Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
353 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Current-Tonight...Latest radar imagery shows isolated to scattered
thunderstorms advancing eastward across the state, with coverage
increasing to the southwest. Dominant SW flow has confined the
east coast sea breeze to the immediate coast south of Cape
Canaveral, thus a late afternoon boundary collision is likely
along I-95 towards the barrier islands. Latest 15Z XMR sounding
shows slight drying near the surface, allowing for the potential
of gusty winds in strongest convection this afternoon/early
evening. Southwest flow will quickly push showers and storms
offshore tonight, with most convection wrapping up near 00Z.

Limited cloud cover combined with southwesterly flow allowed
temperatures across east central FL to climb to the mid 90s today
with heat indices soaring above 100F.

Tomorrow...Trough dipping into the Deep South will continue to
suppress high pressure over the Atlantic. Weak ridge axis remains
positioned over south FL, continuing strong S/SW flow over the area.
A similar setup expected as today, with the suppression of the east
coast sea breeze in dominant SW flow. PWATs near 2.00" will keep
PoPs hovering near 50% from Melbourne northward. A dry pocket
filters in over Lake Okeechobee, leaving PoPs 30-40% for the
Treasure Coast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
advance eastward across the state, with most convection ending near
sunset.

Slightly above normal high temps persist in the low 90s inland,
approaching the mid 90s along the coast with the lacking sea breeze.
Heat indices soar to 102-105F.

Thurs-Mon... Persistent troffing pattern east of the MS River
Valley will keep the axis of the Bermuda Ridge suppressed over the
south FL Peninsula/FL Straits for the next several days. This, in
turn, will result in W/SW flow thru the lcl column that will
favor the east central peninsula for diurnal precip: Westerly flow
will push the west coast sea breeze rapidly inland while keeping
the east coast breeze pinned along the I-95 Corridor, while
westerly mid lvl steering flow packs shra/tsra activity along the
east FL Coast.

Primary factor for daily precip coverage will be low/mid lvl
moisture, which the latest RAP40 analysis shows is, by and large, on
the low side acrs the region. While current PWat readings on the
order of 2.00", acrs the SE GOMEX/NW Carib RAP40 shows H100-H70 mean
RH values largely AOB 70pct, H85-H50 dewpoint depressions 10-15C,
and PWat values dropping to arnd 1.50".

Diurnal heating will provide sufficient instability to trigger
shra/tsra activity each day, but the general lack of regional
moisture will tend to limit overall coverage.  Latest GFS MOS
guidance seems to have a reasonable handle on this trend with PoPs
generally AOB 50pct. H70 temps arnd 9C and H50 temps arnd -7C will
yield lapse rates arnd 6.0C/KM, so strong/svr storm threat will be
low. Will go with a 50-60pct coverage on Thu, trending down to 30-
50pct coverage into early next week. Temps slightly abv avg due to
the prevailing W/SW flow, aftn maxes in the L/M90s, mrng mins in the
M70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR to brief MVFR in scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening, highest coverage
near KMCO to coastal terminals KDAB to KMLB. Pushing offshore and
weakening by 00Z. Skies will slowly clear to be VFR overnight.
Winds mainly light from the southwest, gusty to around 25 knots in
and near thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Tomorrow...Weak ridge axis over the FL Straits will
continue stronger S/SW flow through the period, with winds 10-15
kts through tomorrow afternoon. Seas will remain 2-3 ft building
to 4 ft in the Gulf Stream waters late in the period. Afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will push offshore with highest coverage
north of Sebastian Inlet.

Thu-Mon...(previous) Troffing pattern over the ern seaboard will
keep the axis of the Bermuda ridge confined to the south FL
Peninsula/FL Straits, resulting in a gentle to moderate S/SW
breeze. Lcl pgrad will be tight enough to maintain a gentle to
moderate W/SW breeze acrs the lcl Atlc, enough to suppress the
formation of the east coast sea breeze until late aftn each day.
Even then, formation is only expected south of Cape Canaveral.
Seas generally 2-3FT...up to 4FT in the Gulf Stream north of
Sebastian Inlet. Sct-nmrs shra/tsras moving offshore each aftn.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River is either above Action Stage
or just above Flood Stage between Geneva and Astor. Little change
is expected through late week.

Near Geneva, just south of Lake Harney, the most recent stage was
8.23 feet, which is above Flood Stage (8.0 feet). The river is
forecast to fall slightly but remain at or just above Flood Stage
into late week. A River Flood Warning remains in effect for this
area.

At Sanford, the most recent stage was 5.1 feet, which is above
Action Stage (4.2 feet). The river is forecast to remain nearly
steady, staying below Flood Stage (5.5 feet) into late week.

Near Deland, the most recent stage was 3.54 feet, which is just
above Action Stage (3.5 feet). The river is forecast to remain
nearly steady into late week.

At Astor, the most recent stage was 2.34 feet, which is just
above Flood Stage (2.3 feet). The river is forecast to remain
nearly steady into late week. A River Flood Warning remains in
effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  91  76  91 /  20  50  30  60
MCO  76  93  76  92 /  20  50  10  50
MLB  77  94  77  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  75  94  75  93 /  30  40  30  30
LEE  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  10  60
SFB  76  93  76  93 /  20  50  20  60
ORL  76  92  77  92 /  20  50  10  50
FPR  75  94  75  93 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-180300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1000 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered storms should form along the west coast sea breeze early
this afternoon, then move steadily across the peninsula into early
evening. Boundary interactions over the east side of the peninsula
late in the day should generate a few strong storms. The main hazard
will be lightning strikes, which will be frequent in a few of the
stronger storms. Gusty winds 40 to 45 mph are also possible.

A few stronger storms may produce quick 2 inch downpours in a 60
to 90 minute period, which could cause temporary ponding of water
in urban and poor drainage areas.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk at area beaches. The
strongest seaward pull from rip currents will be early this
morning, then during the late afternoon and early evening due to
tidal effects. Only swim in the ocean near a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered afternoon storms, a few strong, will move northeast at
10 to 15 knots, crossing the coast and moving well offshore this
evening. A few storms could produce wind gusts 35 knots or
greater.

.RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
The Saint Johns River above Lake Harney, near Geneva, and at
Astor both remain at Minor Flood Stage. A River Flood Warning
remains in effect for these areas. The Saint Johns River near
Sanford and Deland remain at Action Stage.

While some slight changes in stage heights are forecast, river
levels are not expected to significantly rise or fall through
the week.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
are expected into the weekend. The main storm threats will be
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, gusty winds and
torrential downpours producing urban, river and poor drainage
flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not anticipated today.

Lascody/Johnson

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Melbourne FL
621 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

FLZ045-047-147-172300-
Southern Brevard County FL-Northern Brevard County FL-Orange FL-
621 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR central Brevard and southeastern
Orange Counties Until 700 PM EDT....

At 621 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM near
Lone Cabbage Fish Camp...MOVING northeast AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Rockledge, Cocoa, Sharpes, Lone Cabbage Fish Camp and Port Saint
John.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2830 8068 2826 8086 2835 8086 2835 8100
      2836 8102 2853 8077
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 246DEG 12KT 2832 8090

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

FLZ054-058-059-172315-
St. Lucie FL-Okeechobee FL-Indian River FL-
625 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Fort Drum, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Drum.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2738 8072 2747 8088 2772 8075 2758 8047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 215DEG 15KT 2752 8075

Sedlock

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