Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1033 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

.UPDATE...
Debris cloudiness from this morning's convection over the
Atlantic is dissipating, though it continues to disrupt surface-
based heating across Volusia and northern Brevard counties where
temperatures remain in the 70s. Elsewhere, temps have warmed into
the 80s in moderate and humid southeast flow. Onshore flow will
maintain ample moisture today, with PWATs advertised around 2.0".
This morning's marine activity will continue to transition
onshore across the Treasure Coast, before diurnally-driven
convection develops along the Atlantic sea breeze and transitions
inland.

This morning's package remains on track with higher PoPs across
the interior and along the Treasure Coast (>50%). Nudged precip
chances down to 30% along the Volusia Coast as this morning's
debris will likely keep afternoon storm coverage well inland from
this area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ample moisture in sultry southeast flow will keep scattered
coverage of SHRA/TSRA in the forecast today, initially south of
KMLB this morning as activity moves off the Atlantic, and then
further inland this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland.
Coverage of late morning and early afternoon diurnal convection
along the Atlantic sea breeze still not enough to merit TEMPO
groups for the coastal corridor. Went with 2-hour TEMPO groups for
the inland aerodromes within the 18Z- 23Z VCTS time frame.

&&

.MARINE...Today through Saturday...Surface ridge axis north of the
area will maintain E/SE winds across the waters through the end of
the week (and into the weekend). Wind speeds will generally range
from 5-10 knots near shore and occasionally 10-15 knots offshore.
Seas continue in the 1-2 foot range near shore and 2-3 feet offshore
in a short (4-5s) period wind chop combined with a small 7-8s period
groundswell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  75  89  75 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  92  76  92  76 /  50  10  50  10
MLB  90  78  89  78 /  40  20  30  20
VRB  89  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  20
LEE  92  77  93  76 /  50  10  50  20
SFB  91  76  92  75 /  50  10  40  10
ORL  92  76  93  75 /  50  10  50  10
FPR  89  76  89  75 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Ulrich/Pendergrast

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-282200-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1003 AM EDT Tue Aug 28 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered showers and lightning storms near the coast will move
and develop inland as the Atlantic sea breeze develops shortly
after noon and then moves steadily into the interior during the
middle and late afternoon. Most, if not all the activity will be
west of the local area by sunset. The highest chances for storms
today will be west of Interstate 95, and especially inland during
the peak heating from mid to late afternoon.

Any storms that form will move toward the west or west-northwest
at 10 to 15 mph. Cloud to ground lightning strikes, locally heavy
downpours up to around an inch or so, and brief gusty winds will
accompany a few of the storms that develop.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Locally heavy rain of an inch or greater will produce nuisance
standing water in low spots and on roadways. Slow down and allow
extra time to reach your destination.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
A few storms will also be capable of produce wind gusts near 35
knots over the near shore Atlantic waters, as well as near the
Intracoastal Waterway, and on inland lakes. The best chance for
this to occur will be around Lake Okeechobee, where interaction
with the lake breeze is possible.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River at Geneva, Sanford, and Astor is forecast to
remain above Action Stage this week with levels remaining steady or
only slightly falling.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered afternoon showers and lightning storms are forecast
through the end of the week, with the highest coverage expected
over the interior. The main storm threats continue to be cloud to
ground lightning strikes, gusty winds, and local ponding of water
from torrential downpours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

Pendergrast

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
121 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

FLZ053-058-281800-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-
121 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Kissimmee Prarie Preserve, or 10 miles south of Lake
Marian, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee Prarie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2758 8116 2760 8114 2764 8114 2765 8113
      2766 8113 2768 8115 2771 8115 2773 8117
      2774 8116 2775 8118 2776 8117 2778 8119
      2782 8121 2779 8093 2755 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 089DEG 12KT 2773 8103

Combs