Alert archive / Florida / High Surf Advisories in 2018
High Surf Advisory 9, NWS Mobile, AL
NWS Mobile, AL issued this high surf advisory at Dec 7, 2018, 9:11 PM CST for Baldwin County, Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It took effect at Dec 8, 2018, 10:00 AM CST. It was in force for 20 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 7, 2018, 9:11 PM CST (03:11 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 8, 2018, 10:00 AM CST
- Expired
- Dec 9, 2018, 6:00 AM CST
- In force
- 20 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Mobile, AL
Counties Baldwin County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL
The radar
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 102 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 246 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1320 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 129 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 201 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
298 WHUS44 KMOB 080311 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 911 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-081200- /O.NEW.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.181208T1600Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.181208T0600Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 911 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a High Surf Advisory, which is in effect from 10 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday. * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 6 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected mid Saturday morning through Saturday night. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected.Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$ ALZ265-081200- /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.181208T0600Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 911 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * IMPACTS...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$
6 follow-up statements
824 WHUS44 KMOB 081010 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 410 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-081900- /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.181208T1600Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 410 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 6 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected mid Saturday morning through Saturday night. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected.Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$ ALZ265-081900- /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 410 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * IMPACTS...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$
091 WHUS44 KMOB 081613 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-090100- /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 6 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected through tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected.Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$ ALZ265-090100- /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 1013 AM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * IMPACTS...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$
648 WHUS44 KMOB 090035 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 635 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-091200- /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 635 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 7 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected through tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected.Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$ ALZ265-091200- /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 635 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * IMPACTS...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$
393 WHUS44 KMOB 090055 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 655 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ALZ266-090900- /O.NEW.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.181209T0055Z-181209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal- 655 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 3 AM CST Sunday. * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 7 feet. * COASTAL FLOODING...Inundation of 1 to 2 feet is expected across some vulnerable, flood prone areas around Mobile Bay. * Timing...Coastal flooding and high surf will occur through late tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. Minor coastal flooding will result in hazardous driving conditions on some low lying coastal roads in and around Mobile Bay. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore. && $$ ALZ265-090900- /O.NEW.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.181209T0055Z-181209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 655 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 3 AM CST Sunday. * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * COASTAL FLOODING...Inundation of 1 to 2 feet is expected across some vulnerable, flood prone areas around Mobile Bay. * Timing...Coastal flooding will occur through late tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Minor coastal flooding will result in hazardous driving conditions on some low lying coastal roads in and around Mobile Bay. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore. && $$ ALZ263-264-090900- /O.NEW.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.181209T0055Z-181209T0900Z/ Mobile Central-Baldwin Central- 655 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SUNDAY... The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a Coastal Flood Advisory, which is in effect until 3 AM CST Sunday. * COASTAL FLOODING...Inundation of 1 to 2 feet is expected across some vulnerable, flood prone areas around Mobile Bay. In particular, the US 90 Causeway over Mobile Bay will likely experience some minor flooding through late tonight as high tide approaches. * Timing...Coastal flooding and high surf will occur through late tonight. * Impacts...Minor coastal flooding will result in hazardous driving conditions on some low lying coastal roads in and around Mobile Bay. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore. && $$ FLZ202-204-206-090900- /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal- 655 PM CST Sat Dec 8 2018 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 7 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected through tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$
466 WHUS44 KMOB 090905 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 305 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ALZ266-091715- /O.EXP.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal- 305 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 7 feet. * Timing...High surf will occur through late tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. Minor coastal flooding will result in hazardous driving conditions on some low lying coastal roads in and around Mobile Bay. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$ ALZ265-091715- /O.EXP.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181209T0900Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 305 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * TIMING...The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$ ALZ263-264-091015- /O.EXP.KMOB.CF.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181209T0900Z/ Mobile Central-Baldwin Central- 305 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... $$ FLZ202-204-206-091715- /O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal- 305 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle, from Fort Morgan eastward to Destin. * SURF HEIGHTS...4 to 7 feet. * TIMING...High surf can be expected through tonight. The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and dangerous swimming conditions. && $$
213 WHUS44 KMOB 091213 CFWMOB Coastal Hazard Message National Weather Service Mobile AL 613 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ALZ266-FLZ202-204-206-092015- /O.EXP.KMOB.SU.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-181209T1200Z/ /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 613 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * TIMING...The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$ ALZ265-092015- /O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0031.000000T0000Z-181210T1200Z/ Mobile Coastal- 613 AM CST Sun Dec 9 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... * WHERE...Gulf beaches of Dauphin Island, Alabama. * TIMING...The high risk of rip currents will continue through Sunday night. * Impacts...The surf is dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. Some minor beach erosion is possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... There is a high risk of rip currents. Rip currents are life- threatening to anyone entering the surf. Swim near a lifeguard. If caught in a rip current remain calm. Don't fight the current. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this high surf advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high surf advisory went out at Dec 7, 5:21 PM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 7, 5:21 PM CST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
521 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018
.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z issuance...VFR conditions expected thru the night. High based
cigs to stream eastward over the deep south and vsby ok. The
passage of light rains from the high based cigs possible over the
interior zones, north of the terminals. No impacts to aircraft
ops. East to northeast winds to trend higher thru daybreak
Saturday with gusts up to around 20 knots. Increasing winds will
bring increased impacts early in the day, then increased rain
coverage follows. /10
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 405 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018/
NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday/...There are not a lot of changes
from the previous forecast thinking. The primary forecast challenges
continue to revolve around the upcoming heavy rain event and the
associated potential for flooding impacts across our region, as well
as on the potential for an isolated severe storm or two near the
immediate coast Saturday into Saturday night.
An upper level trough located near the vicinity of southwest Arizona
and northern Baja this afternoon is forecast to translate eastward
toward west Texas into Saturday morning, before lifting northeastward
toward the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley region through Saturday
night. Surface low pressure will develop over southeast Texas
tonight and track eastward, likely paralleling the immediate
northern Gulf Coast through Saturday night. Deep moisture ahead of a
shortwave trough translating over Lousiana and Mississippi will
spread into northwestern portions of our area tonight, and we will
carry a chance of rain over these zones, with the best chance mainly
focused northwest of I-65. Short range model guidance remains in
good agreement with bringing large scale ascent into our forecast
area ahead of the aforementioned approaching upper level trough and
surface low pressure system Saturday into Saturday night. The
potential for locally heavier rainfall will spread into southeast
Mississippi and interior southwest Alabama Saturday morning, where
likely to categorical POPs have been indicated between 6 AM and
noon. Short range and available high resolution guidance then
continues to indicate that heavy rain will spread across the
remainder of the forecast area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening, with potential QPF amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally
higher totals possible across much of the region. Some short range
and high resolution guidance continues to signal higher QPF amounts
impacting portions of southwest/south central Alabama and the
western Florida panhandle Saturday afternoon and evening, including
locations that received very heavy rainfall last weekend. Given the
saturated soils/antecedent conditions, we have opted to issue a
Flash Flood Watch for locations roughly south of a Mobile to
Andalusia line for Saturday afternoon and evening.
The severe weather potential otherwise continues to look very
limited/marginal, and mainly across locations along the immediate
coast where very weak instability may penetrate inland ahead of the
approaching low pressure system, coincident with strong low level
and deep layer shear. We will need to monitor for an isolated severe
storm capable of damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado along the
coast. A high risk of rip currents will exist along area Gulf
beaches from Friday night through Sunday night. High surf, and minor
coastal flooding will also be possible Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night.
Chances for heavier rain should diminish late Saturday evening. A
lingering chance of light rain continues Sunday on the base of the
upper trough. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated Sunday. /21
LONG TERM /Monday Through Friday/...In the wake of the frontal
passage, much drier northwesterly flow develops as an upper level
ridge builds into the region through mid week. Daytime highs will
only top out in the 50s as overnight low temperatures plummet into
the 30s. By Wednesday, temperatures begin to moderate as onshore
flow develops ahead of the next system. Another low pressure
system swings into the Mississippi Valley late in the week and
brings our next chance for showers Thursday afternoon through
Friday afternoon. 07/MB
MARINE...Easterly winds and seas continue to build through early
Saturday before turning southerly by Saturday afternoon ahead of a
surface low approaching from the west. Seas will build up to 7-9
feet well offshore over the weekend. Winds and seas will be higher
in and around any showers and thunderstorms this weekend. In the
wake of a frontal passage, a strong northwesterly flow develops
Sunday through early next week. Moderate onshore flow returns by
mid week. 07/MB
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for ALZ059-060-261>266.
High Rip Current Risk from midnight CST tonight through late
Sunday night for ALZ265-266.
FL...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
evening for FLZ201>206.
High Rip Current Risk from midnight CST tonight through late
Sunday night for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday
for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
&&
This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mobHazardous weather outlook, Dec 7, 4:27 PM CST, 4 hours 44 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mobile AL 427 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ALZ059-060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-082230- Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central- Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland- 427 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama, southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the following hazards. Flash Flood Watch. Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Many locations within the Flash Flood Watch remain saturated from recent heavy rains, so any additional rain combined with saturated soils will result in the potential for flash flooding (especially in urban and low lying areas). Minor river flooding is also possible across the region. Although flooding is the main threat for this event, there is the potential for a few strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat for any severe storms during this timeframe is damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ALZ051>058-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-082230- Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw- Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George- 427 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama, southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Nuisance flooding will be possible, especially in urban and low lying areas. Minor river flooding is also possible across the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-082230- Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal- Okaloosa Coastal- 427 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the following hazards. High Rip Current Risk. Flash Flood Watch. Periods of heavy rainfall will be possible on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts are possible. Many locations within the Flash Flood Watch remain saturated from recent heavy rains, so any additional rain combined with saturated soils will result in the potential for flash flooding (especially in urban and low lying areas). Minor river flooding is also possible across the region. Although flooding is the main threat for this event, there is the potential for a few strong to severe storms Saturday afternoon and evening. The main threat for any severe storms during this timeframe is damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-082230- Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound- Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay- Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay- Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from 20 to 60 NM- 427 PM CST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST MONDAY... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama and northwest Florida. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov/mob (see Fast Access Product Section) for more information about the following hazards. Small Craft Advisory. Winds and seas continue to build through the weekend ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, which will bring hazardous conditions for small craft. Heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday into Saturday night. Winds and seas will be higher in and around any showers and thunderstorms this weekend.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 3:52 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 38 min | |
| Dec 8, 5:00 PM CST | Special Marine Warning | MOB | 90 min | |
| Dec 8, 5:47 PM CST | Areal Flood Advisory | MOB | Mobile | 118 min |
Nearby
High Surf Advisories in Florida, 2018High Surf Advisories in Alabama, 2018Every high surf advisory in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.