Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Above Normal Rain Chances Will Continue Through The Week and Into
this Weekend...

Currently-Tonight...Convection continues to increase, with numerous
showers and storms expected across the area through late afternoon.
Some stronger storms will continue to be possible, producing
frequent lightning strikes, strong wind gusts in excess of 40 mph,
small hail and localized heavy rainfall of 1-3 inches. Latest
HRRR/WRF model runs keep some lingering shower and thunderstorm
activity into the evening as convection gradually dies down past
sunset. Will keep a chance of rain and a slight chance of storms in
through midnight, but then rain chances should generally end across
most of the area overnight. Mild lows expected with values near or
just below 70 degrees over the interior and low 70s along the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday...Broad deep low pressure area over the eastern
Gulf will gradually shift northward and weaken. However, aloft a
mid/upper level trough axis just to the west will continue a deep
S/SW moisture transport across the region, and allow a more
unsettled/wet pattern to persist. Waves of elevated tropical
moisture will continue to cross the area, with PW values ranging
from 1.8-2.0 inches each day, supporting development of numerous
showers and storms, mainly during the afternoon hours. Strong
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will continue to be a
concern, with some rainfall amounts to 2-3 inches with persistent
showers and storms. Highs each day should reach the mid 80s, with
overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Previous Discussion...

Friday-Sunday...Likely rainfall chances will continue over the
upcoming weekend with high moisture levels over the area and low
level southerly flow gradually becoming SSE/SE over through Sunday.
Precipitable water values will remain well above normal in the 1.9
to 2.0 inch range through the weekend. Some deeper moisture from the
Atlantic may move onshore by Saturday enhancing rainfall potential
initially along the coast and the inland Sat afternoon. There will
be a concern for localized minor flooding for areas that see
repeated heavy rains into the weekend and where heavy rainfall will
have already accumulated over this week. High temps will be in the
lower 80s coastal to mid 80s interior.

Monday-Tuesday...The Atlantic ridge is forecast to strengthen into
early next week and begin to push deeper moisture slightly westward
with developing southeast flow. Higher rain chances should shift
inland with above normal POPs into Monday then decreasing to the
scattered range by Tuesday. High temperatures will warm back to the
mid to upper 80s with gradually lowering convective coverage after
the wet weather this week.

&&

.AVIATION...Showers and storms will continue to increase across
the area into late afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous.
Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this activity and
a few stronger storms will be able to produce strong gusty winds.
This activity will gradually diminish into the evening, with rain
chances ending across most of the area by midnight or soon after.
VFR conditions should then prevail overnight into the morning,
before showers and storms increase again into the afternoon, with
high convective coverage once again expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thursday...A moderate S/SE breeze around 10-15 knots will
generally persist, with a brief increase to 15-20 knots possible
offshore into Wednesday night/early Thursday. Seas will continue to
range from 2-3 feet nearshore up to 4-5 feet offshore. Main
concern for mariners will be above normal coverage of showers and
thunderstorms producing gusty winds as they push off the coast
into the afternoon and early evening both days.

Fri-Sat...SSE winds generally 10-13 knots near shore and around 15
knots offshore will continue seas 3-4 ft near shore up to 5 ft well
offshore. Numerous showers and scattered storms will continue across
the Atlantic waters into late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  83  70  84 /  40  80  40  70
MCO  71  86  71  85 /  30  80  30  70
MLB  72  84  72  84 /  40  80  50  70
VRB  71  85  72  84 /  40  70  50  70
LEE  71  86  71  85 /  40  80  30  70
SFB  70  85  71  85 /  40  80  30  70
ORL  70  85  71  85 /  30  80  30  70
FPR  71  84  72  84 /  40  70  50  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

PUBLIC/MARINE FORECAST...Weitlich
RADAR/IMPACT WX....Bragaw
AVIATION...Glitto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1137 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-
144-147-160345-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia County-
Northern Lake County-Orange-Seminole-Southern Brevard County-
Osceola-Indian River-Okeechobee-St. Lucie-Martin-
Coastal Volusia County-Southern Lake County-
Northern Brevard County-
1137 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Deep southerly will pull high tropical moisture up the eastern
side of a broad, non-tropical area of low pressure over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This moisture will combine with daytime
heating and the local sea and lake breezes to produce numerous
showers and a few lightning storms across east central Florida.

Activity will increase through the afternoon and continue into
the early evening. The highest coverage of precipitation is
expected between 2 PM and 8 PM. Brief gusty winds in excess of 40
MPH and cloud to ground lightning strikes will be possible with
the strongest storms today. Funnel clouds and brief tornadoes will
be possible along the coast and the northeast shore of Lake
Okeechobee as well. Move indoors to safety if you hear thunder or
if skies look threatening.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
The primary threat from storms today will be torrential rainfall.
Between one and three inches, with local higher amounts, can be
expected this afternoon, especially in areas that receive more
than one round of storms. Motorists should reduce their speed
when encountering heavy rain, and never drive into areas where
water covers the roadway.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Wind gusts up to around 35 knots will be possible over the near
shore Atlantic, Intracoastal Waterway, and on inland lakes.
Boaters should be on the lookout for storms approaching from the
south, and move quickly to safe harbor if storms threaten.

.WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
Showers and thunderstorms that develop along the east coast sea
breeze will have the potential to produce brief waterspouts over
the Intracoastal Waterway and the nearshore Atlantic waters.
Boaters should keep an eye for storms approaching from the south
and be prepared to take evasive action if a spout is sighted.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A longshore current running form south to north is expected in
the surf zone at the central Florida Atlantic beaches today due
to a moderate breeze out of the southeast to south. To avoid the
northward pull of a longshore current today, swim toward shore,
but remember to avoid any rip currents that you might encounter.
Never try and swim directly against any current, whether it is a
rip current or a longshore current.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
The low pressure system over the northeast Gulf will move inland
over the Gulf Coast states and weaken by late Wednesday. However,
deep tropical moisture will remain in place through this weekend.
Numerous showers and a few storms are expected each day, mainly
during the afternoon and early evening. Local heavy rain is
expected, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches in the most intense
storms, along with deadly cloud to ground lightning and brief
gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
While formal spotter activation is unlikely to be needed today,
spotters are requested to submit any rainfall reports of 2 inches
or more to the National Weather Service in Melbourne.

Cristaldi/Bragaw

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

FLZ059-064-152045-
St. Lucie FL-Martin FL-
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE AND
WESTERN MARTIN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 355 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Tradition, or 9 miles north of Indiantown, moving
north at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Fort Pierce, Indiantown, White City and Tradition.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2736 8068 2739 8068 2745 8037 2699 8029
      2698 8056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 169DEG 17KT 2716 8046

Smith

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Melbourne FL
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

FLZ045-046-053-152045-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
357 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR Seminole...central Orange and
northern Osceola Counties Until 445 PM EDT....

At 356 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM over
Orlando International Airport...MOVING northeast AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Sanford, Altamonte Springs and Oviedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2883 8141 2882 8122 2880 8120 2880 8118
      2878 8118 2879 8116 2879 8114 2880 8114
      2881 8112 2881 8107 2818 8104 2813 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 214DEG 19KT 2842 8135

Kelly

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Melbourne FL
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

FLZ045-053-152115-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
430 PM EDT TUE MAY 15 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR eastern Orange and northeastern
Osceola Counties Until 515 PM EDT....

At 429 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
miles southwest of Lone Cabbage Fish Camp...MOVING north AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. Funnel
clouds will also be possible.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
Wedgefield, Lone Cabbage Fish Camp, Christmas, Holopaw and Bithlo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS...WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE
LIMBS...CAUSE POWER OUTAGES OR CAPSIZE SMALL BOATS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORM PASSES.

BOATERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS SOMETIMES OCCUR WELL
AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...WHICH WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND MAY LEAD TO TEMPORARY FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. OPEN SHELTERS FOUND IN PARKS...
ON BEACHES OR GOLF COURSES OFFER NO PROTECTION FROM THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING.

&&

LAT...LON 2799 8087 2799 8106 2861 8109 2861 8097
      2856 8093 2853 8094 2851 8089 2847 8087
      2847 8090 2843 8090 2835 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 187DEG 34KT 2830 8097

Kelly

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