Alert archive / Florida / Special Weather Statements in 2018
Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL
NWS Melbourne, FL issued this special weather statement at Jul 4, 2018, 12:39 PM EDT for Orange County, Florida. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 4, 2018, 12:39 PM EDT (16:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 4, 2018, 1:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 36 min
- Issued by
- NWS Melbourne, FL
County Orange County, FL
The radar
The Melbourne radar (KMLB), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Cape Canaveral, FL (KXMR), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1092 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1066 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 11 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -7 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 29 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Melbourne, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 4, 10:20 AM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 10:20 AM EDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1020 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018 .DISCUSSION... Morning analysis shows a deep inverted trof over the region...H100- H70 axis extending from the FL Keys to the NC Outer Banks. Aloft, a 60KT easterly jet streak in the H30-H20 lyr passing over the FL/GA boarder, placing central FL under its ascending left front quad. Morning ROABs show decent moisture acrs the area with PWat values generally arnd 1.75"...while RAP40 analysis shows H100-H70 mean RH btwn 70-80pct and H85-H50 dewpoint depressions btwn 3-5C. Enhanced instability on the backside of the trof has allowed sct shras/tsras to dvlp over the lcl Atlc, a few of which have pushed onshore south of Cape Canaveral. As the trof and its closed mid lvl low pass overhead, central FL will gain its ascending flank, setting the stage for nmrs shras and tsras to dvlp with the afternoon heat. Temps aloft have cooled a bit with H70 readings arnd 7C and H50 temps btwn -9C/-10C. While these are yielding only modest mid lvl lapse rates arnd 6.0C/KM, the enhanced upper lvl divergence will couple with the cool mid lvl temps to enhance storm potential this aftn. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning remain the primary storm threats. Those with outdoor activities planned, whether on land or water, should remain weather aware today. Seek shelter at the first sight of threatening weather and remember: when thunder roars, go indoors! Initial activity along the coast this morning will shift west thru the aftn as the east coast sea breeze dvlps and pushes inland. Given the lack of any mid lvl capping, deep convection likely to fire earlier than usual. HRRR/WRF guidance supports this scenario with nmrs shras/tsras peaking over the interior btwn 3PM-7PM. Evening plans should be in good shape tonight the bulk of the diurnal convection focuses over the west peninsula by sunset. Current PoP distribution looks good...no need for any major changes with the mrng update. && .AVIATION...Thru 05/12Z. Sfc Winds: Thru 04/16Z...N/NE 5-8KTS. Btwn 04/16Z-04/19Z...bcmg E/NE 6-9KTS. Btwn 04/21Z-04/24Z...bmcg E/SE 6-9KTS. Btwn 05/03Z-05/06Z... bcmg vrbl AOB 3KTS. Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 04/16Z...coastal sites S of KTIX sct MVFR shras/isold IFR tsras. Btwn 04/16Z-04/24Z...W of KLEE-KFPR nmrs MVFR shras/IFR tsras...E of KLEE-KFPR sct MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Btwn 05/00Z-05/02Z...W of KLEE-KOBE chc MVFR shras/slgt chc IFR tsras...E of KLEE-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras. Aft 05/02Z...coastal sites slgt chc MVFR shras. && .MARINE... Inverted trof extending from the FL Keys to the NC Outer Banks will push acrs the FL peninsula today. As it does, sfc/bndry lyr winds will shift to a light to gentle E/SE breeze acrs the lcl Atlc. Seas AOB 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore. Enhanced instability on the backside of the trof axis will allow sct shras/tsras to dvlp thru the day, with the majority of activity occurring thru early aftn. && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && Bragaw/Lascody
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 5:31 AM EDT, 7 hours 8 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Melbourne FL 531 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018 AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141- 144-147-050000- Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia- Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia- Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm- Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County- Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County- Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin- Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County- Northern Brevard County- 531 AM EDT Wed Jul 4 2018 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. .THUNDERSTORM IMPACT... A weather disturbance passing overhead will generate scattered to numerous lightning storms, especially over inland areas this afternoon. A small threat for lightning will exist this morning in Volusia and Brevard County as a few storms over the Atlantic push onshore. A greater threat for storms is expected this afternoon and early this evening mainly west of Interstate 95. A few of today's storms could become strong with wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning the primary threats. Also, torrential downpours of 1 to 2 inches in a short 60- to 90-minute period could lead to temporary road and drainage flooding. Those with outdoor activities planned on this holiday, whether on land or water, should remain weather aware. Seek shelter at the first sight of threatening weather and remember: when thunder roars, go indoors! .MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT... Scattered afternoon storms will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 30 knots over inland lakes this afternoon. .RIVER FLOOD IMPACT... The Saint Johns River south of Lake Harney near Geneva remains above Minor Flood Stage. Additional slight rises are expected to continue, keeping the river within Minor Flood Stage into this weekend. A River Flood Warning remains in effect for this area. The Saint Johns River level near Sanford remains above Action Stage. Additional slight rises are expected to continue, but remain within Action Stage at this site through this weekend. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. Scattered to numerous afternoon and evening storms are expected to continue into early next week. The main storm threats will be frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, urban, river and poor drainage flooding from torrential downpours, and brief gusty winds. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated today. Ulrich
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 4, 12:39 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1239 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2018 FLZ045-053-041715- Osceola FL-Orange FL- 1239 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT... At 1239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over Austin Tindall Park, or over East Lake Toho, moving west at 5 mph. Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, West Lake Toho and Buena Ventura Lakes. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 2843 8120 2826 8115 2821 8142 2843 8141 TIME...MOT...LOC 1639Z 085DEG 6KT 2834 8130 Combs
The office that day
Everything else NWS Melbourne, FL issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2:35 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | MLB | Lake | 25 min |
| Jul 4, 4:17 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | MLB | Martin | 88 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Florida, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.