High Surf Advisory 5, NWS Mobile, AL

944 
WHUS44 KMOB 080420
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1120 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-081300-
/O.CON.KMOB.SU.Y.0005.181008T1200Z-181011T1000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-181011T1000Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
1120 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 5 AM
CDT THURSDAY...

* WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida.

* WAVES AND SURF...Surf heights will quickly build through 
  midweek. Surf heights of 3 to 5 feet on Monday will increase 
  to 5 to 8 feet on Tuesday and 8 to 10 feet on Wednesday. 

* TIMING...The surf will be very dangerous through early 
  Thursday morning and potentially through Friday. 

* Impacts...Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. 
  The surf is dangerous for all level of swimmers. Minor beach 
  erosion is likely, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

There is a high risk of rip currents.  Rip currents are life-
threatening to anyone entering the surf.  Swim near a lifeguard.
If caught in a rip current remain calm.  Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline.  If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.  If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current.

A High Surf Advisory means that high surf will affect beaches in
the advisory area, producing localized beach erosion and
dangerous swimming conditions.

&&

$$

342 
WHUS44 KMOB 081212
CFWMOB

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Mobile AL
712 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

...DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-090000-
/O.UPG.KMOB.SU.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-181011T1000Z/
/O.NEW.KMOB.SU.W.0002.181009T0600Z-181011T0000Z/
/O.CON.KMOB.RP.S.0023.000000T0000Z-181011T1000Z/
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Coastal-
712 AM CDT Mon Oct 8 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...
...HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TUESDAY TO 7 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a High Surf
Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM Tuesday to 7 PM CDT
Wednesday. The High Surf Advisory is no longer in effect. 

* WHERE...Gulf beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida.

* WAVES AND SURF...Surf heights will quickly build through
  midweek. Surf heights will increase from between 8 to 10 feet
  tonight and Tuesday. Surf heights between 10 to 15 feet are
  expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. 

* TIMING...The surf will be very dangerous and life threatening
  through Thursday morning. 

* Impacts...Frequent life-threatening rip currents are expected. 
  The surf is dangerous for all level of swimmers. Minor beach 
  erosion is likely, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A High Surf Warning indicates that dangerous, battering waves
will pound the shoreline. This will result in life-threatening
conditions.

There is a high risk of rip currents.  Rip currents are life-
threatening to anyone entering the surf.  Swim near a lifeguard. 
If caught in a rip current remain calm.  Don't fight the current.
Swim in a direction following the shoreline.  If unable to
escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.  If tired,
float or tread water until out of the rip current.

&&

$$

JLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
106 PM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Showers and storms moving northwest over the
coastal waters this morning recently pushed a broken cloud deck
into MOB and BFM terminals. Isolated showers and storms will
persist near the AL/MS coastline this afternoon. Elsewhere, a
scattered cu field with VFR conditions can be expected through
early evening. East to southeast winds (gusty at times near PNS
terminal) will continue through Monday. 07/MB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...
Majority VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
Winds gradually shift southeasterly during the daylight hours.
DJ/17

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 518 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Mid-level ridge over the
East Coast continues to be the main synopic driver for easterly
winds locally. Throughout the day the southeast CONUS and parts of
the lower Mississippi river valley experience significant drying in
the mid-levels overland. Average 1000-500mb relative humidity
remains below 30% making it very difficult for convective
development inland. The majority of the forecast area should again
see warmer than normal temperatures in the low 90s Sunday. High-res
models are showing the possibility for scattered showers near the
coast and offshore where storms flair off the eastern side of an
upper-level trough centered over southern Alabama. As this trough
moves northward overnight, the weak upper-level jet over the central
Gulf of Mexico moves with it creating a more hospitable shear
environment for Tropical Depression 14. DJ/17

.A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...

The deeply-reflected ridge over the region continues to shift
eastward. Upstream, upper level shortwave energy propagating
through the longwave trough over the Rocky Mountain states drives
a cold front into the midwestern states. Southward a tropical
storm is projected to move into the Southern Gulf of Mexico Monday
then move northward into the Northern Gulf by Tuesday night.
Winds and wave swells are expected to begin increasing along the
Gulf Coast and create a high risk of dangerous rip currents from
Monday through late Wednesday night. Increasing cloud clover and
shower activity throughout the period will keep daytime high
temperatures in the upper to mid 80s. /08

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The probability of the
northern gulf being impacted by a tropical cyclone around the
middle of the week is rising. There is still considerable
uncertainty as to it's exact track and what the intensity will be
once it makes landfall. NHC is currently issuing advisories on TD
14 near Belize and are projecting it to intensify as it moves into
the Gulf of Mexico potentially becoming a hurricane once it makes
landfall. The operational GFS and ECMWF, as well as the UKMET all
have the center possibly making landfall along the Western
Florida Panhandle somewhere between from somewhere near Destin
eastward to near Mexico Beach. The individual model ensemble
members have even a wider spread from near the MS/AL border east
to Cedar Key. Again, there still exists a great deal of
uncertainty as to the strength, track and timing of this
developing system. A reconnaissance aircraft is expected to fly in
to the developing system today and should be able to provide us
more details as to its current strength and the exact location of
the center.

This is the time to be prepared, ensuring that your hurricane
plan is updated and ready to implement if required. Additional
information will be provided as overall confidence regarding local
impacts increase.

Models are still projecting drier and cooler air into the region
this weekend in the wake of a cold front. /08

MARINE...High pressure system off the eastern seaboard allows the moderate to
strong east to southeast wind regime to remain in place over the
northern Gulf of Mexico for the first 48 hours. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms remain possible during the weekend. Early
in the week, the offshore waters become more influenced by Tropical
Depression 14. As the system enters the central Gulf, the increased
pressure gradient enhances the easterly winds over the open water.
Additionally expect increased wave heights through the middle of
next week. The intensity of these impacts remain highly correlated
to the eventual strength of TD14. As such mariners should remain
vigilant for hazardous conditions through most of this week. DJ/17

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Wednesday
     night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through late Wednesday
     night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mobile AL
730 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

ALZ265-266-FLZ202-204-206-081230-
Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Coastal-
730 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Alabama and
northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for dangerous rip currents along the
Gulf beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

 High Rip Current Risk.

There is a high risk for dangerous rip currents along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida Monday through at least
the middle part of next week.

Tropical Depression 14 will be lifting northward across the Gulf of
Mexico early this week and may spread tropical storm impacts across
all or portions of the forecast area. There still remains uncertainty
with respect to the eventual track, intensity, and timing. This will
determine if and or where the greatest impacts will occur. Please
closely monitor the latest tropical information from both the
National Weather Service office in Mobile and the National Hurricane
Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ALZ051>060-261>264-FLZ201-203-205-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-081230-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Escambia Inland-Santa Rosa Inland-Okaloosa Inland-
Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
730 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a moderate risk for dangerous rip currents along the
Gulf beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a high risk for dangerous rip currents along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and northwest Florida Monday through at least
the middle part of next week.

Potential Tropical Cyclone 14 will be lifting northward across
the Gulf of Mexico early this week and may spread tropical storm
impacts across all or portions of the forecast area. There still
remains uncertainty with respect to the eventual track, intensity,
and timing. This will determine if and or where the greatest
impacts will occur. Please closely monitor the latest tropical
information from both the National Weather Service office in
Mobile and the National Hurricane Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-081230-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
730 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Over costal waters Small Craft should exercise caution today for
east winds of 15 to 20 kts

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Tropical Depression 14 will be lifting northward across the Gulf of
Mexico early this week and may spread tropical storm impacts across
the marine areas. There still remains uncertainty with respect to the
eventual track, intensity, and timing. This will determine where the
greatest impacts from strong winds and high seas will occur. Please
closely monitor the latest tropical information from both the
National Weather Service office in Mobile and the National Hurricane
Center.