Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
946 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Today...Morning precipitable water analysis shows higher values (1.8
to 1.9 inches) than recent days across east central Florida. There
still was a narrow swath of slightly lower values (~1.65 inches)
from Tampa to Melbourne.  500mb temps continue at minus 8-9C and
satellite shows most of the area will have strong morning solar
insolation.  However, some opaque cirrus has been affecting
southeast sections and the models show this will likely persist into
the afternoon.  This may mess up convective initiation there but
eventually with a more moist atmosphere in the south, sea breeze and
outflow boundaries should generate a higher coverage of storms than
recent days.

Across central/northern sections where more heating is expected,
storms will initiate along the east coast sea breeze and should
increase in coverage (30-40%) as boundaries interact over interior
sections. Steering will be weak, so in addition to gusty winds 40-50
mph and frequent lightning strikes, a few storms will drop 2-3
inches of rain in a 60-90 minute period.

Will monitor cloud cover trends in the south and high resolution
models for possible tweaks to PoPs, otherwise not planning any
significant changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR. High resolution models have been showing run-to-run
differences in timing/location of isolated to scattered afternoon
storms.  Generally expect storms to form near to just inland of KSUA-
KFPR-KVRB early this afternoon where moisture is higher (but
extensive cirrus may inhibit/delay convective initiation there).
Greater heating across central/north sections should lead to the
strongest storms a little later in the afternoon, especially near
the interior terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...No wind/sea concerns today as Atlantic ridge was
nudging into the waters.  Seas 2 feet or less and winds less than 10
knots.  The models indicate a nocturnal increase of southerly winds
tonight, with speeds remaining below 15 knots.

There have been a few storms over the southern waters this morning
as higher moisture nudges back northward but these will diminish by
early afternoon.  A few afternoon storms forming over the mainland
could produce gusty outflow winds along the intracoastal waters.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Lascody/Sharp

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1056 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-140300-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1056 AM EDT Wed Jun 13 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms are expected to develop along the east
coast sea breeze as it pushes inland from the coast this
afternoon. The focus for storms will shift to the interior
counties as the afternoon progresses with additional boundary
collisions expected. Into the early afternoon, storm activity may
be a bit slower to develop along the Treasure Coast due to
enhanced cloud cover.

A few strong storms are again likely, and capable of producing
frequent lightning strikes and gusty winds up to 50 mph. Slow
storm motion back toward the east at 10 to 15 mph will produce
some heavy downpours and a quick one to two inches or rain in
spots.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A Moderate Risk of rip currents will exist at the beaches of east
central Florida. The greatest threat will be through 5 pm due to
tidal effects. Always swim within sight of a lifeguard.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Focus for storms will shift toward land areas this afternoon as
the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. A few strong storms will
develop this afternoon which could push back across the
intracoastal waters later in the day. Mariners should be prepared
to seek safe harbor near the coast as well as across inland lakes
this afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
Isolated to scattered storms will develop each afternoon and evening
along sea breeze and outflow boundaries. Locally heavy rainfall,
gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes will occur with some
storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today.

SK/DS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
137 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

FLZ141-131815-
Coastal Volusia FL-
137 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL
215 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Port Orange, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, South Daytona and Holly
Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 8101 2903 8089 2900 8104 2921 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 238DEG 12KT 2912 8101

DWS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
215 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

FLZ141-131845-
Coastal Volusia FL-
215 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM EDT...

At 214 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Smyrna Beach, moving south at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, Oak Hill and Bethune Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2903 8105 2910 8099 2909 8091 2889 8078
      2885 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 338DEG 9KT 2899 8096

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

FLZ041-141-132000-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
325 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM EDT...

At 324 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
west of Spruce Creek, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Ponce Inlet and Spruce
Creek.

LAT...LON 2897 8107 2902 8122 2919 8116 2912 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 202DEG 7KT 2906 8112

Rodriguez