River Flood Warning 35, NWS Mobile, AL

867 
WGUS84 KMOB 121449
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
849 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-131449-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181114T0818Z-181116T2100Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181114T0818Z.181114T1800Z.181116T1500Z.NO/
849 AM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From early Wednesday morning until Friday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Monday the stage was 5.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to 
  rise near 9.4 feet by Wednesday early afternoon. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas
* At 8.5 feet... Water in yeards on Sowel Road
* At 10 feet...Some flooding of trailers north of the Okaloosa Correctional 
  Institue. Water surrounds home on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

656 
WGUS84 KMOB 130224
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
824 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-140225-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181114T0300Z-181117T2000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181114T0300Z.181115T0000Z.181117T1400Z.NO/
824 PM CST Mon Nov 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow late evening until Saturday afternoon.
* At 7 PM Monday the stage was 6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 9.7 feet by Wednesday evening. The river will fall below flood stage
  by Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas
* At 8.5 feet... Water in yeards on Sowel Road
* At 10 feet...Some flooding of trailers north of the Okaloosa Correctional 
  Institue. Water surrounds home on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

972 
WGUS84 KMOB 131641
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1041 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-141641-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181114T0300Z-181117T2000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181114T0300Z.181115T0000Z.181117T1400Z.NO/
1041 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tonight until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 6.8 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise near 9.7 
  feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas
* At 8.5 feet... Water in yeards on Sowel Road
* At 10 feet...Some flooding of trailers north of the Okaloosa Correctional 
  Institue. Water surrounds home on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

758 
WGUS84 KMOB 140048
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
648 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-150048-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181114T1600Z-181118T0000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181114T1600Z.181115T1800Z.181117T1800Z.NO/
648 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow late morning until Saturday evening.
* At 6 PM Tuesday the stage was 7.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 8.9 feet by Thursday afternoon. The river will fall below flood
  stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 feet...Minor flooding of low lying areas
* At 8.5 feet...Water in yards on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

776 
WGUS84 KMOB 141506
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
906 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-151505-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181115T1200Z-181117T2000Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181115T1200Z.181116T1200Z.181117T1400Z.NO/
906 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow morning until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Wednesday the stage was 7.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 8.5 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 8.5 feet...Water in yards on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

762 
WGUS84 KMOB 150229
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
829 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-160228-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0035.181115T1200Z-181117T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.181115T1200Z.181116T1200Z.181117T1200Z.NO/
829 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow morning until Saturday afternoon.
* At 7 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 8.5 feet by Friday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 8.5 feet...Water in yards on Sowel Road.

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

671 
WGUS84 KMOB 151615
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1015 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Florida...
 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

FLC091-151645-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0035.000000T0000Z-181117T1800Z/
/CRVF1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CST Thu Nov 15 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Shoal River Near Crestview
* At 9 AM Thursday the stage was 7.6 feet. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
543 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...VFR conditions through about 12/03z followed by
MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities through 12.12z. Lower cigs
and visibilities mostly in low stratus, light fog and rain moving
in from the west this evening and overnight, Winds will be
northeast at 5 to 10 knots today becoming northeast to east at 8
to 13 knots this evening and overnight. 32/ee

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...A broad mid to upper trof
now mostly over the western conus will begin to deepen today in
response to another vigorous short wave diving south over the
central and lower Rockies then tracking eastward on the base of
the trof reaching the lower plains states by early Mon morning. To
the east a developing surface to h85 low develops over the
western Gulf and much of Texas ahead of the main upper system
progged to shift east northeast towards the mid to lower Ms river
valley through late Mon. With this pattern expect increasing
clouds moving in from the west today and tonight with widespread
rain developing ahead of the low center initially from widespread
layer lift on the back side of a departing low level ridge of high
pressure to the east and northeast. Light rain will begin
spreading east across much of inland southeast Ms and western
parts of southwest AL by this afternoon, moving further eastward
over remaining areas of the forecast area this evening, followed
by widespread moderate to heavy rain over most locations of the
forecast area late tonight through sunrise Mon morning. The best
coverage of the heavier precip late tonight and early Mon will be
generally west of a line stretching from Andalusia AL to Pensacola
FL by 6 am CST Mon morning. Some low stratus and patchy fog will
also be possible by early Mon morning.

With unseasonably cool air still trapped below 5kft through tonight
surface temps will continue to be well below seasonal norms through
tonight. Highs today will range from the mid to upper 50s over most
of the western half of the forecast area and the lower to middle 60s
to the east and along the coast. Lows tonight will range from the
upper 40s well to the north and the lower to middle 50s further
southward generally to the I-10 corridor and the upper 50s to lower
60s along the coast. 32/ee

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...A deeply moist
southwest flow pattern aloft will develop across the central Gulf
Coast region Monday and Monday night well in advance of an
amplifying mid to upper level trough over the Plains states. An
area of surface low pressure will develop over the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico early Monday morning and will quickly lift
northeastward toward southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama
by early Monday evening in response to a shortwave trough lifting
northeastward across this same region. Short range model guidance
is in good agreement that widespread rain showers will develop
across our forecast area through the day Monday as large scale
ascent overspreads the area in the diffluent mid to upper flow
ahead of the upper trough axis. A warm front will likely lift
northward across the western Florida panhandle and into south
central Alabama ahead of the approaching surface low late Monday
morning into Monday afternoon. The strongest low level jet on the
order of 40-50 knots will likely be in place along the boundary
through midday Monday before the stronger low level jet dynamics
quickly lift northeast into northeast Alabama and northern Georgia
through early Monday evening.

The primary impact from this pattern will be the potential for
heavy rainfall across our entire area through Monday evening.
Widespread light to moderate rain should continue into Monday
night, but there will be potential for an additional round of
heavier rain to lift northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico into
the western Florida panhandle and south central Alabama late
Monday night into Tuesday morning courtesy of a secondary
shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow. The latest
forecast continues to advertise widespread 2 to 4 inches of rain
across the area, with localized amounts over 5 inches possible.
Will wait to take a closer look at the higher resolution model
data arriving later today to try to get a better pinpoint on the
most favored locations for heavier rainfall, but a Flash Flood
Watch may be considered for portions of our area for the Monday
through early Tuesday time frame later today or tonight. For now
we will continue to advertise the Limited flooding risk in our
local graphics and Hazardous Weather Outlook.

There will also be a low end severe weather threat along southern/
coastal portions of the forecast area from mid to late Monday
morning through perhaps mid to late Monday afternoon as a zone of
weak instability (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG) moves inland over these
areas along and south of the warm front and coincides with the
stronger jet dynamics during this period of time. A few of the
cells along the boundary and in the warm sector may be capable of
producing localized wind damage and possibly a tornado. The
latest Day 2 outlook from SPC keeps the Marginal severe risk in
place over our southern CWA Monday, which looks reasonable.

The cold front will pass across our region Monday night, but a
zone of enhanced deep layer moisture and lift remains in place
across our forecast area in the cold sector behind the boundary
Tuesday, keeping a good chance of rain in place through the day.
Rain chances should gradually decrease into Tuesday evening/night
as the moisture axis slowly makes eastward progress. Will keep
low POPs in place over the central and eastern zones for Tuesday
night. /21

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...Medium range guidance is
in agreement that an upper level low will pinch somewhere in the
vicinity of the ArkLaTex Tuesday night, but differ on when this
feature will finally be pulled northeastward toward the Tennessee
and Ohio Valley region. The ECMWF guidance is noticeably slower
with the ejection of the upper low/trough axis, and thereby keeps
the moist southwest flow aloft and associated continued rain
chances in place over our area through Wednesday night. Given that
this trend was also noticed last night, have opted to keep a
slight chance of rain in the forecast Wednesday and Wednesday
night. The increased cloud cover and slower movement of the trough
would mean slightly warmer overnight low temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday nights, meaning a freeze would be less likely. We will
still keep lows in the 30s both nights over the interior, but did
raise them slightly from the previous forecast. Much below normal
daytime highs will persist Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures
should slowly moderate into the weekend, but still remain below
normal. Dry weather is currently anticipated Thursday through
Saturday. /21

MARINE...A moderate to strong northeast wind flow will diminish
later today and this evening as a strong surface ridge of high
pressure to the north shifts east to the mid Atlantic coast. A
moderate to strong easterly flow will redevelop late tonight and
continue through Monday ahead of a developing surface low and strong
cold front that is expected to move south over the northern Gulf Mon
night into early Tue. Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms
will develop ahead of the low center and cold front beginning this
evening continuing through Wed in the wake of the front that moves
across the marine area early Tue morning. A strong offshore flow is
expected in the wake of the front Tue through Wed with seas building
to 6 to 8 feet well offshore by Tue evening continuing through early
Wed morning. Winds and seas will slowly subside Wed through Thu.
Small craft advisories will likely be required ahead and in the wake
of the cold front Mon through Wed night. 32/ee

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
526 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121130-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
526 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The next storm system will bring widespread rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to the region early Monday through early Tuesday
morning. Heavy rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally
higher totals will be possible across the area Monday into Monday
night. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding or
flash flooding. A few strong to severe storms may develop south of
a Wiggins Mississippi to Andalusia Alabama line Monday into
Monday evening.

Very cold air flows into the area next week which could bring the
first freeze of the season to interior areas Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Saturday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-121130-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
526 AM CST Sun Nov 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected early today,
redeveloping late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Hazardous conditions for small craft can be expected Monday
through Wednesday night.