Alert archive / Alabama / Flash Flood Watches in 2018

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Mobile, AL

July 31, 20189 counties in Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida

NWS Mobile, AL issued this flash flood watch at Jul 31, 2018, 1:50 PM CDT for 9 counties in Alabama; Escambia County, Okaloosa County, Santa Rosa County, Florida. It took effect at Jul 31, 2018, 7:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 43 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 31, 2018, 1:50 PM CDT (18:50 UTC)
In effect from
Jul 31, 2018, 7:00 PM CDT
Expired
Aug 2, 2018, 2:02 PM CDT
In force
43 hr
Issued by
NWS Mobile, AL
Flood severity
None

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 122 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 224 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2018-07-31Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1491 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2018-07-31The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 180 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1491 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-47 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
749 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
180 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.3
Supercell composite
6.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

698 
WGUS64 KMOB 311850
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
150 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

ALZ055>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-010300-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.A.0003.180801T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-
Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, 
Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard,
Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
150 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest 
  Florida, including the following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin 
  Central, Baldwin Coastal, Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, 
  Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, 
  Mobile Inland, and Monroe. In northwest Florida, Escambia 
  Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, 
  Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* From 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area. 
  Rainfall amounts during the period of 2 to 5 inches are 
  expected, with locally higher amounts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
6 follow-up statements
197 
WGUS64 KMOB 010243
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
943 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

ALZ055>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-011200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-
Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, 
Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard,
Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
943 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, 
  Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, and 
  Monroe. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia 
  Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, 
  and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area. 
  Rainfall amounts during the period of 2 to 5 inches are 
  expected, with locally higher amounts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
656 
WGUS64 KMOB 010720 AAA
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
220 AM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

ALZ054-011800-
/O.EXA.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-
Including the cities of Camden and Pine Hill
220 AM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Mobile has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of south central 
  Alabama, including the following area, Wilcox. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area. 
  Rainfall amounts during the period of 2 to 5 inches are 
  expected, with locally higher amounts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

ALZ055>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-011800-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-
Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-
Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Homewood, Monroeville, Evergreen, 
Greenville, Brantley, Luverne, Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, 
Andalusia, Opp, Citronelle, Saraland, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard,
Theodore, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, 
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Grand Bay, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, 
Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
220 AM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, 
  Escambia, Mobile Central, Mobile Coastal, Mobile Inland, and 
  Monroe. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia 
  Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, 
  and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area. 
  Rainfall amounts during the period of 2 to 5 inches are 
  expected, with locally higher amounts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
506 
WGUS64 KMOB 011846
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
146 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

ALZ054-055-261-263-265-012000-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Wilcox-Monroe-Mobile Inland-Mobile Central-Mobile Coastal-
Including the cities of Camden, Pine Hill, Homewood, Monroeville,
Citronelle, Saraland, Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, Bayou La Batre,
Dauphin Island, and Grand Bay
146 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Alabama and
southwest Alabama has been cancelled. 

$$

ALZ056>060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-020300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-
Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, Luverne,
Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette,
Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, 
Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, 
Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, 
Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, 
Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, 
and Wright
146 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, and 
  Escambia. In northwest Florida, Escambia Coastal, Escambia 
  Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, 
  and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Thursday evening

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area.
  Rainfall amounts during the period of 2 to 4 inches are possible,
  with locally higher amounts. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
952 
WGUS64 KMOB 020843
FFAMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
343 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

ALZ056>058-020945-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Including the cities of Evergreen, Greenville, Brantley, 
and Luverne
343 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for Conecuh, Butler and Crenshaw counties of south
central Alabama has been cancelled. 

$$

ALZ059-060-262-264-266-FLZ201>206-021645-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Escambia-Covington-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-
Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Andalusia, 
Opp, Stockton, Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, 
Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, 
Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, 
Pensacola Beach, Perdido Bay, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, Gulf Breeze, 
Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, Fort Walton Beach, 
Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
343 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for

* Portions of Alabama and northwest Florida, including the 
  following areas, in Alabama, Baldwin Central, Baldwin Coastal, 
  Baldwin Inland, Covington, and Escambia. In northwest Florida, 
  Escambia Coastal, Escambia Inland, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa 
  Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Friday morning

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area.
  Rainfall amounts during the period of up to 2 inches are
  possible, with locally higher amounts possible. The greatest
  threat of heavy rainfall will be over the western Florida 
  panhandle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
076 
WGUS64 KMOB 021619
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

ALZ059-262-264-266-FLZ201-202-021730-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Escambia-Baldwin Inland-Baldwin Central-Baldwin Coastal-
Escambia Inland-Escambia Coastal-
Including the cities of Atmore, Brewton, Flomaton, Stockton, 
Bay Minette, Daphne, Fairhope, Foley, Spanish Fort, Fort Morgan, 
Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Beulah, 
Ensley, Fort Pickens, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, and Perdido Bay
1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Alabama and northwest
Florida has been cancelled.

$$

ALZ060-FLZ203>206-030030-
/O.CON.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Covington-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Andalusia, Opp, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, 
Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, 
Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
1119 AM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of south central Alabama and northwest Florida, 
  including the following areas, in south central Alabama, 
  Covington. In northwest Florida, Okaloosa Coastal, Okaloosa 
  Inland, Santa Rosa Coastal, and Santa Rosa Inland. 

* Through Friday morning

* Repeated storms with heavy rainfall will affect the area.
  Rainfall amounts during the period of up to 2 inches are
  possible, with locally higher amounts possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$
621 
WGUS64 KMOB 021902
FFAMOB

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Mobile AL
202 PM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

ALZ060-FLZ203>206-022015-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-180803T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Covington-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-Okaloosa Inland-
Okaloosa Coastal-
Including the cities of Andalusia, Opp, Jay, Milton, Bagdad, 
Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Destin, Eglin AFB, 
Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Seminole, Valparaiso, and Wright
202 PM CDT Thu Aug 2 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of south central Alabama and
northwest Florida has been cancelled.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Jul 31, 12:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 12:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1235 PM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z issuance...Bulk of convection is currently north of the
terminals. Lowest cig bases at MVFR categories in the near term.
Winds light and variable except gusty in and near passing tsra.
/10

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Expect mostly MVFR cigs and visibilties through
01.12z. Could also see brief periods of IFR cigs and visibilties.
Lower cigs and visibilities mostly in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms later this morning continuing through
tonight. Winds will be mostly south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots
through 01.12z. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 504 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Tuesday night/...A much wetter pattern is
expected across the forecast area today and overnight in response
to a deepening upper trof approaching from the west, leading to
good forcing in the mid levels later today and tonight, combined
with a deep moisture column, precip water values from 2 to 2.25,
across much of deep south generally along the northern Gulf
coast. For now we will continue with a limited risk graphic for
minor to nuisance type flooding today and tonight though monitor
this developing situation closely for possible updates if needed.
Through tonight rainfall totals will generally be around 1 to 2
inches across most of the region, especially over northwestern
counties. Both GFS and ECMWF show a slow progression to the east
with the deepening system approaching from the west supporting the
heavy rain threat in the near term pd continuing into Wed.
Currently, SPC also has a marginal risk for severe weather
development through tonight generally for damaging straight line
winds and hail though with plenty of deep moisture in place, near
seasonal instability and limited shear believe the severe threat
will be mostly isolated further south through tonight.

Believe the heavy rain threat will come in two rounds through
tonight with the first round beginning late this morning continuing
through early this evening followed by a second round after midnight
tonight continuing through much of Wed morning. Depending on the
amount of rain the forecast area receives today in the first round
will likely lead to any significant updates if needed for tonight
and later in the week.

Due to cloudy skies and widespread precip high temps today will
likely remain in the middle to upper 80s for all locations. Lows
tonight will be near or just above seasonal norms, ranging from the
lower 70s for most inland areas generally north of of the I-10
corridor, and the middle to upper 70s further south to the immediate
coast. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...Sharp mid/upper
level trough that moves toward the forecast area in the near term
will stall from the western Great Lakes southward all the way to
the northwest/north central Gulf of Mexico during the middle part
of the week. A weak surface trough will linger just to the west of
the forecast area during mid week while a surface high pressure
ridge remains to our east. This will maintain a mostly light but
very moist southerly low level wind flow across the region during
the short term period. Precipitable water values are expected to
remain between 1.8 to just over 2 inches, thus periods of heavy
rain will be possible.

With the mid/upper trough located just to our west, models
indicate that several pieces of shortwave energy will round the
base of the trough and lift northeast across our area through the
short term period. While it is difficult to predict the exact
timing and location of these features, they will aid in the
continuation of mostly numerous showers and thunderstorms across
the region Wednesday through late Thursday.

A few stronger storms to briefly severe storms possible through
the short term period, but heavy rainfall will remain the primary
threat. Additional widespread rainfall totals Wednesday through
Thursday night could range from generally 1.0 to 2.0 inches west
of I-65, and from 2.0 to 3.5 inches east of I-65 and over our
coastal counties of Alabama and the western Florida panhandle.
Localized higher amounts, especially along the alabama coast and
the western Florida panhandle up to 5 inches will be possible.

With abundant cloud cover and widespread rains, daytime high
temperatures will be lower than much of the past week, with
daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s on both Wednesday
and Thursday. Overnight low temperatures wednesday night and
Thursday night will range from the lower 70s over most of the
interior to the middle 70s along the coast. 12/DS

LONG TERM /Friday Through Monday/...The upper level trough to
our west will remain nearly stationary, but very slowly weaken,
beginning Friday, with mid/upper ridging building into the region
from the east over the weekend and into Monday. Surface high
pressure will also be building in from the east through most of
the mid and late long term period. Kept scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Friday, but
convection less widespread Saturday through Monday as ridging
builds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
forecast over the weekend into Monday, with the best chances
occurring during the daylight hours. High temperatures still in
the 80s on Friday, but return to the 90s Saturday through Monday.
Nighttime low temperatures remain in the low to mid 70s through
the period. 12/DS

MARINE...Main concern through the remainder of the week will be
better coverage of showers and thunderstorms over all marine
locations beginning later this morning continuing through early Fri.
A deepening upper trof approaching from the west combined with deep
atmospheric moisture across much of the northern and central Gulf
will give way to several rounds of heavy precip across the marine
area this week. Wind gusts possibly exceeding 34 knots leading to
locally higher waves, frequent lightning and very heavy rain
reducing visibilties to less than one nautical mile will likely
accompany the stronger thunderstorms through the week. With this
pattern a light to moderate south to southwest wind flow will
continue over the marine area through Fri followed by a light to
moderate east to southeast wind flow over the weekend and into
early next week as the upper trof over the region begins to weaken
and retrograde to the west, combined with a deep upper ridge over
the western Atlantic shifting west, building over the southeast
states and eastern gulf over the weekend. Seas are expected to
build to 3 to 4 feet over the open Gulf waters by Thu due to the
moderate onshore flow and better fetch. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 5:16 AM CDT, 8 hours 34 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
516 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011030-
Choctaw-Washington-Clarke-Wilcox-Monroe-Conecuh-Butler-Crenshaw-
Escambia-Covington-Mobile Inland-Baldwin Inland-Mobile Central-
Baldwin Central-Mobile Coastal-Baldwin Coastal-Escambia Inland-
Escambia Coastal-Santa Rosa Inland-Santa Rosa Coastal-
Okaloosa Inland-Okaloosa Coastal-Wayne-Perry-Greene-Stone-George-
516 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Alabama,
southwest Alabama, northwest Florida and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tonight possibly leading to some minor nuisance flooding later today
and overnight. Gusty winds and frequent cloud to ground lightning
will also accompany the stronger thunderstorms through tonight.

There is a moderate risk for dangerous rip currents along the gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue over the
forecast area Wednesday through early Friday possibly leading to some
localized flooding each day through early Friday. Gusty winds and
frequent cloud to ground lightning will also accompany the stronger
thunderstorms throughout the week.

A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected along the Gulf
beaches of Alabama and Northwest Florida Wednesday through late in
the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675-011030-
Northern Mobile Bay-Southern Mobile Bay-Mississippi Sound-
Perdido Bay-Pensacola Bay System-Western Choctawhatchee Bay-
Eastern Choctawhatchee Bay-
Coastal waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL
out 20 NM-Waters from Pensacola FL to Pascagoula MS from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Okaloosa Walton County Line FL to Pensacola FL from
20 to 60 NM-
516 AM CDT Tue Jul 31 2018
Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected over
the marine area later today and tonight. Periods of very heavy rain
reducing visibilties to less than one nautical mile, frequent
lightning and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the coastal waters of Alabama
and northwest Florida.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected over
the marine area later today and tonight. Periods of very heavy rain
reducing visibilties to less than one nautical mile, frequent
lightning and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms can be expected over
the marine area through early Friday. Periods of very heavy rain
reducing visibilties to less than one nautical mile, frequent
lightning and gusty winds will accompany the stronger storms.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 11:43 AM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1143 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ261-MSZ076-079-311715-
Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
1143 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WEST
CENTRAL MOBILE...GEORGE AND SOUTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215
PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles
southwest of Lucedale, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8853 3085 8833 3073 8855 3073 8873
      3081 8880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 231DEG 14KT 3079 8868
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 11:46 AM CDT, 2 hours 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ059-060-FLZ205-311715-
Escambia AL-Covington AL-Okaloosa Inland FL-
1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA...SOUTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTHEASTERN OKALOOSA
COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

At 1146 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 11 miles
northwest of Laurel Hill, or 17 miles southwest of Andalusia, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Florala and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8639 3098 8639 3095 8670 3110 8680
      3137 8645 3100 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1646Z 231DEG 14KT 3108 8661
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 11:56 AM CDT, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ056>058-060-311730-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
1156 AM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN BUTLER...SOUTHWESTERN CRENSHAW...EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

At 1156 AM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles east of
McKenzie, or 18 miles northwest of Andalusia, moving northeast at 20
mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana, McKenzie, Red Level and Dozier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3135 8669 3171 8685 3183 8651 3148 8629
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 238DEG 16KT 3154 8665
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:15 PM CDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ058-060-311745-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHERN CRENSHAW AND EASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM CDT...

At 1214 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 10 miles
southwest of Opp, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, Florala and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8619 3099 8633 3099 8637 3127 8657
      3150 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 231DEG 21KT 3117 8637
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 12:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ058-060-311815-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND EASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
CDT...

At 1239 PM CDT, the strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles southwest
of Opp, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp and Lockhart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3151 8620 3111 8619 3099 8636 3127 8657
      3155 8615 3154 8615
TIME...MOT...LOC 1739Z 234DEG 20KT 3124 8632
Special weather statement, Jul 31, 1:11 PM CDT, 39 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

ALZ052-053-261-MSZ067-075-076-311900-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
111 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2018

...CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES... NORTHWESTERN MOBILE...WASHINGTON...SOUTH CENTRAL
CLARKE...PERRY... SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 200
PM CDT...

At 109 PM CDT, Clusters of strong thunderstorm were located from
central Washington county in Alabama to southern Perry county in
Mississippi. Storm motion northeast at 20 mph.

Winds gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chatom, Leakesville, Saint Stephens, Wagarville, Deer Park, Tibbie,
Beaumont, New Augusta, McLain, State Line, Fruitdale and McIntosh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is possible with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio stations
and available television stations for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8915 3166 8816 3127 8780 3128 8782
      3125 8784 3100 8875 3100 8883 3097 8884
      3091 8906 3091 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 238DEG 17KT 3122 8857

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 31, 9:38 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMOB22 min
Jul 31, 10:00 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBConecuh, Escambia60 min
Jul 31, 10:21 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBBaldwin, Escambia16 min
Jul 31, 10:30 AM CDTSpecial Marine WarningMOB38 min
Jul 31, 10:52 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBEscambia53 min
Jul 31, 11:03 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBConecuh, Escambia, Monroe57 min
Jul 31, 11:32 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBMobile28 min
Jul 31, 11:35 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBWashington40 min
Jul 31, 11:40 AM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBButler65 min
Jul 31, 11:46 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBCovington29 min
Jul 31, 11:56 AM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBButler34 min
Jul 31, 12:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBCovington30 min
Jul 31, 12:39 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBCovington36 min
Jul 31, 1:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBWashington49 min
Jul 31, 2:03 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBClarke42 min
Jul 31, 2:27 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMOBChoctaw48 min
Jul 31, 2:38 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBChoctaw3 hr
Jul 31, 3:04 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningMOBChoctaw3 hr
Jul 31, 4:18 PM CDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMOBWilcox3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Alabama, 2018Flash Flood Watches in Florida, 2018Every flash flood watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.