River Flood Warning 23, NWS Mobile, AL

906 
WGUS84 KMOB 150641
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
141 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-160641-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.180416T0600Z-180416T1800Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T0600Z.180416T0600Z.180416T1200Z.NO/
141 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From after midnight tomorrow until Monday afternoon.
* At 1AM Sunday the stage was 17.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise near 22 feet by after midnight tomorrow with further rises possible 
  therafter.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

712 
WGUS84 KMOB 151513
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1013 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-161200-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.180416T0600Z-180416T1200Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T0600Z.180416T0600Z.180416T0600Z.NO/
1013 AM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Monday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From after midnight tomorrow until Monday morning.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 19.4 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to rise near 22 feet by after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below 
flood stage by Monday morning.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

715 
WGUS84 KMOB 160104
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
804 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-170104-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.180419T1200Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180419T1200Z.180419T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
804 PM CDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 7PM Sunday the stage was 20.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday morning. Additional rises are 
  possible thereafter.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

562 
WGUS84 KMOB 161436
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
936 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-171435-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.180416T2100Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2100Z.180419T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
936 AM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* From late this afternoon until further notice.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 21.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this afternoon and continue to rise near 23 feet by early Thursday morning.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

379 
WGUS84 KMOB 170043
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-180042-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180422T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180419T0600Z.180421T1800Z.NO/
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Saturday evening.
* At 7PM Monday the stage was 22.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23 feet by early Thursday morning. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by Saturday early afternoon.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

727 
WGUS84 KMOB 171537
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1037 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-181536-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180419T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1037 AM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until further notice.
* At 10 AM Tuesday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23 feet by Thursday morning then 
  begin falling.
* At 14 feet...Roads to Cedar Creek Estates are impassable.
* At 18.5 feet...Water covers roads at Smith's Fish Camp in Southern George County.
* At 20 feet...Water covers the main road at Plum Bluff in southern George County.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

089 
WGUS84 KMOB 180150
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
850 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-190149-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180423T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180419T1200Z.180422T1800Z.NO/
850 PM CDT Tue Apr 17 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Sunday evening.
* At 8 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23 feet by Thursday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday early afternoon.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

483 
WGUS84 KMOB 181552
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1052 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-191551-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180420T1800Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T1200Z.NO/
1052 AM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Wednesday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to crest near 22.4 feet this afternoon. The river 
  will begin to fall on Thursday morning and will fall below flood stage by
  Friday morning.
* At 14 feet...Roads to Cedar Creek Estates are impassable.
* At 18.5 feet...Water covers roads at Smith's Fish Camp in Southern George County.
* At 20 feet...Water covers the main road at Plum Bluff in southern George County.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

487 
WGUS84 KMOB 190219
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
919 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-200219-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180420T1200Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T0600Z.NO/
919 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Friday morning.
* At 8 PM Wednesday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

330 
WGUS84 KMOB 191531
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1031 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-201530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180420T1800Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T1200Z.NO/
1031 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 10AM Thursday the stage was 22.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow morning.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

258 
WGUS84 KMOB 200219
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
919 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Mississippi...
 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

MSC039-041-059-201800-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180420T1800Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T1200Z.NO/
919 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 8 PM Thursday the stage was 22.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to slowly fall to below flood stage by tomorrow 
  morning.
* At 14 feet...Roads to Cedar Creek Estates are impassable.
* At 18.5 feet...Water covers roads at Smith's Fish Camp in Southern George County.
* At 20 feet...Water covers the main road at Plum Bluff in southern George County.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

832 
WGUS84 KMOB 201548
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
Mississippi...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
  Pascagoula At Merrill affecting George...Greene and Jackson Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0018.000000T0000Z-180422T1800Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180416T1027Z.180420T0100Z.180422T1200Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Sunday afternoon...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until Sunday afternoon.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 33.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* At 30.0 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0019.000000T0000Z-180423T0717Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180416T1725Z.180420T0800Z.180423T0117Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Sunday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until late Sunday night.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 26.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Sunday evening.
* At 24.0 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

MSC039-041-111-210045-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0020.000000T0000Z-180421T0045Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.180415T1710Z.180418T0500Z.180420T1845Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until this evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 18.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 18.0 feet...Considerable flooding of agricultural and lowlands near the 
  river.

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-211547-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-180422T0120Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.180415T0521Z.180418T1245Z.180421T1920Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Saturday evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 22.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.
* At 22.0 feet...Flooding of lowlands continues and some roads in low lying 
  areas become cut off by high water.

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

MSC039-041-059-210000-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0023.000000T0000Z-180421T0000Z/
/MRRM6.1.ER.180416T2025Z.180418T1115Z.180420T1800Z.NO/
1048 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Pascagoula At Merrill
* until this evening.
* At 10AM Friday the stage was 22.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by this afternoon.
* At 23.5 feet...Water is under homes in Plum Bluff Estates

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8877 3098 8872 3082 8871 3074 8864
 3074 8868 3082 8879                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
810 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...Tornado Watch 49 is no longer in effect for George and
Greene counties of interior SE MS and Washington Co of SW Alabama.
Zone update sent.

An update on Clarke County. Confluent bands of very heavy to
excessive rainfall came together late this afternoon and evening in
the deep layer mean flow ahead of the main line to produce a
general 4-8" of rain (very impressive 250-850 hPa differential
divergence and boundary layer moisture flux convergence in the
presence of nearly 1.9" PWAT air past few hours). We have received
numerous reports of flooding in some of the larger towns there
per recent with Clarke County Emergency Management past hour. Some
of the deepest convection now beginning to move east of Clarke
County as cold pool strengthens to west. Despite this, trailing
stratiform region of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will
continue to affect the county for next 2-3 hours.

We are int he process of making adjustments to severe weather
threat timing graphics. / 23 JMM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

UPDATE...Quick mesocale update. Mesolow near Mobile, AL is
zipping NNE along frontal boundary approaching from the west and
things are finally moving. Ingredients wise, a new Tornado Watch
has been issued through 2 AM CDT east of the approaching of the
deep convective line. During the past hour, we have finally seen
some stronger mesocyclones to our W with EffSigTor values of 3-4
in the ambient environment (being driven primarily by observed low
LCLs, Eff SrHEL values of 300-400 m^2/s^2, and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/kg. This 'sweet spot' will continue along and S of
Highway 84 to the coast through 2 Am CDT as the approaching line
gains speed and eastward momentum.

So, what to expect? Short-term forecast remains on track with
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, both ahead of and embedded
within the line, as it begins to accelerate. The highest current
threat is excessive rainfall that will produce flash flooding -
even behind the line. That extensive trailing stratiform region
behind the line could be the final kick in the teeth that sends
some flood prone areas (or areas otherwise that have had
borderline excessive rainfall today) over the edge. We are now
beginning to receive reports of road closures due to flooding. We
are in the process of converting Flash Flood Warnings to Areal
Flood Warnings.

Each hour, will likely be updating the forecast to progressively
clear Tornado Watch 49 from west to east. /23 JMM

MARINE...Added nearshore NW FL waters to Tornado Watch 49 through
2 AM CDT. Also had to make a recent correction to Marine Zone
Package. That correction was just sent. Special Marine Warnings
are now in effect for the western portion of our forecast area
(just issued). / 23 JMM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 632 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Impacts to arrivals and departures will be an
eastward moving line of convection this evening, bringing strong
wind gusts potentially upwards of around 45 kts, reduced cigs to
IFR/LIFR categories and vsby to LIFR/VLIFR categories in +TSRA
thru 15.03Z for MOB/BFM and a bit later for PNS. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...Vigorous upper level storm
system/highly amplified trof axis over the central US, pivots
eastward and begins to take on a negative tilt tonight over the
Lower MS River Valley before lifting out to the northeast on
Sunday. East of the deep layer trof axis, embedded in a zone of
upper level diffluence, an organized convective line from northern
AL to well south of the central Louisiana coast was moving little
and is raising concerns for initial flash flooding over the
northwest zones where the line is situated. Latest storm total
precipitation amounts extending from Choctaw Co. AL, southwest to
George Co. in MS indicates some 3 to 5 inches of rain has already
fallen today. Given the slow motion of the line in the very near
term in the high resolution models and given the rains that have
already fallen, it appears the significant threat of flooding is
more focused over the northwest zones where we could see
potentially another 3 to 5 inches of rain. Considering this, not
out of the question to see some areas see storm totals over 10
inches. Over these areas, where the colder pool has set up, it
appears the severe weather threat will be lessening. The severe
weather threat transitions more eastward over the heart of the
forecast area into the evening as next piece of energy at the base
of the long wave trof over TX ejects northeast and brings an
enhancement in ascent within an area of sufficient instability and
pronounced shear. Low level H850 south to southwest winds from 40
to 50 kts atop backed surface flow results in curved hodographs
this evening and 0-1 KM storm relative helicity values upwards of
300 to 400 m2/s2. Considering these parameters, there remains a
sufficient threat of significant severe storms with potential of
damaging winds in excess of 70 mph in any bowing line segments and
tornadoes in any discreet supercells that form out ahead of the
main line. Heading into the evening as the upper support
approaches, the line to the west will likely begin to accelerate.
Even so, an elevated risk of flooding rains is quite possible
along and east of I-65, tapering off by around or shortly after
midnight. Be prepared to move to a safe place quickly in the case
warnings are issued for your area tonight.

As cold front makes passage overnight, the risk of severe weather
ends in its wake. A small chance of lingering showers possible
over the eastern zones Sunday morning before ending. Turning
cooler in the wake of the front. Sunday's highs to trend well
below normal.

High risk of potentially deadly rip currents and high surf
continues into the beaches. /10

SHORT TERM /Sunday night Through Tuesday night/...High pressure
builds eastward over the Gulf coast the first half of the upcoming
week bringing rain-free conditions. Sunday and Monday night lows
well below climatology. Highs below normal on Monday and Tuesday.
/10

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...High pressure becomes
positioned to the east of the local area mid week with a weak
front bringing next small chance of showers over the interior
Wednesday night. High pressure builds in from the north late in
the week. Daily highs close to seasonal during the medium range.
/10

MARINE...Southerly winds and seas will build through this evening
ahead of a developing area of low pressure and a strong cold front
approaching from the west. Frequent gusts to gale force likely over
the open Gulf waters through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead and along the front tonight with a few storms becoming
strong to severe. A strong west to northwest wind flow is expected
in the wake of the front Sunday morning through Sunday night. /10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>057-059-
     261>266.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>204.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ631-632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-160000-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.
   High Surf Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

ALZ052>057-059-261>264-FLZ201-203-MSZ076-078-079-160000-
Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Escambia-
Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-
Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Greene-Stone-George-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

ALZ051-MSZ067-075-160000-
Choctaw-Wayne-Perry-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

ALZ058-060-FLZ205-160000-
Crenshaw-Covington-Okaloosa Inland-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of storms over interior southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama is forecast to move east tonight and bring an
enhanced risk of severe weather with the potential of damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

FLZ206-160000-
Okaloosa Coastal-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

A line of storms over interior southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama is forecast to move east tonight and bring an
enhanced risk of severe weather with the potential of damaging winds
in excess of 60 mph and a few tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   High Surf Advisory.
   High Rip Current Risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through tonight.

GMZ630-160000-
Northern Mobile Bay-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT MONDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ650-160000-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ655-670-675-160000-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM CDT
MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ635-636-160000-
Western Choctawhatchee Bay-Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ633-634-160000-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

GMZ631-632-160000-
Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
612 PM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT MONDAY...
...TORNADO WATCH 48 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Small Craft Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see
Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the
following hazards.

   Small Craft Advisory.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
741 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HEAVY RAIN       8 NE Lucedale           31.01N 88.49W
04/14/2018  M7.35 INCH       GREENE             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            7.35 INCHES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST GREENE
            COUNTY

&&

RROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
755 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Fulton                  31.79N 87.73W
04/14/2018                   Clarke             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTED SEVERAL LOACTIONS IN FULTON WITH WATER
            OVER THE ROAD. PARTS OF HWY 43 CLOSED.

0751 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Grove Hill              31.71N 87.78W
04/14/2018                   Clarke             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTED SEVERAL AREAS IN TOWN WITH WATER OVER
            THE ROAD. WATER ENTERING A HOUSE ON CLAY STREET. 7.5
            INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED SINCE 3 PM.

&&

DBLOUNT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
757 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ053>055-150130-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-
757 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...NORTH
CENTRAL MONROE...NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES
UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 757 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 8 miles east of
Fulton, or 12 miles east of Grove Hill, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Camden, Pine Hill and Yellow Bluff.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for south central
and southwestern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3207 8719 3207 8718 3164 8753 3172 8774
      3199 8768 3199 8767 3200 8766 3200 8763
      3201 8762 3213 8762 3213 8752 3217 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 207DEG 38KT 3177 8759

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
804 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     FLASH FLOOD      Lucedale                30.93N 88.59W
04/14/2018                   George             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTED HWY 198 AT THE RAILROAD OVERPASS IS
            IMPASSIBLE DUE TO WATER. BILLY KNIGHT RD ALSO HAS WATER
            OVER THE ROAD.

&&

DBLOUNT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
816 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW Thomasville       31.87N 87.76W
04/14/2018                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            COUNTY EM REPORTED WATER OVER DUMMY LINE ROAD.

&&

DBLOUNT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
831 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

ALZ262-264-266-150230-
Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-Baldwin Inland AL-
831 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2018

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 831 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Daphne to 3 miles southwest of Fort Morgan, and
moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Daphne, Fairhope, Gulf Shores, Foley, Robertsdale, Point Clear,
Loxley, Magnolia Springs, Stapleton, Bon Secour, Summerdale,
Silverhill and Fort Morgan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and northwestern Florida.

LAT...LON 3022 8804 3080 8788 3082 8759 3079 8756
      3024 8762 3022 8790
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 260DEG 17KT 3057 8794 3019 8805