River Flood Warning 15, NWS Mobile, AL

944 
WGUS84 KMOB 101705
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
1105 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-111704-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180315T0225Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180315T0225Z.180315T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1105 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Wednesday before midnight until further notice.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 23.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday before midnight and continue to rise near 29.9 feet by Thursday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 30 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-111704-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180315T1000Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180315T1000Z.180315T1100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1105 AM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 10 AM Saturday the stage was 20.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday morning.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

556 
WGUS84 KMOB 110114
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
714 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-120113-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T2300Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T2300Z.180315T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
714 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Wednesday evening until further notice.
* At 6PM Saturday the stage was 22.2 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday evening and continue to rise 
  near 30.9 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 30 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-120113-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180315T0845Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180315T0845Z.180315T2300Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
714 PM CST Sat Mar 10 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 7PM Saturday the stage was 19.7 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue to rise 
  near 25 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

120 
WGUS84 KMOB 111443
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
943 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-121443-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T2308Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T2308Z.180316T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
943 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Wednesday evening until further notice.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 20.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday evening and continue to rise 
  near 30.6 feet by Friday morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to higher ground. 
  Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-121443-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180315T0325Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180315T0325Z.180316T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
943 AM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From Wednesday before midnight until further notice.
* At 9 AM Sunday the stage was 18.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday before midnight and continue 
  to rise near 25.3 feet by Friday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in low 
  lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.
&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

895 
WGUS84 KMOB 112319
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
619 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-122319-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180315T0200Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180315T0200Z.180316T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
619 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From Wednesday before midnight until further notice.
* At 5 PM Sunday the stage was 20.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Wednesday before midnight and continue 
  to rise near 30.5 feet by Friday morning.
* At 30 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

177 
WGUS84 KMOB 121450
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
950 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-131449-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T0200Z-180317T0100Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T0200Z.180315T0600Z.180316T1900Z.NO/
950 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow late evening until Friday evening.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 23.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 29.9 feet by early Thursday morning.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to higher ground. 
  Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.
  
&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-131449-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180314T0430Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180314T0430Z.180316T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until further notice for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tomorrow late evening until further notice.
* At 9 AM Monday the stage was 19.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 25 feet by Thursday evening.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in low 
  lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

526 
WGUS84 KMOB 130136
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
836 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-140136-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T0600Z-180317T0400Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T0600Z.180315T0600Z.180316T2200Z.NO/
836 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From early Wednesday morning until Friday evening.
* At 7 PM Monday the stage was 25 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to rise near 29.8 feet by early Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* At 30 feet...Pastureland along the river will remain flooded until flood 
  waters subside. 

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-140136-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180314T0600Z-180318T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180314T0600Z.180315T1800Z.180317T1800Z.NO/
836 PM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday evening...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From early Wednesday morning until Saturday evening.
* At 8 PM Monday the stage was 20.3 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and continue to rise near 24.9 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river will fall below   
flood stage by Saturday evening.
* At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands will continue until
  the river falls below 24 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

982 
WGUS84 KMOB 131436
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
936 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following river in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-141435-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T1800Z-180316T1800Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T1800Z.180315T1200Z.180316T1200Z.NO/
936 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow early afternoon until Friday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Tuesday the stage was 26.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 29.4 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage
  Friday morning.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-141435-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180314T1017Z-180317T1942Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180314T1017Z.180316T0000Z.180317T1342Z.NO/
936 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From early tomorrow until Saturday afternoon.
* At 8 AM Tuesday the stage was 21.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  24.8 feet by Thursday evening. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday afternoon.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in low 
  lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

986 
WGUS84 KMOB 140103
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
803 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-150103-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180314T2100Z-180316T0900Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180314T2100Z.180315T1200Z.180316T0300Z.NO/
803 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow afternoon until late Thursday night.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was 27.5 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 29.3 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-150103-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180314T2136Z-180317T0824Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180314T2136Z.180315T1800Z.180317T0224Z.NO/
803 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning continues 
for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tomorrow afternoon until late Friday night.
* At 7 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.1 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 24.5 feet by Thursday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by early Saturday morning.
* At 25 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands will continue until
  the river falls below 24 feet.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

096 
WGUS84 KMOB 141434
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
934 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-151433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0015.180315T1200Z-180316T0600Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.180315T1200Z.180315T1800Z.180316T0000Z.NO/
934 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow morning until late Thursday night.
* At 8 AM Wednesday the stage was 27.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 29.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by tomorrow evening.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-151433-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0016.180315T1500Z-180316T2100Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.180315T1500Z.180316T0600Z.180316T1500Z.NO/
934 AM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tomorrow late morning until Friday afternoon.
* At 9 AM Wednesday the stage was 22.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and continue to 
  rise near 24.2 feet by early Friday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Friday afternoon.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

499 
WGUS84 KMOB 150106
FLSMOB
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mobile, AL
806 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and 
  Washington Counties.
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties.

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC023-025-129-150136-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0015.000000T0000Z-180316T0600Z/
/CLDA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* until late Thursday night.
* At 7PM Wednesday the stage was 28.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* At 29 feet...Pastureland becomes flooded. Livestock need to be moved to 
  higher ground. Old Ferry Road near the river begins to flood.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-150136-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180316T2100Z/
/LRYA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
806 PM CDT Wed Mar 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 7PM Wednesday the stage was 22.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* At 24 feet...Flooding of low lying farm and pasturelands begins. Cattle in 
  low lying areas need to be moved to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
519 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land areas and aviation
discussion below.

&&

.UPDATE...Will be updating package to reflect the issuance of an
RP.S due to a high risk of dangerous rip currents Saturday night
into Sunday. Updates out shortly.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...Through tonight, with onshore flow having returned
to the forecast area, moisture levels are on the increase. Fog is
expected to return to TAF sites tonight, but am not anticipating
VISBYs dropping below MVFR levels. Saturday will see an increase
in SHRA, then TSRA coverage as a front approaches the area, and is
expected to cross area TAF sites Saturday night.

/16

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 414 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...Transition of weather pattern
has begun, with surface high pressure axis shifting east of the area
with a developing storm system well to the west of the area over the
southern plains states. Aloft, slightly cyclonic 500 mb flow over
the region tonight and Saturday, and both ECMWF and GFS indicating
a series of impulses moving east in the upper flow late tonight
through Saturday, primarily over the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, both
solutions develop a large area of showers and storms well to the
south of the forecast area by late tonight which moves east during
the day on Saturday. With this, moisture influx into the forecast
area from the south on Saturday will be somewhat cut off, so we
have backed off on the overall rain chances for the daytime period
on Saturday from previous forecast, although some scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms could be possible over the
western half of the forecast area by very late Saturday afternoon.
There is a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms in
SPC's Day 2 Outlook, but if that occurs (which appears more
uncertain now than earlier), it is discussed in the short term
discussion, below. Warmer tonight with lows in the mid to upper
40s inland and low to mid 50s close to the coast. Highs on
Saturday rebounding into the low to mid 70s across the entire
forecast area. 12/DS

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...To begin the
short term period, a low amplitude upper level flow pattern is
progged to exist over the southern US. A more significant upper
level impulse/associated concentrated height falls over the
central Plains drops into the Mid Mississippi River Valley by
Sunday afternoon. Height falls expand east and south Sunday night
into Monday where a more amplified upper trof sets up from the
Appalachians, southwest across the Gulf coast. At the surface, A
quasi-stationary frontal zone looks to be draped east to west from
the southeast US to the Red River Valley of TX/OK and will be the
initial source of forced ascent and higher chances of wet weather
closer to the boundary. As upper height falls dig southeast, a
wave of surface frontal low pressure forms over the Mid-South
Saturday night, moving slowly east northeast over central AL
Sunday. Southeast of the developing low, a moist warm sector
begins to evolve. As far as storms, The question forecasters are
faced with is what happens with the potential east to west wall
of convection that forms over the central Gulf due to the eastward
passage of a southern stream upper level impulse there. This
would act to limit the northward transport of deeper moisture
while also using up instability. This is becoming evident in the
instability fields which show minimal mean layer CAPE (0-1KM)
overnight Saturday night. Despite this, there is some potential
for a modest low level jet to be in place resulting in some
veering/wind shear as the environment feels the approach of mid
level impulse moving southeast out of the central Plains. Thus
forecasters cannot discount the potential of few severe storms,
which perhaps may contain a brief tornado. Given the overall lack
of instability, today's update of the Day 2 outlook from the
Storm Prediction Center, backs off on the slight risk of severe
storms which has been pushed northwest of the area, leaving only a
marginal risk in its place for much of the area Saturday night.
Some potential of storms continues through late Sunday morning as
approaching front from the northwest encounters a narrow zone of
better instability. Frontal passage occurs Sunday afternoon and
brings a lowering in rain chances. Cooler Sunday night. Late
Sunday and especially into Monday could see some gusty northerly
winds as pressure difference tightens between high pressure
building east out of the Plains and a deepening surface low
lifting northeast off the Mid-Atlantic coast. /10

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...A dry deep layer northwest
flow looks to prevail through much of next week, resulting in
rain-free weather. Daytime highs well below normal thru Wednesday
then moderating the latter half of the week. Overnight lows well
below climatology thru the period. /10

MARINE...Flow has shifted to mostly south and southeast across the
marine area late this afternoon, and will remain onshore while
gradually increasing through late Saturday in response to a cold
front approaching the area from the west. The front will move across
the marine area late Sunday and into Sunday night, with a strong
offshore flow developing in its wake and persisting into the early
part of next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
out over the Gulf well ahead of the front on Saturday, and then
continue to be a possibility over the marine area, but ending with
the frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required
for portions of the marine area late this weekend into early next
week, primarily in association with the offshore flow in the wake of
the front. 12/DS

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday evening through Sunday
     evening for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
430 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102230-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
430 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Alabama...southwest Alabama...northwest Florida and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Rain chances will be increasing late Saturday through much of
Sunday as showers and thunderstorms associated with a frontal
system will be building across the area from the west. There is a
minimal chance that a few of the storms could be strong to severe,
especially near the coast, late Saturday night into early Sunday
morning, but that threat appears to be lessening at this time. We
will continue to monitor for any changes.

Showers and storms could produce heavy rainfall and localized
flooding of urban and low lying areas late Saturday night into
Sunday morning, especially across interior portions of southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama, but this threat has also
somewhat diminished as the more persistent and heavier rainfall
now appears to be north of our area. Again, we will also continue
to monitor this potential.

At least a moderate risk of rip currents will continue along area
beaches through early next week, with a high risk of rip currents
expected Saturday night into Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of SkyWarn Severe Storm Spotter networks is not
expected through Thursday.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-102230-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola
FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
430 PM CST Fri Mar 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the coastal
waters of Alabama and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Hazardous conditions for small craft will be likely late Saturday
through early next week as a strong offshore flow develops over
the marine area.