the better mid-
level evaporative cooling could support a gusty downburst wind
potential in stronger storms.

The next in a series of upper-level disturbances moves west into
the eastern Gulf on Wednesday. Ahead of this system, enhanced mid-
and upper-level flow and the return of deeper moisture (PWATs
back to ~2.0 inches) will lead to another bout of unsettled
weather. Have bumped PoPs Wednesday afternoon to 60-70% across
much of the area to reflect this. Stronger storms will be capable
of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours.

In terms of temperatures, expect highs in the upper 80s to around
90 each afternoon and lows in the mid 70s each night through the
period. /49

LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...Our active weather pattern
continues right through the long term as yet another upper low
moves into the eastern Gulf from the western Atlantic. As this
occurs, the upper high over the eastern CONUS shifts west over the
central Plains, which acts to block the aforementioned upper low
from advancing further to the west. As a result, we see a
persistent upper troughing over the northern and eastern Gulf
throughout the long term period. Coupled with deep moisture
characterized by PWATs around 2.0 inches, we're expecting
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day and
maintained likely rain chances over much of the area to reflect
this. Stronger storms will be capable of producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy downpours throughout the period.
Temperatures remain fairly consistent, around 90 degrees each day
and in the mid 70s each night. /49

MARINE...A surface low and attendant trough will gradually move
west across the northern Gulf through early this week. A slight
increase in seas is likely on Tuesday as onshore winds briefly
increase to 10-15 kt. A generally light southeast to east flow is
expected mid to late week as week high pressure builds in from the
northeast. Another weak surface trough will likely move through
marine waters by the end of the week, but it will likely have little
effect on winds/seas.

Thunderstorms can be expected over the coastal waters each day
through the week and will produce locally higher winds/wave along
with frequent lightning. 34/JFB

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
938 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-021445-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
938 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorm coverage is forecast to increase through the course of
the day. At this time, the main threat from storms will be locally
heavy rain resulting in the potential for localized flooding in poor
draining, lower lying areas. Other threats will be frequent
lightning and brief strong wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Storms will bring locally heavy rainfall at times resulting in the
potential for localized flooding in poor draining, lower lying
areas. Other threats will be frequent lightning and brief strong
wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-021445-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
938 AM CDT Sun Jul 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms will bring the potential for frequent lightning,
visibility reducing heavy rains, brief strong wind gusts, locally
higher waves and seas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms will bring the potential for frequent lightning,
visibility reducing heavy rains, brief strong wind gusts, locally
higher waves and seas.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

ALZ264-266-FLZ202-012030-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Escambia Coastal FL-
303 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BALDWIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ESCAMBIA COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Myrtle Grove,
or 4 miles west of West Pensacola, moving west at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
West Pensacola, Warrington, Orange Beach, Lillian, Myrtle Grove,
Perdido Beach and Elberta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3051 8764 3052 8728 3035 8724 3025 8759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 080DEG 17KT 3043 8735

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
424 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MSZ079-012215-
George MS-
424 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
GEORGE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 423 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles west of
Lucedale. This storm was moving slowly southeast at less than 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 8881 3099 8878 3097 8848 3077 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 314DEG 3KT 3092 8872

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
447 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MSZ075-078-079-012230-
Stone MS-Perry MS-George MS-
447 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGE...SOUTH CENTRAL PERRY AND EASTERN STONE COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 16 miles east of
Perkinston, or 16 miles east of Wiggins, moving south at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
George...south central Perry and eastern Stone Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3097 8894 3084 8872 3073 8875 3073 8888
      3068 8889 3068 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 015DEG 8KT 3079 8886

DJ/17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
502 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

FLZ203-012245-
Santa Rosa Inland FL-
502 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of Jay, or 14 miles east of Century, moving southwest at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jay and Point Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3079 8730 3100 8713 3100 8705 3091 8690
      3064 8704
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 031DEG 13KT 3090 8704

DJ/17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
532 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

ALZ263-265-012315-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
532 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Mobile
Regional Airport, or 6 miles northwest of Tillmans Corner, moving
west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Tillmans Corner, Theodore, Grand Bay, Bayou La Batre,
Tanner Williams, Coden, I10 And I65, Mobile Regional Airport and
Alabama Port.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3037 8840 3038 8841 3039 8841 3038 8840
      3041 8840 3080 8841 3080 8834 3070 8807
      3030 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 103DEG 13KT 3065 8824

DJ/17

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
739 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

MSZ075-076-078-079-020130-
Stone MS-Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
739 PM CDT SUN JUL 1 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WESTERN
GEORGE...SOUTHERN PERRY...SOUTHWESTERN GREENE AND NORTHEASTERN STONE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 738 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 6 miles southwest
of McLain, or 18 miles northeast of Wiggins, moving south at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Beaumont, New Augusta and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 8907 3124 8873 3079 8874 3081 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 0038Z 010DEG 27KT 3104 8890

DJ/17