Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
403 PM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

.NEAR TERM /Now Through Monday/...The cold front continues to
progress southeastward across central portions of MS and AL this
afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are developing just north of
our CWA near Meridian and Demopolis as of 3 PM CDT. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms should continue to develop southeastward
into our CWA late this afternoon into early this evening ahead of
this boundary. SPC mesoscale analysis continues to show a very
unstable airmass across our forecast area this afternoon, with
surface based CAPE values between 3500-4500 J/KG and locally near
5000 J/KG. 700-500 mb lapse rates also remain fairly steep between
6.5 and 7.5 C/KM across our region. This environment will certainly
be supportive of a few storm cells capable of producing damaging
downburst winds and potentially even some hail across our region
through early this evening. Given the isolated to scattered nature
of strong to severe storms, a Marginal severe risk remains in place
over the area through this evening. Temperatures having warmed into
the lower to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid 70s is resulting in
afternoon heat indices between 101-106 over much of our region.
These values are shy of heat advisory criteria, but caution should
be exercised if spending periods of time outdoors this afternoon.

High resolution and short range model guidance is in pretty good
agreement that scattered storms should diminish in coverage,
especially by mid to late evening. The axis of higher moisture
pushes offshore late tonight, with a much drier airmass expected to
filter into our forecast area overnight behind the passing cold
front. Dewpoint should be lowering into the 60s away from the
immediate coast late tonight, which should result in cooler
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s over the interior, though
readings should remain in the lower to mid 70s near the immediate
coast.

A much drier airmass through the deep layers should promote mostly
clear and dry conditions on Monday. Even lower dewpoints in the
upper 50s to lower 60s should result in lower humidity values Monday
afternoon. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures should
still average slightly above normal in the upper 80s to lower
90s. /21

.SHORT TERM /Monday night Through Wednesday night/...Shortwave
energy tops an upper ridge stretching north from an upper high
centered over western Mexico and moves into the upper trough over
the Eastern Seaboard Tuesday into Tuesday night. As it approaches
the northern Gulf coast Wednesday, it begins to interact with the
stalled front over the northern Gulf early Monday, bringing rain
to the northern Gulf coast. Best chance of rain will be south and
southwest of the forecast area late Tuesday night through
Wednesday. Guidance varies on how far northeast of the boundary
the rain spreads, with consensus being low end chance southwestern
parts of the forecast area to a slight chance northeast. Where
the front stalls ultimately will be the deciding factor. As the
shortwave moves south of the coast, guidance is advertising the
development of an upper low on the stalled boundary, with the GFS
advertising Wednesday night with the beginning of a westward
movement, the ECMWF in the Long Term.

Looking at temps, drier air that has moved over the area behind
the front will allow lows Monday night to drop to around to a bit
below seasonal. Tuesday through Wednesday night, the shortwave
energy moving over the Southeast, pushes a ridge that has built
east a bit over the northwestern Gulf from an upper high centered
over western Mexico. The loss of weak subsidence will help to
keep lows around seasonal.

/16

.LONG TERM /Thursday Through Sunday/...The GFS takes the weakly
organized system westward, ultimately leaving a weakly organized
system over the southwestern Gulf. The ECMWF is slower to
organize and begin to move west the system over the northern
Gulf, but by Sunday evening, it also is advertising a weakly
organized system near the Bay of Campeche. With the westward
movement, the south end of the East Coast upper trough gets
pulled west over the north-central Gulf coast, but with the axis
remaining east of the forecast area, an unfavorable position of
precip enhancement for the forecast area results. As the system
moves off to the west, a surface ridge builds back west over the
northern Gulf, with flow off the Gulf ultimately starting the
process of moisture return over the forecast area. Temps close to
seasonal are being advertised, along with a return of a seasonal
chance of rain by the weekend.

/16

&&

.MARINE...A moderate southwesterly flow will persist over the marine
area this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front.
Offshore flow then returns tonight into Monday following the passage
of the front. An offshore flow at night and early in the morning and
southwest flow during the day then generally prevails Tuesday
through Thursday as a weak pressure pattern will be in place over
the Gulf of Mexico. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  92  66  90  69  88  69  91 /  30   0   0  10  20  30  10  10
Pensacola   73  91  70  87  72  88  71  89 /  30  10   0  10  10  30  10  10
Destin      75  89  73  87  74  86  73  87 /  30  10   0   0  10  30  10  20
Evergreen   68  89  62  89  66  89  66  92 /  30   0   0   0  10  20  10  10
Waynesboro  68  90  63  88  66  89  66  92 /  20   0   0  10  10  30   0  10
Camden      68  87  62  87  65  88  67  91 /  30   0   0   0  10  20   0  10
Crestview   71  93  61  91  66  89  66  92 /  30  10   0   0  10  30  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
447 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-GMZ633-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041000-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Perdido Bay-Wayne-Perry-Greene-
Stone-George-
447 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida, southeast Mississippi and the
coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong wind gusts, locally heavy rain and frequent lightning will be
possible with any strong storms this afternoon and evening.

Afternoon head indices will reach 100 to 105 degrees this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

GMZ630>632-634>636-650-655-670-675-041000-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
447 AM CDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Winds, waves and seas may be locally higher in and near any marine
storms today. Frequent lightning will also pose a threat at times as
well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

ALZ051-053-032145-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
402 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CHOCTAW
AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Lisman, or 7
miles north of Butler, moving south at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Pennington, Gilbertown and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3228 8802 3226 8801 3217 8801 3215 8802
      3214 8804 3211 8805 3209 8804 3206 8807
      3207 8810 3205 8812 3202 8812 3199 8810
      3201 8809 3199 8807 3199 8803 3187 8804
      3184 8847 3228 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 356DEG 19KT 3220 8823

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
453 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

ALZ053>055-032245-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-
453 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 452 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northwest
of Thomasville, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8735 3160 8755 3194 8795 3199 8790
      3199 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 309DEG 25KT 3196 8782

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
511 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

ALZ053>055-032300-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-
511 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES
UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located near Thomasville,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville, Grove Hill, Whatley and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8770 3181 8736 3153 8770 3195 8808
      3196 8807 3198 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 312DEG 21KT 3187 8777

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
538 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

ALZ057-058-032330-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
538 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHEASTERN BUTLER AND CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located over Lowndes
County Airport, or over Fort Deposit, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Luverne, Rutledge and Petrey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3157 8638 3195 8682 3196 8681 3196 8641
      3198 8641 3185 8618 3179 8620 3179 8615
      3178 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 308DEG 26KT 3197 8660

DJ/17