Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.UPDATE...Large scale outflow boundary and attendant strong/severe
convection has thoroughly worked over the local air mass as pretty
much every obs site has dropped to 73-75F. Redevelopment of strong
storms well back to the NW continues to weaken as it gets driven ESE
to SE into the stable cooler pooled air mass over ECFL, although it
continues to produce TS from Osceola/Brevard northward.

TS chances will continue in this area for several more hours but
eventually give way to mostly showers as residual instability still
in place over the western peninsula gets used up. Think the best
chance for any lingering TS after midnight will be along and perhaps
a little east of the Kissimmee River basin, given the copious rains
that have fallen N-NE of this area. Forecast update will keep highest
POPs across the north, transitioning toward a gradual lowering of
overall coverage after midnight.

&&

.AVIATION...Occasional MVFR to IFR VSBYs in SHRA/TS continue, mainly
from KISM-KMCO-KTIX north and westward. Based on radar trends, the
threat for lightning steadily diminish across this area by about 04Z.
In addition, this activity appears likely to reach KMLB by 03Z or
so, but will probably have a more trouble getting much farther S/E
toward the KVRB-KSUA corridor while still holding together. Will
continue to monitor and AMD local TAF set as needed, a common theme
today.

&&

.MARINE...This afternoon featured the entirety of the MAOR being
under a SMW at one time or another, with peak winds of 40-45KT and
local seas as high as 5FT. Based on radar trends, expect debris rain
with perhaps a few embedded TS through late evening, with
redevelopment of some storms possible, mainly over the Gulf Stream
later tonight. Seas mainly 2-3FT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Some fairly decent rainfall fell across the upper SJR
basin today. Of primary concern is the level at Astor, which quickly
rose back into Minor Flood Stage early this afternoon near/behind
the squall line. Unlike Saturday, which was wind-related and not
accompanied by a high basin-averaged rainfall, the water level has
yet to come down, which may necessitate reissuing the River Flood
Warning for that site.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Cristaldi
RADAR....Smith/Ulrich
IMPACT WX...Ulrich

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

Mon-Wed...unseasonable/deep trough remains meridionally-aligned from
Great Lakes to eastern Gulf of Mexico through mid week. Mid-level
cyclone cuts off within base of trough and meanders over GA/AL
Mon/Tue. This pattern aloft will induce a weak/quasi-stationary
area of surface low pressure across GA/AL/FL panhandle, forcing a
persistent stream of tropical moisture across the CWA early/mid
week. Multiple clusters of showers/storms will pinwheel from the
Gulf and across east-central FL, resulting in numerous daytime and
scattered overnight convection. Coverage will be much above
normal Mon-Wed, although greatest focus/POPs expected Tue. Periods
of heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts will be the great
hazards this period. Max temps a few degrees below climo given
extensive cloud cover and high convective coverage.

Thu-Sat...Mid level trough will gradually fill and lift north late
week. Low level ridge builds westward from the Atlantic, with axis
establishing across the FL straits Thu/Fri, lifting north toward
central peninsula Sat. Low/mid level flow remains southerly
through late week, then lifting ridge will allow gradient winds to
back onshore, becoming E/SE across the southern CWA Fri and all
areas Sat. This pattern change should allow transition to more
typical mid summer weather, with scattered late night/morning
coastal showers along coast and convection spreading inland and
increasing during the day. Still appears to be source of
sufficient deep layer moisture upstream to keep POPs at or above
climo. Have nudged extended range blended POP guidance toward
climo, but still high-end scattered coverage. Temps near climo.
&&

.AVIATION...Strong to severe storms will overspread the area from
north to south through the course of this afternoon and this
evening. Torrential rainfall with IFR visibilities, frequent to
excessive lightning, and wind gusts in excess of 40 KT will be
possible. This activity has been confined north of ISM-TIX, but
will reach MLB-VRB-FPR by late afternoon into early evening.
TSRA/SHRA could last into the early overnight hours and additional
TEMPO groups may be needed. Afterwards, VFR conditions expected
through Monday morning then scattered to numerous showers and
storms are anticipated Monday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Surface ridge to our south will keep winds from the
southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will be 2 feet nearshore and 3
feet offshore, except up to 4 feet well offshore. An outflow
boundary dropping south will continue to generate additional
storms with strong wind gusts over 35 knots, mainly from Cape
Canaveral southward through this evening.

Previous Discussion...

Mon-Thu...persistent surface trough over or just west of peninsula
through mid week will result in moderate SW/S winds, with seas 2-3
ft near the coast, ranging to 4-5 ft well offshore. Ridge will
begin to build west toward FL straits Thu, causing pressure
gradient to begin to relax, with winds weakening and backing SSE.
Seas 2-3 near shore and up to 4 ft offshore. Scattered to numerous
showers/storms moving off the peninsula Mon-Wed, then scattered
marine convection Thu.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  75  88 /  60  50  30  60
MCO  77  90  76  88 /  60  50  30  70
MLB  78  93  76  89 /  60  60  40  70
VRB  76  93  75  90 /  50  60  40  70
LEE  77  90  77  88 /  60  50  30  70
SFB  78  91  76  89 /  60  50  30  70
ORL  77  90  76  88 /  60  50  30  70
FPR  77  93  75  90 /  50  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
635 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-231000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
635 PM EDT Sun Jul 22 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms will bring a small threat of cloud to
ground lightning through the evening hours before dissipating
late tonight.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney near Geneva remains at
Minor Flood Stage, and a River Flood Warning remains in effect
for this area. The Saint Johns River at Astor, Sanford and Deland
remain near or above Action Stage.

Barring additional significant rainfall over the basin or its
headwaters, river levels are forecast to either remain steady or
very slowly fall through early next week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and storms
are expected this week. The main storm threats will continue to
be frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds and torrential
downpours producing urban, river, and poor drainage flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Ulrich

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