Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
314 PM EDT Thu Aug 9 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Storms from mid to late afternoon are expected to
increase over ECFL given westerly deep layer winds and a diffuse
west coast boundary moving across the area. Current forecast keeps
sct coverage in place through sunset with steady tapering off of
activity through late tonight while lingering storms move toward
the east coast and off the beaches of Volusia and Brevard
counties.

Fri...Similar regime remains in place for Fri as ridge remains
south of the area. Development of diurnal storms over the favored
eastern portion of the peninsula wl occur. Guid continues to
suggest at least sct coverage, with slightly better chcs over the
central to southern half of the area and along the coast once
again from from mid to late afternoon.

from prev disc...

Sat...Broadly cyclonic pattern over the eastern seaboard
continues thru week's end, which will keep the axis of the Bermuda
Ridge suppressed south of Lake-O and the Nrn Bahamas. This in
turn will generate a westerly flow thru the H100-H70 lyr acrs the
region, a flow pattern that will concentrate diurnal precip over
the east central peninsula.

Sun-Wed... Troffing pattern will persist east of the MS River
Valley into early next week before gradually dampening out into
mid week. This will allow the Bermuda Ridge axis to slowly build
into central FL, with the H100-H70 mean flow gradually backing
from SW on Sun to due S by daybreak Wed. The increasing southerly
component will tap sufficient tropical moisture to push PoPs into
the 50-60pct range Sun/Mon. A new slug of dry air is fcst to
advect into FL by midweek. PoPs will continue to favor the east
coast thru Tue, but dropping back to 30- 40pct, then 30pct
areawide on Wed as low/mid lvl flow orients itself to S/SE,
parallel to the central FL Peninsula. No sig change in PoPs as the
prevailing srly wind component keeps them AOA climo...maxes
L/M90s, mins L/M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Stronger west winds today have led to an early start to convection
with some early afternoon showers moving across the interior
areas/terminals. Based on latest trends in HRRR and local WRF models
it seems showers and storms will affect a majority of the terminals
across the area this afternoon. Based on this I included TEMPO
groups for the possibility of strong storms producing brief periods
of MVFR/IFR visibilities. The likely period of shower and
thunderstorm impact will be from approximately 09/19Z-22Z for the
interior terminals, and from approximately 09/20Z-23Z for the
coastal terminals. Storms should dissipate and/or move offshore
after sunset, with VFR conditions prevailing overnight. With a low
chance of showers/storms for Friday, I've held off on adding a
VCSH/VCTS group at KMCO with the 09/18Z TAF package.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Wly steering flow may allow some storms to push just
offshore later in the day/toward sunset from convection that
develops over the interior and can push back toward the coast.
Outside of this activity favorable winds and seas can be expected.

Fri-Mon...Broad troffing pattern over the ern seaboard will keep the
Bermuda ridge axis in the vcnty of Lake-O and the nrn Bahamas into
early next week. Light to gentle SWrly breeze will prevail, backing
to S/SE in the early aftn/late evng hrs due to the sea breeze
circulation. Seas AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore on Fri,
subsiding to AOB 2FT areawide Fri night thru Mon. Primary marine
threat will be sct tsras moving offshore each aftn.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The river level on the Saint Johns River at Astor is forecast to
remain nearly steady in minor flood stage late this week, then
begin to slowly decline this weekend into early next week. The
river may recede below Minor Flood Stage over the next 5 days, but
will remain elevated above Action Stage beyond the forecast
period. Elsewhere, river levels are forecast to remain within
Action Stage over the next 5 days.

Please refer to our River Flood Warnings/Statements (FLSMLB) and
Hydrologic Statements (RVSMLB) for the most recent stage and
forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  92 /  30  40  30  50
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
MLB  74  92  75  91 /  30  40  30  50
VRB  72  92  73  91 /  30  40  30  50
LEE  77  93  76  93 /  10  30  20  40
SFB  77  94  77  94 /  20  30  20  40
ORL  77  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  40
FPR  73  91  72  90 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

JP/TES/KR